Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Predictions for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4)

The Vegas Golden Knights are on the verge of pulling off the unlikely sweep of the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final. They're set as slight underdogs to complete the sweep on their home ice.

If you want to place a few bets for tonight's action, you're in the right place. I'm going to break down my best bet on the side and total for this game.

Best NHL Bets Today

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Avalanche/Golden Knights OVER 6 (-120)
Golden Knights -105

Avalanche/Golden Knights OVER 6 (-120)

In today's edition of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year, I wrote about why I'm betting the OVER for the fourth time in this series:

I think the best bet to place for this game is going to be the OVER. It's the bet I've placed for every game so far this season, and I think it continues to be the play to make. Both teams have played a wide-open style of hockey, despite the first two games being relatively low-scoring.

The two teams have combined for 6.92 expected goals per 60 minutes of play, which is well over the set total of 6 in this game. I think we're in a great spot to bet the OVER and hope for a high-scoring affair.

Golden Knights -105

The Golden Knights haven't just been winning games in this series due to variance or luck. Their underlying numbers have actually been far better than those of their opponents. They have an expected goal differential of +0.42 goals per 60 minutes. They've also been getting far better goaltending. Scott Wedgewood has struggled in this series, posting a sub-.900 save percentage in two of the first three games, including allowing four goals on just 22 shots in Game 3.

Despite all that, the Golden Knights are slight home underdogs to finish the series tonight. I won't hesitate to back a home underdog that has posted better numbers through the first three games of the conference final.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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