Road to the NBA Finals: NBA Playoff Predictions, Picks for Knicks vs. Spurs Game 2

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is in the books, and the New York Knicks have a 1-0 series lead.

Jalen Brunson battled an early knee injury – and some poor shooting – to score 30 points (13 in the fourth quarter) to lead the Knicks to a comeback win. Now, the San Antonio Spurs’ backs are against the wall as they look to even the series at home in Game 2.

Oddsmakers have set Victor Wembanyama and company as 5.5-point favorites on Friday night after they were favored by 4.5 points in Game 1. Historically, home teams bounce back pretty nicely in Game 2 after losing the series opener at home, but these Knicks don’t stop fighting.

New York has just two losses all postseason and both were by just one point.

Karl-Anthony Towns (18 points, 12 rebounds, four assists in Game 1) was terrific defending Wembanyama, who scored 26 points but shot just 6-for-21 from the field and had six turnovers. The New York defense leads the NBA in defensive rating in the playoffs (102.9) after Game 1.

If you’ve been following my “Road to the NBA Finals” column this postseason, you know the rules for this challenge:

Bet on every game through the play-in tournament and playoffs
Bet can be a spread, total, moneyline, player prop or game prop
ENJOY POSTSEASON BASKETBALL!

In Game 1, I cashed a player prop for Wemby, as he knocked down two 3-pointers in the loss.

Now, I’m looking to a side in Game 2, which could be a season-defining matchup for San Antonio.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Knicks +5.5 (-105) vs. San Antonio Spurs

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m going to trust the Knicks to keep this game close:

I took the Knicks to win this series, and Game 1 was about as good of a confirmation as any that they can hang with anyone in the league.

Not only did the Knicks win on the road and erase a double-digit deficit, but they ended up winning the game by 10 points. Brunson is the best closer in the NBA right now, and it seems like the Knicks have a chance to win as long as they’re within a couple possessions in the final minutes.

Let’s just look at this New York playoff run for a second. The Knicks rank:

No. 1 in offensive rating
No. 1 in defensive rating
No. 1 in net rating
No. 1 in effective field goal percentage
No. 1 in assist/turnover ratio

They’ve won 12 games in a row and have two losses that were over 40 days ago, both by one point. No matter how you feel about the “path” that New York took to get to this spot, it has blown out everyone in the East and just went toe-to-toe with the Spurs on the road and won.

While Wembanyama should have a better shooting performance in Game 2, the Knicks didn’t exactly light things up on the offensive end. But, their ability to space the floor and draw Wembanyama out of the paint in key moments was a difference maker in Game 1.

I know that home teams usually rebound in a big way after losing Game 1 – we’ve seen it all postseason – but this Knicks team doesn’t die. I think it’s a gift to get 5.5 points in a Finals game when New York may be the better team.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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