Mariners vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, April 28

The Minnesota Twins picked up a series-opening win over the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night, scoring 11 runs to improve to 8-6 at home in the 2026 season.

Now, they’ll have their ace on the mound – righty Joe Ryan – in Game 2 as they look to rebound from a brutal 2-8 stretch that pushed them under .500 this season. The Mariners will counter with one of their best starters, righty Logan Gilbert, who has led them to two wins in six starts in the 206 season.

Gilbert has pitched pretty well (4.36 ERA, 3.01 FIP), but Seattle’s offense (18th in runs scored) has scored just 16 total runs in his outings this season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Tuesday’s AL battle.

Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mariners -1.5 (+139)
Twins +1.5 (-168)

Moneyline

Mariners: -122
Twins: +102

Total

7.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mariners vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Seattle: Logan Gilbert (1-3, 4.36 ERA)
Minnesota: Joe Ryan (2-2, 3.90 ERA)

Mariners vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, April 28
Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): Mariners.TV/Twins.TV/KMSP-TV/Gray Media
Mariners record: 14-16
Twins record: 13-16

Mariners vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Best column why Gilbert is a great prop target against Minnesota:

Gilbert has struck out 35 batters in 33.0 innings to start the 2026 season, and he may be undervalued in this prop against the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins are averaging 8.83 strikeouts per game (20th in MLB), and Gilbert’s underlying numbers suggest that he should have a few more K’s than he actually has in 2026.

The righty ranks in the 80th percentile in whiff percentage and the 53rd percentile in chase rate, yet he’s striking out just under six batters per game. Despite that. Gilbert is still in the 69th percentile in strikeout percentage and has six or more punchouts in four of his six starts.

He’s a prime bounce-back candidate after he had just three K’s in four innings in his last start against the A’s.

Mariners vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Both Gilbert and Ryan have pitched pretty well this season, despite their actual numbers looking pedestrian.

Gilbert has an expected ERA of 3.75, and he ranks in the 91st percentile in walk percentage. However, the Mariners righty is in just the 29th percentile in expected batting average against, as he’s already allowed 35 hits in 33.0 innings of work.

Ryan has been even better, posting an expected ERA of 3.00 while ranking in the 80th percentile in expected batting average against. Even though the Twins have lost four of Ryan’s six starts, he’s given up five unearned runs already in 2026, while posting four starts with two or fewer runs allowed.

The Mariners were blown out in Game 1 of this series, and I actually think the Twins (8-6 at home this season) may be a little undervalued as underdogs.

Still, Seattle has a much better bullpen this season, so I’m going to take the Twins on the run line to get a little extra cushion on Tuesday.

The Mariners are one of the worst teams in MLB on the run line this season, going 10-20 through their first 30 games.

Pick: Twins +1.5 (-168 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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