Steelers vs. Browns Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Bet the Underdog and UNDER on Thursday)

An important AFC North battle takes place on Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, as the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers with both teams sitting at 2-1.

Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win over the Cincinnati Bengals, where its offense played by far its best game of the season. The Steelers still rank 31st in the league in EPA per play, but Aaron Rodgers' three touchdowns in Week 3 were a positive step forward.

Meanwhile, the Browns have won back-to-back games as underdogs, knocking off Tampa Bay and Carolina behind two solid performances from Deshaun Watson.

The embattled quarterback still isn't back to his peak form, but he's given Cleveland a chance to win back-to-back games and put it in the conversation for a playoff spot in the AFC.

Oddsmakers have set the Browns as underdogs at home in this matchup, but these teams have been pretty even over the last several years, each going 6- 6 straight up in their last 12 meetings. Could the betting market be undervaluing the Browns against a Steelers team that hasn't really been that impressive in 2026?

Rodgers and the Steelers will look to show that their Week 3 offensive performance wasn't a fluke, but it won't be easy against a Cleveland defense that has held back-to-back teams under 20 points.

All season long, the SI betting team is predicting the final score of every NFL matchup as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread, moneyline, and total bets. Plus, we may end up hitting a final score along the way.

Here's a look at how I'm viewing this AFC North showdown on Thursday night.

Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Steelers -2.5 (-120)
Browns +2.5 (+100)

Moneyline

Steelers: -148
Browns: +124

Total

38.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

This line has held steady since opening with the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week, but there’s a chance it could move ahead of kickoff since the juice is heavily towards Pittsburgh (-120).

Steelers vs. Browns Score Prediction

Every week, SI Betting’s senior editor Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the underdog Browns on Thursday:

I may regret saying this, but I'm starting to think the Cleveland Browns are a better team than the betting market expected them to be. Deshaun Watson has been completely serviceable as their starting quarterback to begin the season, ranking 19th in adjusted EPA per play. That's far above Aaron Rodgers, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, ranking 31st in that metric.

The Browns and Steelers have extremely similar metrics through the first three weeks. The Browns have a Net Yards per Play of -0.6, whereas the Steelers are right behind them at -0.7. Despite that, the Browns are getting points on their home field on a short week. That's enough for me to back Cleveland in this spot.

I am on the same side as MacMillan in this matchup, as the Browns have looked pretty competent on offense that last two weeks with Deshaun Watson flashing some of the talent that made him such a coveted player earlier in his career in Houston.

Cleveland outranks the Steelers by a pretty wide margin in EPA/Play on offense, and Pittsburgh's defense fell out of the top 10 in EPA/Play after the Week 3 win over Cincinnati.

While the Steelers’ defense may be able to keep this game low-scoring, I’m actually taking the Browns to pull off an upset in this matchup and move to 3-1.

Rodgers and the Steelers are just 31st in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate this season, and I don’t see them moving the ball well against a Browns defense that has turned in back-to-back solid performances against Tampa Bay and Carolina.

Let’s not forget, these teams have split their last 12 matchups. So, why not side with a small home dog on Thursday night?

Final Score Prediction: Browns 19, Steelers 16

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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