Rockies vs. Reds Prediction, Odds: Bet This Elly De La Cruz Prop Bet vs. Tomoyuki Sugano

The first-place Cincinnati Reds are coming off a series-opening win against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, and they’re heavily favored at home on Wednesday night with Brandon Williamson on the mound.

Williamson has gotten off to a slow start in 2026, but the Reds are still favored against Colorado righty Tomoyuki Sugano. Colorado (13-17 this season) has struggled on the road, winning just six of 17 games.

Meanwhile, the Reds have won eight of their last 10 games despite a rather average run differential (plus-6) so far this season.

My favorite play in this game is a prop bet for Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz, but I also have a game prediction for bettors to consider.

Here’s a look at the odds for Game 2 of this three-game series.

Rockies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rockies +1.5 (-163)
Reds -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline

Rockies: +129
Reds: -156

Total

9.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Rockies vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

Colorado: Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.42 ERA)
Cincinnati: Brandon Williamson (2-2, 5.40 ERA)

Rockies vs. Reds How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, April 29
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Great American Ball Park
How to Watch (TV): Reds.TV/Rockies.TV
Rockies record: 13-17
Reds record: 19-10

Rockies vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bets

Reds Best MLB Prop Bet

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+329)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Cruz is a great bet to hit his 11th home run of the 2026 season:

Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz is off to a great start this season, hitting .291 with 10 home runs and an .951 OPS. He’s really been hot over the last two weeks, especially when it comes to his power.

Cruz is hitting .300 with five homers over his last 12 games, and he’s hitting .368 with two homers over the last week. His OPS is over 1.000 during both of those stretches, making him an intriguing bet against the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.

Colorado has righty Tomoyuki Sugano on the mound, and he’s been an auto-fade in this market since entering MLB in 2025. Sugano allowed an American League-high 33 home runs in the 2025 season while he was with the Baltimore Orioles, and he’s already given up five homers in five starts this season.

Cruz has thrived from both sides of the plate, hitting five homers against lefties and five against righties. I’m buying him to stay hot on Wednesday.

Rockies vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

The Rockies are the best UNDER team in Major League Baseball this season, hitting it in 19 of their 30 games.

Despite that, I’m going to take the OVER on Wednesday night with this pitching matchup.

Williamson is off to a slow start this season for the Reds, failing to get through five innings in three of his five outings. He ranks in the seventh percentile in expected ERA (6.93) and the 12th percentile in expected batting average against (.292). That makes him extremely hard to trust, even though the Rockies are just 14th in OPS and outside the top 20 in runs scored this season.

I’m already fading Sugano in the prop market, and the righty’s ERA is a lot better than his advanced numbers suggest it should be in 2026. Sugano ranks in the 12th percentile in expected ERA, the 15th percentile in expected BAA, the sixth percentile in barrel percentage and the 20th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

He struggled with home runs in the 2025 season, and Sugano is getting hit hard again in 2026.

The Reds have hit the OVER in 17 of their 29 games, and Great American Ball Park is the No. 2 park in home runs (compared to the average stadium) and No. 5 in Statcast’s Park Factor, which is composite rating of how the observed effect each stat based on the events in the selected park.

I think this game ends up clearing 9.5 runs with relative ease given the pitching matchup on Wednesday.

Pick: OVER 9.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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