Texans vs. Jaguars Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Houston Could Be a Sneaky Upset Pick)

Another week, another international game in the NFL as the Jacksonville Jaguars remain in London for Week 6 to take on the Houston Texans.

This is a massive AFC South matchup, as both teams entered the season as favorites to make the playoffs, but Houston has fallen off after an 0-4 start.

C.J. Stroud and company picked up their first win in Week 5 over the winless Tennessee Titans, and the schedule starts to ease up for the Texans over the next few weeks, giving them a chance to get back in the playoff picture.

A win over the Jaguars would go a long way for Stroud and the Texans, but Jacksonville is favored in London, where it is now 8-7 all-time.

Lawrence and the Jags were nearly upset as major favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5, but a last-second field goal by Cam Little improved the Jags to 4-1. They now have a two-game lead atop the AFC South and are looking to put themselves in position for the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Houston has won three of the last four meetings between these teams, but it was the Jags who got the last laugh in 2025, winning the division and finishing with the No. 3 seed in the AFC.

Jacksonville looks poised to finish ahead of Houston again this season, but this game could go a long way for the Texans' chances of climbing back into the AFC South race.

Houston's defense hasn't found the same groove that it did in the 2025 season when it finished No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play, which has contributed to the team’s slow start.

Can it get back on track against a Jags offense that has a ton of explosive plays this season?

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final scores of NFL matchups as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread, moneyline, and total bets.

When it comes to this AFC South matchup in London, I think there may be an upset brewing. Let's take a look at my score prediction and the latest odds for Texans vs. Jaguars.

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Texans +2.5 (-105)
Jaguars -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Texans: +120
Jaguars: -142

Total

42.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

The spread for this game has moved slightly in favor of Houston since opening with Jacksonville as a three-point favorite. Houston is now a 2.5-point underdog and the total in this game has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5 ahead of Sunday morning’s kickoff.

Texans vs. Jaguars Score Prediction

All season long, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shares his favorite bet for every game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s taking the Texans to cover:

There are some signs pointing to the possibility of the momentum switching for these two teams. The Texans got off to a terrible start to the season, while the Jaguars got off to a red-hot start, but don't be surprised if things begin to trend in opposite directions starting this weekend.

The Jaguars rank 10th in offensive luck and second in defensive luck according to RBSDM.com, while the Texans rank outside the top 10 in that metric on both sides of the ball. Defensively, the Texans outrank the Jaguars in success rate, but Jacksonville comes out on top when it comes to opponent EPA. That tells us that the Jaguars haven't been as good on a down-to-down basis, but they've allowed fewer explosive plays. I trust success rate a lot more when it comes to consistent, long-term results, so I'm giving a nod to Houston in that area.

It can't be overstated how different the Texans' offense is with Nico Collins healthy. They scored 31, 30, and 26 points in the three games he played in, but six and 17 points in their two games without him. He's going to make a huge difference with him being healthy against this Jaguars defense.

Jacksonville’s defense has been solid this season, but it ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed, which is interesting to watch in Week 6. The Jags nearly lost to a banged-up Eagles team in Week 5, and I’m not quite ready to crown them the class of the AFC.

Meanwhile, this is the swing game of the season for Houston. A win would put the Texans right back in the playoff conversation while a loss puts them in a spot where they need to win at least nine of their last 11 games to feel good about their playoff chances.

This defense (No. 1 in the league in EPA/Play last season) is better than it has shown during this 1-4 start. I’ll take the points on Sunday morning, and I think the Texans are live to pull off the upset.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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