Packers vs. Buccaneers Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Does Green Bay Bounce Back vs. a Backup?)

A pair of teams in a must-win spot should make for an interesting Week 4 matchup, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers and Jordan Love on Sunday.

Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb) is set to miss this game for the Bucs, paving the way for undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels to make his first career start. This is a tough spot for Daniels to take over, as the Bucs are 0-3 and in danger of falling out of the playoff mix with Mayfield expected to miss multiple weeks.

As it is, the Bucs have the worst offenses in the NFL in terms of EPA/Play in 2026.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love and the Packers are coming off an extended rest after they lost badly in their home opener against the Atlanta Falcons. Green Bay’s offense has been shaky with Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, and the team is facing an uphill battle in the NFC North, which already features three teams with two or more wins.

Can the Pack take advantage of facing a backup in this matchup? Oddsmakers have them set as favorites for the second time in three road games this season.

All season long, the SI Betting is sharing final score predictions as a fun way to guide bettors towards their decision on their moneyline, spread and total bets. Plus, we may end up hitting an exact score along the way!

Both of these NFC teams have been disappointing in the 2026 season, and the Bucs have a backup quarterback under center. With that in mind, here’s a look at my score prediction for this matchup:

Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Packers -3.5 (-120)
Buccaneers +3.5 (+100)

Moneyline

Packers: -185
Buccaneers: +154

Total

39.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Green Bay opened up as a 1.5-point favorite in this matchup, but that line steamed all the way up to 3.5 with Baker Mayfield (thumb) set to miss this game. The total is also one of the lowest of the week, down at 39.5, as these teams are 32nd (Tampa Bay) and 25th (Green Bay) in EPA/Play on the offensive side of the ball.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Score Prediction

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game, every week in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Packers to cover:

The Packers are going to be in trouble any time they face a defense that can pressure the quarterback, due to their offensive line being horrible at protecting Jordan Love this season. Unfortunately, they have faced three solid pass rushes to begin the season. Now, they face a Buccaneers team that ranks 22nd in pressure rate and 28th in quarterback hurry rate. That's good news for Green Bay, which is coming into this game off a mini-BYE after playing on Thursday Night Football.

The Buccaneers are starting Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start. It's impossible to predict how it's going to go for the undrafted rookie, but I'm not ready to back him and the Buccaneers as just 3.5-point underdogs.

It's time for the Packers to bounce back and get both a win and a cover.

There’s no way I can bet on the Tampa Bay offense, which has the worst EPA/Play in the NFL and is now starting an undrafted rookie. In fact, I wrote about taking the UNDER in this matchup earlier in the week:

Daniels doesn’t have any real NFL tape to go off of, and the Bucs have struggled scoring the ball with Mayfield at the controls, putting up less than 20 points in back-to-back games.

The Packers haven’t been any better on offense, scoring 22, 20 and 14 points while ranking 28th in the league in EPA/Play.

Since the Tampa Bay defense (sixth in EPA/Play, eighth in yards per play allowed) has actually been solid in 2026, I think the UNDER is a great bet in this matchup.

I’ll stick to my guns, and I expect the Pack to bounce back in what may be a must-win game.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 23, Buccaneers 9

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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