Nuggets' NBA Finals Odds Give Life to Potential Comeback After 3-1 Deficit

Only 13 teams in NBA history have come back from a 3-1 series deficit, but Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are as well-positioned as any to make it happen in the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

Denver rebounded from three straight losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves by taking Game 5 at home on Monday night. Now, the Nuggets are set as 6.5-point favorites on the road in Game 6 in the latest odds at DraftKings. So, Denver -- if it wins Game 6 -- will be favored the rest of this series with Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) out for Minnesota.

The loss of Edwards has completely changed the Timberwolves' odds to win the NBA Finals, as they've fallen to +25000 after losing Game 5. Edwards could return later on in the playoffs, but he's set to miss multiple weeks with a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee.

After Minnesota moved to a small favorite to win this series after Game 4, the odds have flipped back in favor of Denver. The Nuggets are -150 to advance to the second round (an implied probability of 66.67 percent) even though on 4.4 percent of teams have advanced after falling behind 3-1 in a series.

Denver's odds to win the NBA Finals have improved as well, moving up to +2000 (fifth-best in the NBA) after Monday's victory.

The Nuggets have struggled on offense for most of this series, failing to reach 100 points in Games 3 and 4, but the loss of Edwards may be too much for the Timberwolves to overcome. Minnesota is extremely thin at the guard position, and it doesn't have a go-to option on offense outside of Julius Randle.

Denver being favored by 6.5 points on the road in Game 6 is an ominous sign for the Wolves. Minnesota won outright in Games 3 and 4 as an underdog, but it took a 43-point game from Ayo Dosunmu in Game 4 to make that happen. Unless another role player has a huge game on Thursday, the Wolves are facing an uphill battle to avoid a winner-take-all Game 7 -- at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Jokic and the Nuggets have been in this spot before, as they came back from 3-1 deficits twice in the 2020 NBA Playoffs against Utah and the Los Angeles Clippers before losing to the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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