NFL Playoff Odds: Texans Tabbed By Oddsmakers as 0-2 Team With Best Chance to Make Postseason

Early in the NFL season, there are plenty of results to overreact to, though oddsmakers aren’t always looking to move off their preseason positions after just one week.

Some teams will fall in the power ratings that each book gives out, but even the Los Angeles Chargers remained 6.5-point favorites in Week 2 after a shocking upset loss to Arizona in Week 1.

Now, through two weeks, we’re starting to see the playoff market take shape, and a few 0-2 teams that were originally favored to make the postseason may get left behind.

The Chargers, Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all opened the season as favorites to make the playoffs, yet only one remains in that spot ahead of Week 3.

Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers about all three of these squads, and it’s pretty clear that Houston has the best chance of the three to dig out of an 0-2 hole.

“Houston is still a favorite, and a small favorite, to make the playoffs,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “And their rating really has moved minimally. When you look at their games, they were a bit unlucky in Week 1 versus Buffalo; they could have captured that win. Then a lot of gaffes in Week 2 versus Cincy. And then to add to their misfortune, they were missing [Nico] Collins. So, I think Houston has the better shot out of the teams to make the playoffs.”

Houston Texans’ Odds to Make the Playoffs

Make: -114
Miss: -106

The Texans are -114 to make the playoffs this season, putting them as slight favorites ahead of an AFC South showdown with the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. The bright side for Houston? The rest of the division has gone 1-5 through three weeks, with the Jacksonville Jaguars being the only team to earn a win.

So, there’s a real chance that the Texans can still win this division. They ended up making the playoffs last year after an 0-3 start, but they’re favored to avoid that same fate on Sunday.

“Despite back-to-back losses to legitimate AFC contenders, the Houston Texans still have the strongest playoff outlook according to our odds, currently sitting at -125 to make the postseason,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “I still expect this Texans team to make a run, thanks to a talented defense and a more favorable schedule against softer divisional competition the rest of the way.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Odds to Make the Playoffs

Make: +250
Miss: -320

Tampa Bay has fallen in the odds to win the NFC South after entering the season as the favorite, and a loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 shifted the sentiment around Baker Mayfield and Co. for some oddsmakers.

“And the Bucs, with that loss to Cleveland, we're really treating that carefully,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “The NFC South is still pretty wide open, but that was a really tough loss and dropped their ratings.”

Christian Cipollini, a Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, isn’t closing the door on the Bucs’ chances to make the playoffs, but he does view Houston as the more likely team out of this group of 0-2 squads to get in.

“The Buccaneers have the weak division as well but it's going to be a tough road to get back ahead of this,” he said. “The Texans have the best chance at making the playoffs.”

Tampa Bay has struggled mightily on offense through two weeks, ranking 28th in EPA/Play. Still, no team in the NFC South is 2-0, which does give the Bucs a chance to make up some ground in the coming weeks.

Los Angeles Chargers’ Odds to Make the Playoffs

Make: +280
Miss: -360

As expected, the Chargers are the biggest long shot of this group to make the playoffs after losing back-to-back games at home as favorites against Arizona and Las Vegas.

L.A. has moved in the ratings for every book that we spoke to, and now L.A. is a seven-point underdog on the road against Buffalo in Week 3.

“The Chargers have been the largest move in the ratings from the preseason to where we're currently at,” Avello said. “I mean, they've looked awful.”

After Arizona ended up losing badly to Drew Lock and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, it turned the sentiment on the Chargers even more since the loss to the Cardinals was not a case of Arizona being a much better team than expected this season.

“Probably one of the biggest stories in the NFL this week is just how poor their two losses were at home,” Gour said. “And especially seeing what an injured Seattle could do to Arizona as well, that really did seem like more of an aberration than it was.”

The Chargers have a really tough stretch ahead, as they’ll play Buffalo, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Rams, Houston and Baltimore over the next seven games. There’s a chance the Chargers end up as underdogs in all of them.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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