Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Paul Skenes, Red Sox vs. Blue Jays, Royals vs. Dodgers)

Tuesday’s Major League Baseball action features a full 15-game slate, and there are a ton of teams battling for playoff positioning in both leagues with less than two months to go in the regular season.

So, how should we bet on Tuesday’s action?

I’ve narrowed things down to three games, but the SI Betting team has also shared our best home run prop bet picks and SI’s Iain MacMillan is targeting four MLB games in his daily series where he bets $100 every day for an entire year.

When it comes to this edition of Walk-Off Wagers, I’m looking at one player prop, a total and a side for this loaded day of baseball. My prop play is for one of the best pitchers in MLB – Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes – who has not been nearly as effective over the last month.

Will he turn things around tonight?

I have a breakdown of that pick and much more for Aug. 11.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Paul Skenes UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Boston Red Sox-Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-180)
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (+101) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Paul Skenes UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)

Skenes has a 3.96 ERA and a 2.91 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, which is a bit of a step back from his Cy Young year in 2025.

The Pirates right-hander still ranks in the 89th percentile in expected ERA and the 85th percentile in expected batting average against, but he’s struggled with his control a bit as of late. Skenes has walked 16 batters in just over 36 innings since July 1, posting a 6.14 ERA in seven starts.

The three-time All-Star only has two starts where he completed six innings, which is what he’ll need to do on Tuesday to clear this prop. Skenes has thrown a ton of pitches during this seven-game stretch, posting three games with 100-plus pitches and five with 93 or more. Yet, he’s struggled to work deep into the game.

Miami is a pretty average offense (14th in Weighted Runs Created Plus), but Skenes has fallen short of this prop in 14 of his 24 outings overall this season.

I expect that trend to continue with the Pirates star looking mortal since the All-Star break.

Boston Red Sox-Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-180)

An interesting pitching matchup is set for Tuesday night in Toronto, as Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease (2.28 ERA) takes the mound for the Jays against Boston’s Patrick Sandoval.

This is just the sixth time in 2026 that Sandoval will take the mound, but he’s led the Sox to a 5-0 record while putting together a 3.38 ERA. Sandoval has given up two or fewer runs in four of those outings.

Meanwhile, Cease has a 0.84 ERA since July 1, including seven innings of scoreless ball against a tough Chicago Cubs team his last time out.

Boston has been red hot and is now in the mix for the top wild card spot in the American League, but I’d expect a low-scoring game in the early innings on Tuesday.

Toronto’s offense has been shaky all season long, ranking 29th in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), so I wouldn’t be shocked if this is a pitcher’s duel until the bullpens get involved.

Kansas City Royals +1.5 (+101) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers picked up a 6-5 win over the Kansas City Royals in their series opener on Monday night, but they’re just 2-8 in their last 10 games and have a terrible record on the run line when favored at home.

L.A. failed to cover the run line on Monday, slipping to 17-37 on the run line in 54 home games as a favorite. The Royals haven’t been great as road underdogs, but they’re still 22-19 on the run line despite being 22 games under .500 for the entire 2026 season.

On Tuesday, the Dodgers will have Blake Snell on the mound for just the second time this season, and it’s possible he won’t work very deep into this matchup. The Dodgers’ bullpen (4.01 ERA) has been pretty average, so the Royals may be able to hang around on Tuesday.

Oddsmakers have set Kansas City at plus money to cover, and I think that’s too valuable of a price with the Dodgers in a little slump.

Michael Wacha (3.44 ERA) has been solid for the Royals, and he’s given up one or fewer earned runs in five of his last eight starts.

The Dodgers will likely win this game, but their inability to cover makes them an easy fade candidate when we’re getting plus money on the opponent’s run line.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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