Predicting the MLB Home Run Leader: Aaron Judge vs. Kyle Schwarber vs. Shohei Ohtani

The 2026 MLB home run race is heating up early, with Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani emerging as the top contenders in a tightly priced prediction market battle.

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a foul ball during the fifth inning abasing Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. | Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Home runs are back in a big way—and the early returns in 2026 are already shaking up the market.

We’ve now seen two 60-homer seasons in the last four years after going from 2001 to 2021 without a single one, and this year’s leaderboard has some unexpected names at the top. Jordan Walker leads the way with eight home runs for the St. Louis Cardinals, while Brandon Lowe of the Pittsburgh Pirates sits at seven. A group of heavy hitters—including Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, CJ Abrams, Gunnar Henderson, and Yordan Alvarez—are right behind with six apiece.

But when it comes to pricing the market, early-season box scores only tell part of the story.

MLB Home Run Leader Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalsh

As of April 15, Kalshi has Judge installed as the favorite to lead the league in home runs at 34%. Schwarber has surged 13 percentage points to 28%, leapfrogging Shohei Ohtani, who still holds a strong position at 19%.

Here’s how the top of the board stacks up—and what the numbers say about each contender.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (34%)

Judge has essentially turned elite power into a baseline expectation. Over the past four years, he’s led the American League in runs (133, 137), home runs (62, 58), RBIs (131, 144), and walks (111, 133, 124), while even chipping in double-digit stolen bases each season. The only real hiccup came in 2023, when he missed 56 games.

Under the hood, the profile still screams dominance. His contact batting average has been elite the last two seasons (.464, .470), supported by a strong average hit rate (2.078). He did post his lowest RBI rate in six years (15.1%), largely because he came to the plate with 59 fewer runners on base (471) compared to 2024.

A key development: more balls in play. Judge cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 23.6%, while maintaining an elite walk rate (18.3%) over the past three seasons.

The power metrics remain absurd. Even with a slight dip, his 95.4 mph exit velocity is still elite. His 24.7% barrel rate and 58.2% hard-hit rate both rank among the best in the game, paired with a 19.1 launch angle and a 46.4% flyball rate. Add in a 29.4% HR/FB rate, and the formula hasn’t changed.

Before the All-Star break last year, Judge was on another level (.355/85/35/81/6 over 352 at-bats). Pitchers adjusted late, walking him 55 times versus 51 strikeouts over his final 189 at-bats. Notably, his production was nearly identical home (68/26/58) and away (69/27/56).

Through 17 games in 2026, Judge is hitting .234 with six home runs and 12 RBIs—right in line with expectations for a player the market still views as the safest bet on the board.

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (28%)

Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Schwarber’s rise in this market isn’t a fluke—it’s the continuation of a profile that’s quietly evolved into one of the most dangerous in baseball.

Two years removed from a .197 average, he followed up with a career year: 56 home runs and 132 RBIs. Volume played a role—he came to the plate with a career-high 460 runners on base—but so did tangible skill growth.

His average hit rate jumped to 2.235, and his RBI rate landed in a strong 16.5%–21.0% range. He continues to pair that with a 14.9% walk rate, though his 27.2% strikeout rate still leaves some volatility.

Where Schwarber really separated himself was in quality of contact. He posted career highs in exit velocity (94.3), barrel rate (20.8%), launch angle (20.1), and hard-hit rate (59.6%). That last number blew past his previous high of 54.9%. His flyball rate rebounded to 48.0%, and he’s maintained a career-long HR/FB floor of 24.0%, peaking at 28.6% last season.

One wrinkle: he actually hit better against lefties (.252/38/23/46/1 over 234 at-bats), while his road splits lagged (.216/45/23/53/6 over 252 at-bats). Still, his consistency showed up month-to-month, with at least nine home runs in four different months (9, 10, 12, 12).

In 2026, Schwarber is hitting .237 with six home runs and 12 RBIs over 17 games—and if the underlying metrics hold, the market’s recent move in his direction makes sense.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (19%)

Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani (17) gestures to right fielder Kyle Tucker (23) at first base after an RBI single in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Ohtani remains one of the most dynamic hitters in the sport, even coming off a slightly “down” year by his standards.

He saw dips in stolen bases (20), batting average (.282), and RBIs (102), but still delivered elite production across the board. Compared to 2024—when he posted a .310 average and dominated offensively—there was some regression, but the underlying skill set remains intact.

His average hit rate (2.209) is still elite, and his contact batting average has cleared .400 in three straight seasons (.427, .416, .406). Pitchers walked him 15.0% of the time, though his strikeout rate climbed to 25.7% (up from 22.2% in 2024).

The RBI drop had context. Ohtani came to the plate with 86 fewer runners on base, and his RBI rate dipped to 14.4% (down from 18.1%).

From a power standpoint, very little has changed. His 94.9 mph exit velocity, 23.4% barrel rate, and 58.4% hard-hit rate all sit near the top of the league. His launch angle has stabilized around 15–16 degrees, while his flyball rate climbed to a career-high 43.9%. Pair that with a 29.4% HR/FB rate, and the power ceiling is still massive.

He had a monster May last season (.309/31/15/27/2 over 110 at-bats), followed by strong finishes in August (.306) and September (.312), though his final 191 at-bats were quieter (46 runs, 17 HR, 29 RBIs, 7 SB). Notably, nine of his 20 steals came in April.

Through 17 games in 2026, Ohtani is hitting .254 with five home runs and 10 RBIs. He’s slightly behind the early pace of Judge and Schwarber, but the profile still supports a run at the top if things click over the summer.

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From a market perspective, this is shaping up to be a classic three-player race—with elite power, proven track records, and just enough volatility to keep pricing fluid as the season unfolds.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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