Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Red Sox-Blue Jays, Yankees-Rangers, Rays-Guardians)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action only features eight games, but that’s not going to stop us from betting on the action here at SI Betting.

In fact, today’s MLB Best Bets are pretty simple:

I’m taking three teams (two at home, one on the road) to win outright while backing two starting pitchers in the AL East that have early bids to make the All-Star team.

Here’s a breakdown of each game, the latest odds and my predictions for Monday night.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 27

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-136) vs. Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees Moneyline (-168) vs. Texas Rangers
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-136) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-136) vs. Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox fired Alex Cora and several members of their coaching staff on Saturday, a sign that their awful start to the season has a lot more issues internally.

Boston has won back-to-back games, but it is a road underdog against Dylan Cease and the Toronto Blue Jays in Monday’s series opener.

The Jays are under .500 and have a minus-23 run differential this season, but they have won three of Cease’s five starts. The veteran right-hander has been magnificent in 2026, posting a 2.10 ERA, 1.45 FIP and an expected ERA of 2.69.

Boston is 23rd in MLB in runs scored and 27th in OPS, and it should struggle with how well Cease has pitched in the 2026 season.

Toronto’s offense hasn’t been any better (18th in OPS, 27th in runs scored), but Boston’s starter – Ranger Suarez – is off to a slow start in his Sox tenure. Suarez ranks in the 28th percentile in expected ERA and the 15th percentile in expected batting average against, posting a 4.00 ERA.

He’s allowed at least four runs in three of his five outings in the 2026 season.

I’m going to trust Cease to lead the Jays to a win for the fourth time in his six outings.

New York Yankees Moneyline (-168) vs. Texas Rangers

Max Fried and the New York Yankees had a winning streak snapped on Sunday against the Houston Astros, but they’re heavily favored in their series opener with the Texas Rangers.

Fried (2.40 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in MLB this season, and I’m buying him to lead the Yankees to a win against former first-round pick Jack Leiter.

Fried ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA and the 87th percentile in expected batting average against, allowing three or fewer runs in five of his six starts. He’s given up just 22 hits and 10 walks in over 41 innings of work.

Meanwhile, Leiter ranks in the 25th percentile in expected ERA (5.05), the 11th percentile in barrel percentage and the 21st percentile in hard-hit percentage. He has an actual ERA of 4.97 and has allowed 12 runs over his last three outings.

The Yankees are actually off to a great start on the road (10-5 this season), and they rank sixth in runs scored and fifth in OPS on offense. Texas is 25th and 20th in those respective categories. With Fried on the mound, New York should roll on Monday night.

Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-136) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays lefty Steven Matz had led his team to a 4-0 record to start the season, but he was rocked in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing four hits, four runs, three homers and four walks in just three innings of work.

Matz’s advanced numbers are extremely shaky this season, as he ranks in the 25th percentile in expected ERA (5.05), the 29th percentile in expected batting average against (.265), the 12th percentile in barrel percentage and the fifth percentile in ground-ball percentage.

On top of that, Matz has multiple outings where he’s allowed at least four runs, pushing his ERA to 4.81 this season.

Now, he takes on Cleveland lefty Parker Messick, who enters this start with a 1.76 ERA. The Guardians are 5-0 with Messick on the mound, and he has some impressive advanced numbers in 2026, ranking in the:

75th percentile in expected ERA (3.18)
95th percentile in chase percentage
91st percentile in barrel percentage
91st percentile in hard-hit percentage
81st percentile in average exit velocity against

So, Messick is inducing a lot of weak contact, and he's given up just 19 hits and eight walks in 30.2 innings of work. I’m buying Cleveland – which is 8-5 at home this season – to get a win on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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