Marlins vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 2

The Miami Marlins are just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot in the National League, and they may end up looking to improve their roster ahead of Monday’s deadline, especially since the three teams ahead of them (Philadelphia, Arizona and San Diego) all have their own flaws and are passable in the standings.

Sunday’s series finale with the New York Mets could go a long way in determining Miami’s deadline fate, as it has a chance to take three out of four after winning on Friday and Saturday. Oddsmakers have set the Marlins as slight favorites on the road in this matchup, as New York (18 games under .500) is well out of the playoff race in the NL.

Sandy Alcantara (3.82 ERA) is on the mound for the Marlins for the 24th time this season, and he’s been terrific since June, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in 11 starts.

He’ll take on Mets righty Robert Stock, who is set to make his first appearance of the 2026 season after posting a 2.91 ERA in eight minor league outings across A+ and AAA ball.

Let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Sunday’s NL East showdown.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Marlins -1.5 (+139)
Mets +1.5 (-168)

Moneyline

Marlins: -123
Mets: +102

Total

8.5 (Over -122/Under +101)

Marlins vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Miami: Sandy Alcantara (11-6, 3.82 ERA)
New York: Robert Stock (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Marlins vs. Mets How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Aug. 2
Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Citi Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Marlins.TV, WFSB-TV Miami
Marlins record: 57-55
Mets record: 47-65

Marlins vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks column – Daily Dinger – why Lindor may be undervalued against Alcantara:

Lindor enters Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins with nine home runs in 55 games (54 starts). He’s hitting just .238 this season, but the switch-hitting shortstop has gotten in a groove since the break.

Over his last 13 games, Lindor is hitting .347 with four home runs and a 1.122 OPS. He’s homered three times in the last week of action, slugging .741 with a 1.160 OPS during that stretch.

Now, Lindor takes on Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara (3.82 ERA), who has allowed 17 home runs in 23 outings in 2026. Alcantara gave up five homers in as many starts in July, and he has struggled a bit against Lindor in his career.

The Mets star is 10-for-33 (.303 batting average) with a pair of homers and a .914 OPS against Alcantara in his career. Plus, Lindor has hit six of his nine long balls in 2026 against right-handed pitching.

At +450, I think Lindor is a terrific value as he looks to stay hot after the break.

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Since June 1, Alcantara has found his elite form once again, posting a 2.99 ERA across 11 starts while leading the Marlins to an 8-3 record during that stretch.

Miami has a chance to take three out of four in this series with a win on Sunday, and it remains in the mix for a playoff spot in the National League despite a lengthy losing streak last month.

The Mets are relying on Stock to start this game – his first outing in 2026 – and he has a career 4.90 ERA in 57 appearances (three starts). That means New York will likely rely on its bullpen (3.82 ERA) a lot of Sunday.

While the Mets actually haven’t been that bad out of the ‘pen, they are by far the lesser team in this game, sitting at 18 games under .500 with a minus-56 run differential. New York is just 27th in MLB Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season, and it has very little chance of improving on that with Juan Soto (calf) on the injured list.

The Marlins are five games over .500 when Alcantara starts this season, and I think they’re a solid bet to win a third game in a row given the unknown on the mound for the Mets.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-123 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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