Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 10 Picks for Every Game

It has been a strange season for the Road to 272 Bets. We had a terrible first three weeks, and have since bounced back with six straight profitable weeks. The problem is that a few of the profitable weeks have been minuscule wins. Last week we finished up +0.02 units, and this week we finished up just +0.08. That means that despite technically stringing together six straight winning weeks, we're still down 2.70 units on the year.

The good news is we're only half through the challenge. 136 games down, 136 games to go. We still have plenty of time to get back in the green and can do it with a solid Week 10 performance.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. You can also get a list of all my picks and where I bet them on Juice Reel. Finally, you can check it out to find the six rules I follow for this challenge.

Road to 272 Bets Record

Week 9: 8-7 for +0.08 units
Season-to-date: 66-67-3 (-2.70 units)

NFL Week 10 Best Bets for Every Game

Commanders vs. Giants Prediction

I may have included the New York Giants in last week's edition of my Fraud Rankings, but my biggest issue with them has been their strength of schedule. Will I be betting on them when they take on teams like the Jaguars and 49ers in the coming weeks? Likely not, but they once again have a game against a bad team on Thursday Night Football when they face the Washington Commanders, and much like the majority of the season, I expect them to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

These two teams played to a tie in Week 5 earlier this season, but with it being a road game for the Giants and the fact that they had Jameis Winston at quarterback, I think we can admit they're in a better spot in the rematch. J.J. McCarthy has been surprisingly solid to begin his tenure with the Giants, ranking fifth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected (+5.3%) amongst quarterbacks who have played 60+ snaps this season. It's also no coincidence that over the last three weeks, the Giants have led the league in net yards per play at +1.5.

Meanwhile, the Commanders continue to be a poorly coached team that doesn't thrive in any area, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric.

I'll back the Giants at home on Thursday night.

Pick: Giants -1.5 (-110) via FanDuel

Patriots vs. Lions Prediction

I'm going to take a chance and bet on the Patriots to win as outright underdogs in a great buy-low, sell-high spot. New England is much better than it looked in Week 9 against the Packers, and the Lions still have plenty of issues that give me pause when it comes to betting on them as favorites.

The Lions' defense has a laundry list of injuries, and their metrics as a whole place them as one of the worst defenses in the entire league, ranking 30th in opponent EPA per play, 19th in opponent success rate, and 21st in opponent yards per play (5.4). Drake Maye has shown a history of torching bad secondaries, and you might be surprised to find out he comes into this game ranking fifth amongst all quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play and second in completion percentage over expected.

The Patriots should be able to rack up points, and as long as their defense can keep the Lions' offense in check, they'll be live to win this game.

Pick: Patriots +130 via FanDuel

Texans vs. Browns Prediction

I'm going to continue to buy-in on the Houston Texans. For the past few years, they have succeeded with an elite defense and an average-at-best offense. This year, their defense has been lackluster, but if they begin to hit their stride, they're going to all of a sudden become a dangerous team to face because their offense has been playing at a high level for the past number of weeks.

Ahead of Week 10, the Texans now rank eighth in the league in EPA per play, something that has been unheard of since C.J. Stroud's rookie year. Speaking of Stroud, he has been the driving force behind the Texans' offensive success. Since Week 4, he ranks second in the league in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in completion percentage over expected. Last week against the Chargers, he proved that he didn't need to rely solely on throwing the ball to Nico Collins either, spreading his targets across the entire Texans' receiving corps.

Meanwhile, the Browns are seemingly making the decision to go back to Deshaun Watson at quarterback after Shedeur Sanders put up a strong performance in their Week 9 overtime loss to the Saints. To me, that brings down their rating ahead of this week.

I'll lay the points with the Texans on the road.

Pick: Texans -4 (-109) via Caesars

Jaguars vs. Titans Prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been by far the busiest team at this year's trade deadline. They made three big moves on Monday, acquiring Jordan Davis from the Eagles, Jessie Bates from the Falcons, and Davon Godchaux from the Saints. Not only have the Jaguars been one of the best teams in the NFL so far this season, but they're going to be even better when they hit the road to take on the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday.

The Jaguars are the hottest team in football, even before the trades were made. They lead the league in DVOA, and they're the only team in the league to rank in the top five in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play.

You don't need me to tell you how bad the Titans are and how outmatched they are in this game. Lay the points on the Jaguars as long as you can get it below the magic number of 10.

Pick: Jaguars -9.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Panthers vs. Saints Prediction

This is a terrible matchup between two NFC South teams, and there's not a convincing argument to bet on either of them in what's a near coin-flip game. With that being said, there is an argument to be made for betting the OVER.

As bad as both teams are, the offenses for each of them have played better than their defenses. They enter this game ranking 13th and 22nd in EPA per play but 22nd and 25th in opponent EPA per play. Things get even worse for both defenses when you consider their respective success rates, which rank 24th and 30th in the NFL.

There is also one glaring weakness of both defenses, and it's their inability to get off the field on third down. They rank 28th and 31st in opponent third-down conversion rate, and the Panthers also rank 29th in red zone defense, which is also good news for OVER bettors.

Let's sit back and root for points in this NFC South battle.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Vikings vs. Packers Prediction

The Packers got off to a slow start to their season, but they're starting to pick up steam and, in my opinion, now is the perfect time to buy in on them. Since Week 4, the Packers are fifth in EPA per play and third in opponent EPA per play. I'm also not afraid to bet the Packers against the famous Brian Flores defense. Matt LaFleur may know the secret to moving the ball against them. Green Bay has scored 22+ points in five straight games against the Vikings, not including last year's Week 18 game in which the Packers started mostly backups.

We've all been waiting to fade the Vikings and for their poor offense to start leading to multiple losses, and this seems like another good opportunity to bet on exactly that happening in Green Bay.

Pick: Packers -3.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction

The Colts are bad and are certainly worth fading most weeks this season, but being only 2.5-point home favorites against the worst team in the NFL is a bit insulting. The Colts at least have some talent, especially on offense, while the Dolphins seem to be mailing it in this season. The Dolphins scored a measly nine points while gaining only 4.6 yards per play against the Lions' abysmal defense last week, which is a bad sign for them moving forward.

The Colts can at least still run the football, and now they'll be able to really ride Jonathan Taylor as the Dolphins rank 29th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. That's enough for me to take the Colts with the spread set at less than a field goal.

Pick: Colts -2.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Bills vs. Jets Prediction

Every season, there is a team that I'm higher on than the market is, and more often than not, I continuously lose money on them, yet I continue to bet on them. The New York Jets are the 2026 version of that team for me.

The Jets are far from a good team, but I still believe they're better than their record. They're 13th in net yards per play (+0.2), 19th in EPA per play, and 10th in success rate. Their secondary has been bad, but they rank 16th in opponent EPA per play, which could go a long way in keeping things tight against the Bills.

I'll take the points with the Jets.

Pick: Jets +7.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction

I want nothing to do with the Atlanta Falcons anymore. Their offense isn't living up to its potential with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback; their defense has regressed heavily since early in the season, and now they won't have their best defensive player, Jessie Bates, who was just traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even with Bates, the Falcons ranked 28th in the NFL in opponent success rate. Only the Jets, Dolphins, Titans, and Raiders ranked worse.

The Chiefs needed to find a way to throw the football, and they did exactly that this past week, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets. I'm not yet convinced whether or not they're an elite team, but they can run up the score against inferior opponents, and make no mistake about it: Atlanta is an inferior team.

Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (+100) via FanDuel

Rams vs. Cardinals Prediction

Both teams are going to be limping into this game. The Rams are going to be down Puka Nacua, which means Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Konata Mumpfield will be their starting receivers. Things are even worse for the Cardinals, who traded away Jacoby Brissett last week, and now they've lost Gardner Minshew to an injury, meaning Carson Beck will get his first NFL start. The Cardinals also lost their best wide receiver, Michael Wilson, to injury.

The number of injuries already makes this game tough to handicap, but I continue to be baffled by this Rams team. They managed to win and cover against the Commanders last week, but they had a net yards per play of -0.7. Their special teams are bad and they have been good, but not great on either side of the football.

That, paired with the complete lack of skill they have left at wide receiver, makes me afraid to lay this many points on them on the road. I'll trust the rookie quarterback and take the points with the Cardinals at home.

Pick: Cardinals +7.5 (-112) via BetMGM

Seahawks vs. Raiders Prediction

Betting the UNDER in this game made me nervous based on the fact that the Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL, ranking last in both EPA per play and success rate. With that being said, we may need to blindly bet the UNDER in any Seahawks game with the total in the 40s for the foreseeable future.

The Seahawks offense is going from bad to worse with Sam Darnold out with an injury. They are now 26th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate. Meanwhile, their defense remains one of the best in the NFL. Despite the tough start to their schedule, their defense has allowed a measly 4.1 yards per play, which is the lowest mark amongst all NFL defenses by 0.6.

Give me the UNDER in this interconference game.

Pick: UNDER 43 (-107) via Caesars

49ers vs. Cowboys Prediction

I strayed from my Cowboys' betting strategy last week and paid the price. I said early in the season that anytime the Cowboys play, we should bet against them when they're laying points, bet on them when they're underdogs, and bet the OVER when they're playing in a coin flip. If I had stuck to that strategy, I would've won a lot more bets on their games this season.

Let's get back to that strategy now that they're home underdogs to the 49ers. I know that San Francisco is the better team, especially defensively, but their injuries are starting to pile up. They may be without Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans at wide receiver, as well as Deommodore Lenoir and Renardo Green at cornerback. Those injuries could come back to haunt them against the Cowboys.

I'll take the points with Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys +4.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Steelers vs. Bengals Prediction

I've been writing for more than a week now about how I'm all in on the Bengals, so it'd be hypocritical of me to bet against them in a big Sunday Night Football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Week 4, the Bengals' offense has led the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate, and Joe Burrow is leading every NFL quarterback in virtually every passing metric despite already having his BYE week.

The Steelers are coming off their BYE week, but it's important to note that they've had the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL through the first nine weeks. Despite having a cupcake start to their schedule, they're just 14th in net yards per play, and their offense is in the bottom half of the NFL in both EPA per play and success rate.

This game is going to show us that the Bengals are contenders and the Steelers are pretenders. Lay the points on Cincinnati.

Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-105) via TheScore Bet

Chargers vs. Ravens Prediction

I have been smart enough to avoid betting on the Chargers for the majority of the season. Whereas other people have been betting on them because "they have to win/cover eventually", I've faded them as often as I can. With that being said, I'm picking my spot. I think this is the time for them to get their first win.

First of all, the Chargers' defense is just as good, if not better, than the Ravens'. The two defenses are 16th and 17th in opponent EPA per play, and the Chargers are 18th in opponent success rate, while the Ravens are 22nd.

Offensively, I understand the Chargers have been bad this season, but are we sure that Jacoby Brissett, an ineffective Derrick Henry, and a bad Ravens' receiving core are ready to outduel Justin Herbert and Co.? I'm not so sure.

I'm ready to finally back the Chargers. It's their time to end their winless season.

Pick: Chargers +194 via FanDuel

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