Mets vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 1

Revenge is in the air on Tuesday night in Tampa Bay, as the New York Mets look to take a second straight game from the Tampa Bay Rays, and former Met Freddy Peralta is on the mound.

Peralta was traded from New York to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, and he posted a 5.60 ERA in five August starts with his new team. Overall, Peralta has a 5.11 ERA this season despite the fact that his expected ERA is all the way down at 3.97.

He’ll take on New York lefty Sean Manaea (4.55 ERA), who opened the season in the bullpen before returning to the rotation a couple of months ago. In 14 starts this season, Manaea has a 4.29 ERA, leading the Mets to a 6-8 record in those games.

New York is out of the playoff mix in the National League, but it can play spoiler to a Rays team that is trying to hold off the New York Yankees in the AL East. Both teams lost on Monday night, so Tampa Bay remains 4.5 games up as the calendar flips to September.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague showdown on Tuesday night.

Mets vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mets +1.5 (-194)
Rays -1.5 (+159)

Moneyline

Mets: +116
Rays: -124

Total

8 (Over -106/Under -114)

Mets vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

New York: Sean Manaea (4-6, 4.55 ERA)
Tampa Bay: Freddy Peralta (6-11, 5.11 ERA)

Mets vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Sept. 1
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Rays.TV
Mets record: 62-76
Rays record: 82-55

Mets vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+344)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Soto is a solid prop target against Peralta:

Soto has already homered once since coming off the injured list, and he’s gone deep 22 times in 87 games in the 2026 campaign. The star outfielder has done a lot of his damage against right-handed pitching, hitting .289 with a 1.029 OPS and 18 homers.

Now, he takes on the struggling Peralta, who has given up 22 home runs in 27 appearances this season while posting a 5.11 ERA. Soto only has one hit against Peralta in his career, but it happens to be a home run.

One of the best hitters in MLB when he’s healthy, Soto has a .948 OPS this season and is homering around once every four games. Even against a Rays team that is bound for the playoffs, I think the Mets slugger could have a big game on Tuesday night.

Mets vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Tampa Bay may have lost the series opener on Monday, but this Rays team is still 22 games over .500 at home in 2026.

Peralta has been shaky in his five starts in Tampa, allowing five or more runs twice, yet the Rays have still found a way to win three of those games. Peralta’s advanced numbers (3.97 xERA, 74th percentile in average exit velocity against) aren’t as bad as his actual ERA suggests.

Plus, he’s taking on a New York team that is just 26th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this season. Peralta spun six innings of no-run, two-hit ball in a win over the Detroit Tigers his last time out, and I think he and the Rays are a little undervalued at this price.

Manaea hasn’t pitched terribly since joining the rotation, but the Rays (fifth in the league in wRC+) have been solid against left-handed pitching this season, posting the 10th-best batting average in baseball.

Ultimately, I’m going to trust Tampa Bay’s body of work at home (46-24) as it looks to even this series.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-124 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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