NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 4 (Bet Falcons to Win NFC South Duel on Monday Night Football)

The Falcons are underdogs against the Saints on Monday Night Football. | Sports Illustrated

Week 3 was a rough outing for SI's upset picks. Iain MacMillan and Mitch Goldich came close, but a baffling end-zone interception by Cam Ward kept the Tennessee Titans from upsetting the New York Giants.

A last-minute turnover also kept Gilberto Manzano from having a chance at the New York Jets upsetting the Detroit Lions. Peter Dewey's pick of the Patriots beating the Jaguars wasn't quite as close as the others.

Let's move on to Week 4 and see if we can hit an upset winner.

• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor, Betting
• Peter Dewey, Associate Managing Editor, Betting

All odds listed are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Gilberto Manzano Week 4 Upset Pick

Washington Commanders (+160) vs. Indianapolis Colts

New Commanders offensive coordinator David Blough might have found something in how to keep the unit humming without Jayden Daniels. Last year, the Commanders had no answers for how to produce points when Daniels went down because they were too reliant on the star quarterback. But Blough found beneficial matchups for wide receiver Terry McLaurin and made life easier for backup Marcus Mariota in the 33–31 upset victory against the Seahawks last week. I don’t think that performance was a fluke. Look for Blough to build off the Week 3 game, and there’s still a chance Daniels plays against the Colts in London.

Peter Dewey Week 4 Upset Pick

Atlanta Falcons (+124) vs. New Orleans Saints

There are a ton of intriguing upset spots in Week 4, but my favorite is on Monday Night with the Atlanta Falcons taking on the New Orleans Saints in an NFC South battle.

The Falcons’ 0-2 start scared a lot of people away (and rightfully so), but the offense looked competent on Thursday night in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Now, Atlanta takes on a New Orleans team that is 26th in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball in 2026.

The Saints’ upset win over Baltimore vaulted them to the top of the NFC South odds, but they then allowed 35 points in a home loss to Las Vegas.

The Atlanta defense has quietly been one of the best units in the league, ranking in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, success rate, and EPA/Play. If Penix can just get the ball to Bijan Robinson and Drake London as he did in Week 3, I think the Falcons may be the better team in this matchup. I’ll take them at this price since no NFC South team is worth betting on as a favorite through three weeks.

Iain MacMillan Week 4 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+145) vs. Chicago Bears

Don't bet on Chicago just because Case Keenum looked good on Monday Night Football. These stories happen once a year, and while a backup quarterback can look amazing in his first start, he rarely sustains that level of play.

I have to give the Jets credit for how they've played to begin the season. They aren't a playoff team, but they rank average to above average in many areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams remain one of the league's best. If Keenum doesn't repeat his Week 3 performance, the Jets are going to be live to win this game.

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