Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 11

A major matchup in the National League wild card race takes place on Tuesday night, as Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates hit the road to play the Miami Marlins.

Miami is firmly in the mix for the final wild card spot in the NL, sitting 3.5 games out after back-to-back wins against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend.

Now, it opens a three-game set against Pittsburgh as an underdog at home. Eury Perez (3.61 ERA) is on the mound for Miami against Skenes, who has struggled a bit since the All-Star break, posting an ERA over 6.00 in his last seven starts.

Skenes is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the Pirates have faded in the playoff picture, dropping to six games out of a wild card spot.

Do they have a late season run in them?

A win over Miami would be a nice start, so let’s check out the odds, a player prop and my prediction for this NL battle on Tuesday night.

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Pirates -1.5 (+145)
Marlins +1.5 (-176)

Moneyline

Pirates: -112
Marlins: +104

Total

7 (Over -102/Under -118)

Pirates vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (9-10, 3.96 ERA)
Miami: Eury Perez (5-9, 3.61 ERA)

Pirates vs. Marlins How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: loanDepot park
How to Watch (TV): MLB.TV/Marlins.TV
Pirates record: 58-62
Marlins record: 60-59

Pirates vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Paul Skenes UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)

I’m fading Paul Skenes on Tuesday night, as he’s struggled to work deep into games over the last month. Here’s an excerpt from today’s MLB Best Bets column where I detailed this pick:

Skenes has a 3.96 ERA and a 2.91 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, which is a bit of a step back from his Cy Young year in 2025.

The Pirates right-hander still ranks in the 89th percentile in expected ERA and the 85th percentile in expected batting average against, but he’s struggled with his control a bit as of late. Skenes has walked 16 batters in just over 36 innings since July 1, posting a 6.14 ERA in seven starts.

The three-time All-Star only has two starts where he completed six innings, which is what he’ll need to do on Tuesday to clear this prop. Skenes has thrown a ton of pitches during this seven-game stretch, posting three games with 100-plus pitches and five with 93 or more. Yet, he’s struggled to work deep into the game.

Miami is a pretty average offense (14th in Weighted Runs Created Plus), but Skenes has fallen short of this prop in 14 of his 24 outings overall this season.

I expect that trend to continue with the Pirates star looking mortal since the All-Star break.

Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pittsburgh’s offense has been a major reason why it has hung around in the NL playoff race, but the Pirates have slipped to 24th in the league in OPS over their last 30 days. They still remain sixth in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) for the season, but it’s pretty clear Pittsburgh has taken a step back since mid-July.

The Marlins (14th in wRC+ this season) are just 20th in OPS during that same stretch, but they may have the more effective starter on the mound on Tuesday.

Perez has pitched great in eight outings since coming off the injured list, posting a 2.30 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 47.0 innings of work.

Usually the Pirates are a great bet to win with Skenes on the mound, but they’re actually well under .500 (9-15) in his starts in 2026.

The right-hander has a 6.14 ERA since July 1, and Pittsburgh is just 3-12 in his last 15 starts. I can’t get behind Skenes at this price, especially on the road.

Miami has been too good at home (36-24) to be an underdog on Tuesday night.

Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+104 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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