Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 3

A major NL East matchup kicks off Monday’s MLB action, as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals.

Both of these teams are in the mix for a wild card spot (Philly is tied with Arizona for the No. 2 spot), but the Nationals have certainly fallen back in that race after losing five games in a row.

They find themselves as underdogs once again on Monday, as Trevor Williams is set to make his third appearance of the season after returning from an elbow injury. The veteran right-hander has allowed just three hits and a walk in four innings of work (both in relief) in 2026.

The Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola (5.61 ERA), who has been unable to find his All-Star form in 2026. Philadelphia also could have a much different roster by first pitch, as it already made a trade deadline move on Monday morning, adding three-time batting champion Luis Arraez in a deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Oddsmakers have the Phillies at eighth in the odds to win the World Series in 2026, but they have to secure a playoff spot first.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as these two division rivals begin their four-game set on Monday.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +1.5 (-156)
Phillies -1.5 (+129)

Moneyline

Nationals: +135
Phillies: -163

Total

9 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nationals vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

Washington: Trevor Williams (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (3-9, 5.61 ERA)

Nationals vs. Phillies How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 3
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Nationals.TV
Nationals record: 55-58
Phillies record: 59-53

Nationals vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Nationals Best MLB Prop Bet

CJ Abrams to Hit a Home Run (+319)

In today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run bets at SI Betting – I shared why I think Abrams will stay hot against the struggling Nola:

Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams could be on the move at the trade deadline, but if he plays on Monday, he’s a great home run bet against Philly’s Aaron Nola.

This season, Nola has given up 26 home runs in 22 starts, posting a 5.61 ERA in the process. He’s given up seven home runs over his last four outings, and Abrams has been solid against Nola in his career, going 6-for-24 with a homer.

The Nationals star is hitting .287 with 28 home runs in 2026, including 23 homers against right-handed pitching. Abrams has a .301 batting average and a .992 OPS against righties, showing much more power than he does against southpaws.

On top of that, Abrams is hitting .360 with seven home runs over the last two weeks (13 games). He’s one of the hottest hitters in MLB right now and should at least produce a hit against the struggling Nola.

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

The Phillies have lost six consecutive starts by Nola, and their last win with him on the mound ironically was a 5-4 victory over the Nationals back on June 24. Nola lasted five innings in that start, allowing three hits, two runs and two walks and did not factor into the decision.

So, I have a hard time trusting him as a -163 favorite, even with the Nationals on a losing streak.

Washington is still in the mix for a wild card spot, and it has a better run differential (plus-16) than the Phillies (minus-4) in 2026. Now, there is some concern with the Nats likely using their bullpen (4.94 ERA) a ton in this matchup, but the Phillies are just 26th in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), 23rd in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 16th in runs scored in 2026.

So, will they even take advantage of this Washington staff?

I’m going to take the Nats to cover the run line in this matchup, as they could be live for an upset in this game. Washington has the second-best run line record in MLB (66-47), covering over 58 percent of the time.

On the flip side, the Phillies have the second-worst run line record in the league (44-68), covering in just 39.3 percent of their games.

Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-156 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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