Texans vs. Steelers Final Score Prediction for NFL Wild Card Weekend (Trust Tomlin as Underdog)

Can the Steelers cover as home underdogs?

The Pittsburgh Steelers and head coach Mike Tomlin are underdogs on NFL Wild Card Weekend. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers pulled off a wild win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 of the 2025 season to clinch the AFC North, and now they’ll host the Houston Texans on Monday night with a chance to advance to the divisional round.

Houston won nine games in a row to close out the regular season, earning the No. 5 seed in the AFC in the process. The Texans have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on EPA/Play, and oddsmakers have set CJ Stroud and company as favorites in this matchup.

So, can Aaron Rodgers make one last playoff memory and pull off an upset win?

The Steelers have a long history of success as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin, but this team is also aging and struggled to score against the Cleveland Browns in a potential clinching matchup in Week 17. Still, the return of DK Metcalf should help the Pittsburgh offense in a game that has a total set at just 39.5.

All season long, the SI Betting team has been making final score predictions for NFL games, and the playoffs are no different! This is a fun way for us to give a take on a game and hopefully help bettors decide on the spread or total in the process.

So, here’s a look at the odds and my prediction for the final wild card matchup this week. 

Texans vs. Steelers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Texans -3 (-120)
• Steelers +3 (+100)

Moneyline

• Texans: -180
• Steelers: +150

Total

• 39.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Steelers remain home underdogs in this game, but they are elite in that spot under Mike Tomlin, picking up an outright win as home dogs in Week 18.

This season, Pittsburgh went 5-4 against the spread as an underdog. However, it has a tough test against a Houston team that won nine games in a row after a 3-5 start to clinch the No. 5 seed in the AFC. 

Texans vs. Steelers Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite picks for the wild card matchups in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column where he bets on every playoff game: 

The Pittsburgh Steelers thrive when they're underdogs, especially at marks of over 3.5. Sure, they've been terrible at covering spreads in the playoffs in seasons past, but Aaron Rodgers adds an extra twist to this team, and getting DK Metcalf back for the postseason gives them a significant boost.

The Texans enter the postseason on a hot streak, but it's still concerning that their offense ranks just 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA, both below the Steelers' offense. If their offense can't find a way to put up points, they're going to struggle to win this game by margin.

Since 2007 when Mike Tomlin took over as the Steelers head coach, Pittsburgh is an NFL-best 23-9-3 against the spread as a home underdog. Oh, and the Steelers are 20-15 straight up in those games after beating the Ravens in Week 18. 

Houston may end up winning this game, but the Texans’ defense has looked vulnerable the last few weeks, especially against the Indianapolis Colts and Riley Leonard in Week 18. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if Aaron Rodgers can at least keep things close on Monday night. 

Final Score Prediction: Texans 19, Steelers 17

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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