Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs, Red Sox vs. Angels, Eury Perez)

All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are in action on Sunday, as we’re just eight days away from the All-Star break.

There are a bunch of exciting wild card and division races shaping up across the league, including one in the NL Central where the second-place Chicago Cubs are a half game ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals and in danger of getting swept in the series finale between the two squads on Sunday afternoon.

That game is one of three that I’m eyeing to close out this holiday weekend. There are so many bets to consider across a huge MLB slate, but I’ve narrowed things down to one player prop, one side and one total.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind these picks for Sunday, July 5.

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

St. Louis Cardinals-Chicago Cubs OVER 8 (-107)
Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-163) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Eury Perez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

St. Louis Cardinals-Chicago Cubs OVER 8 (-107)

The Cardinals are actually the best UNDER team in MLB this season, hitting it in 55.6 percent of their games, but I think the OVER is the play with this pitching matchup on Sunday.

Matthew Liberatore gets the ball for the Cards in this series finale, and he enters this start with a 5.33 ERA after allowing four or more runs in four of his five starts in June. The young lefty ranks in the ninth percentile in expected ERA (5.55) and the eight percentile in expected batting average against this season. He’s allowed four or more runs in nine of his 17 starts, though he did keep the Cubs in check in late May, allowing no runs across 5.1 innings of work.

On the Chicago side, Javier Assad (4.53 ERA) will make his seventh start of the season (14th appearance) on Sunday afternoon. Assad ranks in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA and the 13th percentile in expected BAA, making him an easy fade candidate as well. In his six starts, he’s allowed 15 runs.

St. Louis had a huge showing to open this series with 17 runs, and the Cubs (No. 2 in Weighted Runs Created Plus) have been one of the better offenses in MLB all season. Chicago is fourth in MLB in runs scored and fifth in OPS, leading to it hitting the OVER in 54.6 percent of its games.

I think eight is a little too low for this total, especially since St. Louis is a better than average offense, ranking 13th in wRC+ in 2026.

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-163) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Boston has a chance to sweep the struggling Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, and lefty Ranger Suarez is the perfect man to have on the mound for the Red Sox.

Suarez has led Boston to an 8-8 record in 16 starts this season, posting a 2.94 ERA and an expected ERA in the 77th percentile. The veteran left-hander has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 16 outings this season, and now he’s taking on a struggling Angels team that has lost five in a row to fall to last in the AL West.

Boston has been a better road team (22-21) than home team (17-27) in the 2026 campaign, and it should be able to beat Angels starter Ryan Johnson. This season, the 23-year-old has appeared in seven games (four starts) and posted a 7.40 ERA. Los Angeles is just 1-6 when he takes the mound, and Johnson has given up at least three runs in five of his seven outings.

The Red Sox have been playing better over the last 10 days, winning seven of those games to improve their run differential to plus-three this season. I think they’re worth a look to win this game outright on Sunday night.

Eury Perez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Miami Marlins right-hander Eury Perez has a 4.21 ERA in the 2026 season, but he’s done a really solid job registering strikeouts.

Perez ranks in the 77th percentile in whiff percentage and the 77th percentile in strikeout percentage this season, punching out 81 batters in 72.2 innings of work.

Now, he takes on an Athletics squad that averages 8.66 K’s per game this season, which is easily in the bottom half of the league.

Perez has six or more K’s in nine of his 14 starts, including an eight-strikeout performance in 5.1 innings against Colorado his last time out. I’m buying Perez at this number on Sunday against an offense that strikes out on over 22 percent of its plate appearances this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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