Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Hornets-Magic, Warriors-Suns)

The No. 8 seed in each conference is on the line on Friday night, as the play-in tournament wraps up before four Game 1 matchups on Saturday.

Both games are expected to be close, as the Charlotte Hornets are 3.5-point road favorites against the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference play-in matchup while the Phoenix Suns are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Golden State Warriors in the West.

Steph Curry and the Warriors are attempting to make the playoffs out of the No. 10 spot, something that the Miami Heat accomplished last season for the first time in play-in history.

Meanwhile, the Hornets are riding high after an overtime win against Miami in the No. 10 vs. No. 9 game, and oddsmakers expect them to take down a disjointed Orlando team on Friday.

After hitting three of four picks in Peter’s Points on Wednesday night, I’m looking to keep the momentum going in Friday’s play-in games.

Here’s a breakdown of four plays with two playoff spots on the line.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 250-208 (+1.83 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1541-1448-27 (+34.98 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Miles Bridges 6+ Rebounds (-163)
Steph Curry 4+ 3-Pointers Made (-171)
Charlotte Hornets Moneyline (-175) vs. Orlando Magic
Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-118) vs. Phoenix Suns

Miles Bridges 6+ Rebounds (-163)

Charlotte Hornets wing Miles Bridges was arguably the team’s best player in the win over Miami, dropping 28 points and grabbing nine rebounds in over 40 minutes of action.

Bridges came up big with the Hornets having to go small at times with Grant Williams as their center. If that ends up being the case on Friday against the Hornets, I think Bridges is worth a look to grab six or more boards.

One of the few veterans on this Charlotte roster, Bridges has played in a couple of play-in matchups in his career, and he averaged 5.8 rebounds per game during the regular season. Orlando ranked just 13th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, and Bridges has six or more boards in five of his last six games.

Steph Curry 4+ 3-Pointers Made (-171)

It was always Steph Curry in a win-or-go-home game on Wednesday, and I’m going right back to the well with this prop on Friday night.

Curry appears to be back to his usual workload, playing over 35 minutes in the win over the Clippers, and he knocked down 7-of-12 shots from beyond the arc.

While the two-time league MVP has only appeared in three of the meetings with the Suns during the regular season, he did clear this line twice. Phoenix has a solid 3-point defense – fourth in the league in opponent 3s made per game – but Curry is not matchup dependent when it comes to his shooting.

The star guard has made four or more 3s in four of five games since returning to the lineup, and he finished the regular season averaging 4.4 3-pointers per game while shooting 39.3 percent from deep.

I’m going to take him to make four or more 3-pointers as the main bet in this column, but can I interest anyone in a 3-point ladder?

Curry is +121 to make five or more 3s, +239 to make six or more 3s and +459 to reach seven 3s like he did against L.A.

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline (-175) vs. Orlando Magic

Before the play-in tournament, I staked my claim that the Magic would not make it out of the play-in tournament, and I stand by that.

The Hornets posted the second-best net rating in the NBA since the All-Star break while the Magic were just No. 15 during that stretch.

Charlotte’s offense finished as the No. 5 unit in the league, and it completely outclassed Orlando in the late March matchup between the teams. While Franz Wagner and Anthony Black have returned for Orlando, that wasn’t enough to beat a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia team in the first play-in game.

The Hornets didn’t have their best shooting game against Miami, but they still found a way to come out with a win. Players like Kon Knueppel and Ball struggled shooting the 3, but I’d expect some positive regression in that department for a Hornets team that is 12th in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (Orlando is 25th).

Charlotte won, but failed to cover in the first play-in game, and with this spread set at 3.5 points, I’m not going to play around and expect a two-possession game. I’ll take the Hornets to win outright and advance to the playoffs on Friday night.

Golden State Warriors +3.5 (-118) vs. Phoenix Suns

The Golden State Warriors have been bad on the road all season.

The Golden State Warriors have been awful against teams over .500.

The Golden State Warriors have a shell of their team due to injury.

And yet, I’m taking them on Friday night against the Phoenix Suns.

Steph Curry and Draymond Green have played in too many big games to fade in this spot, and Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are looking to be real weapons for this Warriors team at this point in the season. The Suns don’t have nearly as much playoff experience after Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, and Phoenix’s lack of depth should help the Warriors hang around in this matchup.

The Suns are a far better defensive team, but they were under .500 against the spread when favored at home this season. Curry is the best player in this game, and he already took over Wednesday’s play-in matchup to keep Golden State’s season alive.

There are a lot of numbers that don’t back up the Warriors in this game, but their season-long statistics are skewed a lot by Curry missing 39 games. When the star guard plays, the Warriors are 25-19 (counting the play-in tournament). That makes them an interesting underdog bet against a Suns team that has overachieved all season long.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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