Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 9 Picks for Every Game

Thanks to the Chicago Bears cashing in as our upset pick of the week, we managed to squeak out the tiniest of profits with the Week 8 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, going 7-7 for +0.02 units. It wasn't enough to get us back in the green, but it was at least we didn't move backward. We live to bet another day!

It's now time to move on to my picks for Week 9 of the NFL season as we quickly approach the halfway mark of the 2026 season. With just two teams on BYE this week, we have 15 games to watch and bet on.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 8: 7-7 (+0.02 units)
Season-to-date: 58-60-3 (-2.78 units)

NFL Week 9 Best Bets for Every Game

Jaguars vs. Ravens Prediction

The Baltimore Ravens don't have a quarterback, which is obviously a pretty important aspect of being competitive in an NFL game. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are likely out for the game, and their third-string quarterback, Joe Fagnano, is also questionable due to an injury. If he can't go, the Ravens are going to be starting a quarterback who's not on their roster as of me writing this article on Monday night.

That leaves the Ravens' only plan of attack being running the football. Unfortunately, they now have to face a Jaguars defense that ranks second in opponent rush EPA and seventh in opponent rush success rate, while giving up fewer yards per carry than any other defense in the league (3.4).

I could maybe be convinced to take the points with the Ravens if they had an elite defense, but they're completely average on that side of the ball.

It's Jaguars or nothing in this game.

Pick: Jaguars -8.5 (-110) via TheScore Bet

Bengals vs. Falcons Prediction

The Falcons' handful of impressive performances this season have convinced people this team is better than they are. They continue to have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball. Their defense has regressed after a strong start to the season, and Michael Penix Jr. displays accuracy issues on a weekly basis. He now ranks 32nd out of 35 starting quarterbacks this season in completion percentage over expected.

Meanwhile, the Bengals look like a Super Bowl contender; they rank third in offensive weighted EPA per play and 12th in defensive weighted EPA per play. Don't be fooled into thinking their defense is bad because of a down game against the Titans last week. They certainly aren't an elite unit, but an average defense is good enough to let the Cincinnati offense do its thing to win games.

The most important aspect of the Bengals' defense is its ability to stop the run. They rank sixth in opponent rush success rate, and we've already seen the Falcons fail to produce offensively when facing strong run defenses like the Steelers' and Buccaneers'.

I'll lay the points with Cincinnati in Madrid.

Pick: Bengals -3 (-117) via BetRivers

Giants vs. Eagles Prediction

More than any recent season, it seems like we as bettors need to accept that there are some teams we thought were going to be playoff contenders, but are now actually not only bad, but amongst the worst teams in the league. The Philadelphia Eagles are one of those teams. Sure, we can point to injuries as the cause of their downfall, but whatever the issue is, they are truly a bottom-three team.

The Eagles are 31st in net yards per play (-1.2), 29th in both EPA and opponent EPA, 30th in success rate, and 23rd in opponent success rate. They should be far bigger underdogs against a scrappy Giants team that has posted some solid metrics this season.

Much like the Chargers, it's time to completely throw out your preseason priors on this team. It's over in Philadelphia.

Pick: Giants -3 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Broncos vs. Panthers Prediction

There has been a lot of discourse about the Denver Broncos continuing to find ways to win games that some would argue they don't deserve to win. While that may be true, let's take note that they've had the single most difficult schedule in the NFL this season so far. Sure, they've barely squeaked out wins, but they've played against the likes of the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, and Chiefs again. Their only games against bad teams came against the Chargers and Cardinals; in both games, they won comfortably.

They now get to take on a Panthers team that has struggled the past two weeks. Bryce Young isn't as good as he looked early in the season, and this is going to be the best defense he will have faced so far this season.

Denver is going to remind people that despite maybe not being a true Super Bowl-contending team, they're still a significant step above teams at the Panthers' level.

Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-118) via BetMGM

Lions vs. Dolphins Prediction

The Lions got the win against the Vikings in Week 8, but at an enormous cost. They have a laundry list of injuries they're dealing with. The list includes center Cade Mays, linebackers Jack Campbell and DJ Wonnum, safety Brian Branch, and cornerback D.J. Reed. It's hard for me to lay this many points on a road team with this amount of injuries, even if the team they're facing is one of the worst in the league.

Let's also remember that, injuries aside, the Lions' defense has been horrible this season, ranking in the bottom five in almost every single metric.

As tough as it is to bet against the Dolphins against this Lions' offense, there are just too many red flags surrounding Detroit for me to lay more than a touchdown.

Pick: Dolphins +7.5 (-120) via BetRivers

Jets vs. Chiefs Prediction

I think the Jets are a better team than you think they are at first glance. Their offense ranks 13th in weighted EPA per play and 10th in offensive success rate. Their defense has struggled, ranking 21st in opponent weighted EPA per play, but they've done a solid job of stopping the run this season, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry. If they can slow down the Chiefs' run game, they're going to be in a great spot to keep this game within range.

Geno Smith hasn't exactly lit up the box score so far this season, but he ranks fifth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected. He has been effective and has thrown only three interceptions. Not turning the ball over is a big step in covering a big spread as an underdog.

The Chiefs may not be as good as we thought. They had an extremely easy start to their schedule with four straight games against the Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and Chargers, winning two of those games by just a field goal.

I haven't seen enough from Kansas City to bet them to win by double digits against an underrated Jets team.

Pick: Jets +10 (-114) via BetRivers

Browns vs. Saints Prediction

The Saints have the worst run defense in the league, ranking last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. That makes them extremely susceptible anytime they face a team that can effectively run the football. Fortunately for them, Cleveland is one of the worst rushing offenses in football, ranking 27th in rush EPA.

Since the Browns can't take advantage of the Saints' biggest weakness, it's going to be a tough game for them on the road against a New Orleans team that's fresh off a BYE. I'll take the Saints in this one.

Pick: Saints -2.5 (-112) via BetMGM

Rams vs. Commanders Prediction

The Rams are a better team than they get credit for, and they're better than their early-season record. There is no denying that they're dealing with a plethora of injuries, but the Rams are still a top-10 team in almost every area.

The Rams are at their best when they're able to establish the run to help open up the passing game. Now they get to face a Commanders team that's 31st in opponent rush success rate.

The Commanders are dealing with injuries of their own, and I have doubts about Jayden Daniels' ability to carry his team to a win without any big-time weapons to lean on.

I'll lay the points on Los Angeles.

Pick: Rams -5.5 (-109) via Caesars

Cowboys vs. Colts Prediction

I'm going to break my own rule of betting against the Cowboys any time that they're laying points. It makes sense in a lot of situations, but the Colts are the worst team in the entire NFL and are actively getting worse as they continue to sell all their assets. They currently rank dead last in the league in net yards per play at -1.4.

As bad as the Dallas defense is, I'm not willing to bet on the Colts being able to take advantage, considering they rank 31st in the league in EPA per play.

The Cowboys' biggest defensive weakness is their secondary, which is good news for Dallas since they should be able to do an effective job of stopping the run, the Colts' only path to moving the ball.

The Cowboys' top five offense is good enough to lead them to this win.

Pick: Cowboys -5.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Texans vs. Chargers Prediction

If you're one of those people who continue to bet on the Chargers because of your preseason priors or because "they have to cover at some point, don't they?", then stop. Take a step away, and maybe opt not to bet on any Chargers game for the rest of the season.

Blame who or what you want, but this is the worst offense in football, ranking dead last in both EPA per play and success rate, worse than every other team you can think of. It's a dire situation in Los Angeles, and now they have to take on one of the better defenses in the NFL that's coming off a BYE week.

The Texans' offense has also been fairly strong this season as long as Nico Collins is healthy enough to be on the field.

I'll continue to fade the Chargers.

Pick: Texans -4.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Prediction

These kinds of spreads should be reserved for the worst teams in the NFL, and I don't think the Cardinals belong in that discussion, especially with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Arizona has had the second-toughest schedule so far, yet is sitting with a 3-5 record. They also have some strong weapons on offense, including arguably the best tight end in football. Offensively, they rank 13th in the league in success rate and 19th in EPA per play.

The Cardinals' defense is certainly a bottom-10, borderline bottom-five unit, but I'm not so certain that the Seahawks can rack up points regardless. Outside of Jaxson Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks have nothing else to rely on offensively. Their run game is horribly inefficient, and Sam Darnold has taken a step back compared to a season ago.

I'll take Arizona to cover this massive number.

Pick: Cardinals +11.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Packers vs. Patriots Prediction

These two teams are much too similar not to take the side that's getting a field goal's worth of points. They are both teams that are led by efficient quarterbacks who have bad offensive lines and no run game. They are also two teams with defenses that have been better than people expected this season.

They rank sixth and seventh in net yards per play. The Patriots have the advantage in offensive EPA per play at sixth compared to 12th, but the Packers have the advantage in defensive EPA at seventh compared to the Patriots at 16th.

In my opinion, it's a coin-flip game, which leads to the question of how much you value the Patriots' home-field advantage. I think it's a 2-point advantage in this matchup, so I'll take the Packers getting three.

Pick: Packers +3 (-120) via TheScore Bet

Raiders vs. 49ers Prediction

The fact that the Raiders continue to cover and win games baffles me. Their defense has become a bottom-five unit, ranking near the bottom in almost every metric, including 30th in opponent success rate. Their offense can't run the ball, ranking 30th in rush EPA and rush success rate, but Kirk Cousins has turned their passing offense into a top-10 unit, despite ranking 22nd in completion percentage over expected.

While it hasn't worked out for me often, I continue to believe that they're due to be on the wrong end of some blowouts, especially when facing an elite team like the San Francisco 49ers who are coming off their BYE.

Pick: 49ers -9.5 (-112) via BetRivers

Buccaneers vs. Bears Prediction

You can win a lot of games in the National Football League if you can run the ball effectively and play elite defense, and that's exactly what the Buccaneers have been doing. In fact, they shut the Falcons out last week without completing a single pass.

They now enter this week ranked inside the top seven in every rushing metric, second in opponent EPA per play, and third in opponent success rate. We don't currently know what sort of form Baker Mayfield is in, but if he's in peak form when the Bucs need him to take to the air, Tampa Bay is going to be an extremely dangerous team.

I have little bad to say about the Bears, who have proven me wrong about my preseason evaluation of them. What I do think is that this is a sell-high spot on a short week after an emotional win on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Buccaneers +210 via DraftKings

Bills vs. Vikings Prediction

Monday night features a fascinating matchup between two teams that are bizarro world versions of each other. The Bills are first in EPA per play but 27th in opponent EPA per play, while the Vikings are 30th in EPA per play and first in opponent EPA per play. In simple terms, we'll find out what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force.

It's interesting how the market values the side that's all offense and no defense quite a bit more, favoring the Bills by 3.5 points on the road, especially when you consider how much the Bills rely on running the football and now they face the best run defense in the NFL.

If the Vikings can stop the run and get something going on offense, this game is going to be a lot closer than some people expect. I'll take the 3.5 points with Minnesota.

Pick: Vikings +3.5 (-118) via DraftKings

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