NFL Week 3 Best Bets (Predictions for Patriots vs. Jaguars, Panthers vs. Browns on Sunday)

It's time to gear up for Week 3 of the NFL season, and there are some awesome matchups ahead on Sunday:

Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos (SNF)
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Those are just a few of the 14 games set for Sept. 27.

Now that two weeks are in the books, bettors, fans and oddsmakers are all starting to get a handle on how each of the 32 teams are going to stack up against each other this season. So, why don't we turn all the information from Weeks 1 and 2 into a couple of winners this Sunday?

All season long, the SI Betting team of Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey will share our NFL Best Bets for each week. The premise is simple:

We choose our favorite bet for Sunday or Monday, and our awesome readers get a chance to ride with us, or fade us. Plus, we'll keep track of our record here to see how we fare throughout the season.

After a poor start to the season in Week 1, we hit one of our two plays in Week 2, with MacMillan cashing a bet on the New England Patriots to cover at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In Week 3, it just so happens that one of our editors is going back to the well with Drake Maye and Co.

Plus, there is a pick we're making for the clash between the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers as both teams look to move to 2-1 in 2026.

There are 15 different games to choose from this week, so make sure to check out Iain's Road to 272 (where he bets on every game, every week) if you want a pick for games that aren't mentioned here.

Let's dive into the picks for NFL Week 3.

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Fanatics Sportsbook.

New England Patriots +3 (-115) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Peter Dewey
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns OVER 42 (-110) -- Iain MacMillan

New England Patriots +3 (-115) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Peter Dewey

Drake Maye and the New England Patriots have gotten off to a slow start offensively this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in EPA/Play.

The loss of A.J. Brown (ankle) is certainly tough to handle, but I still think there are some encouraging signs from the Patriots as a team through two weeks.

The Patriots' defense has been elite, ranking No. 2 in the league in EPA/Play and No. 4 in yards per play allowed, holding Pittsburgh to just three points in Week 2.

New England has allowed just 16 points across two games, and I think a small offensive step forward could even lead the Patriots to a win in this matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This line opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs, yet it moved in Jacksonville’s favor early in the week. As long as we can get a field goal with New England, I think that’s pretty favorable in what is a toss-up of a game.

Maye and the Patriots were one of the best teams in the league in EPA/Play on offense last season, so I’m not buying the first two weeks of 2026 as the new norm. I think the Patriots can at least finish as a middling offense in 2026, and the return of TreVeyon Henderson in Week 2 certainly boosted their run game.

Jacksonville looked great in Week 1 against Cleveland, but it wilted down the stretch in Week 2 against a much better Denver team. New England and Denver are in a similar class, and I think the Patriots can take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is allowing 6.1 yards per play (29th in the NFL) so far this season.

Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns OVER 42 (-110) -- Iain MacMillan

If you're like me, you're probably going to be surprised to find out that Deshaun Watson and Bryce Young have been effective quarterbacks this season. Not only that, but they both rank inside the top 10 in both adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage over expected.

With the total set at 42, the betting market assumes this is a game between two bad offenses and two good defenses, and while that would have been historically accurate, the numbers through the first two games show the complete opposite of that.

The offense has been better than the defense for both teams in this game. Let's bet the OVER and root for points.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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