Mercury vs. Storm Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

Can the Phoenix Mercury finally turn their season around on Wednesday night?

After making the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season, Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and company are off to a 2-8 start in the 2026 campaign and have lost six games in a row heading into a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup battle with the Seattle Storm.

Seattle (3-7) isn’t much better, and it’s been without 2025 No. 2 overall pick Dominique Malonga (concussion protocol) for a lot of the 2026 season. Malonga is listed as out for Wednesday’s contest.

Both of these teams dropped their Commissioner’s Cup openers on Monday night by double digits, and the Mercury have lost eight of nine games after blowing out the Las Vegas Aces in their season opener.

Meanwhile, the Storm are searching for answers on offense after they scored 56 points in Monday’s loss to Dallas.

Oddsmakers have the Mercury set as road favorites in this game, but can bettors trust them to snap this losing streak and cover?

No matter if you want to bet on this game or simply want a prediction, the SI Betting team has you covered. Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop pick and my prediction for this Commissioner’s Cup showdown on Wednesday night.

Mercury vs. Storm Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury -5.5 (-105)
Storm +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Mercury: -205
Storm: +170

Total

162.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Storm How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, June 3
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Climate Pledge Arena
How to Watch (TV): USA Network
Mercury record: 2-8
Storm record: 3-7

Mercury vs. Storm Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out

Storm Injury Report

Taylor Thierry -- out
Dominique Malonga -- out
Taina Mair -- out
Ezi Magbegor -- out

Mercury vs. Storm Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Alyssa Thomas UNDER 15.5 Rebounds and Assists (+102)

Thomas is known for stuffing the stat sheet during her WNBA career, but the star forward is averaging just 6.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game so far in the 2026 campaign.

The six-time All-Star has 11 and eight rebounds and assists in her last two games, and she’s only cleared this line in four games so far in 2026.

Seattle is No. 1 in the WNBA in opponent assists per game, so this is a tough matchup for Thomas, especially since she’s averaging less rebounds than assists this season, grabbing just three boards in each of her last two games.

I’ll fade her at this +102 price on Wednesday.

Mercury vs. Storm Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the UNDER is the play in this matchup:

These teams are two of the worst offenses in the WNBA this season, ranking 14th (Seattle) and 11th (Phoenix) in offensive rating.

Seattle scored just 56 points in Monday’s loss to Dallas, and it is averaging just over 76 points per game through 10 games.

Neither of these teams loves to push the pace (10th and ninth this season), and the Storm actually have a top-five defensive rating and rank fifth in opponent points per game. The UNDER has hit in seven of Seattle’s 10 games as a result.

I can’t trust Phoenix to cover as a favorite right now, and the offense for the Mercury has ground to a halt recently. They’ve scored 77, 68, 74 and 80 points in their last four games and only have three games all season where they reached 90 points.

Rather than bet on a side between two slumping teams, bettors should expect a low-scoring affair on Wednesday night.

Pick: UNDER 162.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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