SI Betting Mailbag: NFL Week 4 and CFB Week 5 (Betting Splits, Bills Super Bowl Chances, and Bijan Robinson)

It feels like it wasn't that long ago that we were in the middle of the offseason, dreaming of the day that football would be back, and now here we are in October, heading into Week 4 of the NFL season and Week 5 of college football.

That means we have another edition of the Betting Mailbag to get into! Each week, I'll be answering YOUR questions about both the NFL and college football.

You have two ways to submit questions each week:

Send me (@IainMacBets) a DM on X or Instagram
Send me an e-mail at iain@si.com

Each week, we'll choose a few questions to answer in an article.

This week, we're talking NFL Week 4 and college football Week 5. Let's dive into the questions.

NFL Week 4 + CFB Week 5 Mailbag Questions

How much do public money and betting splits impact your picks for any given week?
Brandon D.

Very little, if any at all, to be honest. If you're a casual bettor, you probably see betting splits every week of the NFL season. If you're not familiar, betting splits are the percentage of the amount of money or bets that one side of a game is receiving. This post on X by Ben Fawkes is a perfect example of what I'm talking about:

Lopsided Week 5 CFB Top 25 games (by total 💰) at @BetMGM (current line shown):

91% of $$ on Notre Dame -22
88% on SMU -21
87% on BYU -6.5
86% on Georgia -25
85% on Houston -11
83% on USC -8.5
77% on Alabama -5.5
76% on Miami (FL) -17
74% on Florida -5.5
70% on Indiana -24.5
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 2, 2026

If you see these, you probably think, "If that many people are on one side, then fading the public and betting on the opposite side has to be the right move!"

Unfortunately, that line of thinking was incorrect. If making money betting was as easy as betting against the most popular sides of the week, then anyone with half a brain would be rich. The truth of the matter is that these splits can be misleading and leave out some vital information. One of the biggest questions I always have is: what was the line at when the majority of the bets came in?

As we know, lines move throughout the week. For example, in the post above, 86% of the money bet on Georgia vs. Vanderbilt is on Georgia -25. What percentage of that money was on Georgia when they were -24.5? What about now, when they're -25.5 as of writing this post? That one point might not seem like much to you, but it makes all the difference in the world for professional bettors. Some bettors out there may have bet Georgia when they were -24.5, but once it moved to +25.5, some other prop bettors may have jumped in on Vanderbilt.

Instead of overthinking these splits that are posted all over social media and popular betting advice websites, I think it's best to put them off to the side. When you do see them, simply look at them as interesting tidbits instead of something to sway you when deciding what bets to place.

Is Mississippi State for real this season?
Roger T.

It depends on how you define "real". Will they end up with a much better record than people expected heading into the season? Absolutely. Will they be a true National Championship contender? Certainly not. Can they make the College Football Playoff? They have a chance if some things break their way.

I'm a huge fan of Kamario Taylor and how he's played to begin this season, but a quarterback can only lead a team so far. The Bulldogs' defense has been a below-average unit, ranking 56th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play.

With that being said, they're going to be a fun team to watch, and I made the case for betting on them to take down Alabama in my Week 5 upset picks article.

Is this the year the Bills win it all?
Nathan H.

I know the Bills have looked unstoppable to begin the season, and Josh Allen is already building his resume for a second career MVP win, but I'm going to be the contrarian here and say that Buffalo is going to once again fall short.

There's no denying the Bills' offense is fantastic, and I think D.J. Moore is a great addition to it, but the Buffalo defense is an issue that's going to haunt them at some point this season, especially in the playoffs. The defense ranks 25th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate. That means when the Bills have to face elite offenses, which is certainly going to happen in the postseason, Josh Allen may have to score every time he touches the ball.

One mistake here or there, and the Bills will be watching the Super Bowl from home once again. If they don't want that to happen, they need to find a way to improve on that side of the football before the end of the regular season.

Are there any awards market bets you like in the NFL that you think are good after Week 3?
Mike S.

I do think there is some value to be found in the awards market. One of the ones I'm eyeing is Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year at +1200 on DraftKings. He was second on the odds list behind Jahmyr Gibbs to start the season, but two weird games with Cooper Rush at quarterback for the Falcons tanked his odds.

But if Week 3 against the Packers was any indication, now is the time to buy back in on Bijan at 12-1 because, this early in the season, he can make people forget about the first two weeks in a flash. He had 213 yards of total offense in the first game; the Falcons had a competent quarterback, which is a great sign for his production moving forward.

I also think this is the last chance to hop on Greg Rousseau of the Bills to win Defensive Player of the Year. I know I trashed the Bills' defense earlier in this article, but Rousseau is an exception. He leads the league in sacks with 6.0 through the first three weeks. Obviously, the betting market isn't convinced that he can sustain that, but at +1500, he's worth a bet on doing exactly that.

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