Sun vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, July 17

Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury have dropped four games in a row and look nothing like the team that made the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season.

Phoenix is all the way down in 13th in the standings, and it needs a miracle second half of the season to make a push for a playoff spot. On Friday, the Mercury have a winnable game, as they’ll host the Connecticut Sun, who have just six wins in 24 games this season.

CT is clearly in a rebuild, as the franchise will move to Houston in the 2027 season. The Sun have been playing better as of late, winning four of their last 10 games to jump ahead of Seattle and into the No. 14 spot in the W.

Still, the Mercury are favored at home where they are just 3-8 in the 2026 campaign.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this matchup between two teams with dwindling playoff hopes.

Sun vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Sun +5.5 (-115)
Mercury -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Sun: +180
Mercury: -218

Total

163.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sun vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Friday, July 17
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): ION
Sun record: 6-18
Mercury record: 8-17

Sun vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

Aneesah Morrow -- doubtful
Saniya Rivers -- probable

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- questionable
Natasha Mack -- doubtful
Kyara Linskens -- probable

Sun vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper 20+ Points (-159)

The Mercury may be struggling, but Copper has put up some massive scoring games in recent weeks.

The star guard has 20 or more points in nine of her last 11 games, pushing her season average to 20.5 points per game while shooting 41.9 percent from the field. She’s struggled from beyond the arc (28.7 percent), but the volume for the star guard (16.0 shots per game) has made up for any efficiency issues.

The Sun have been a much better team defensively over their last 10 games, but I’ll trust that Copper’s usage will be enough for her to reach her season average on Friday.

Sun vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Sun are a solid underdog bet:

Can the Sun pull off an upset on Friday?

I’m not willing to go that far, but I do think CT is in a great spot to cover against a reeling Phoenix team.

The Mercury are in the bottom five in the WNBA in net rating (minus-4.2) over their last 10 games while the Sun have a positive net rating (plus-0.5) during that same stretch. CT has done that with defense, ranking third in the league in defensive rating over its last 10.

The Sun offense is still really shaky, but Phoenix has not demonstrated all year that it can win at home, never mind cover the spread. The Sun are 3-8 straight up and against the spread at Mortgage Matchup Center, and they enter this game on a three-game skid.

I think Connecticut can hang around in this game, especially after some impressive showings against Minnesota earlier this month.

Pick: Sun +5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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