Texas vs. UCLA Final Score Prediction for Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four

Madison Booker and the Texas Longhorns are one win away from reaching the national title game, but their toughest test to date stands in the way.

Lauren Betts and the No. 1 UCLA Bruins are looking to avenge their regular-season loss (by 11 points) to the Longhorns in this Final Four matchup.

Both of these teams were knocked out in the Final Four last season, but one of them will get a chance to compete for a championship on Sunday against the winner of the UConn-South Carolina clash.

UCLA hasn’t lost a game since Texas knocked it off in November, but the early odds for this matchup have the Longhorns as small favorites.

The SI Betting team will have a ton of picks for these Final Four matchups, and I’ve already shared the latest national title odds for the four No. 1 seeds left in the tournament.

Before releasing an official betting prediction later in the week, I’ve decided to share an early lean in this game by predicting the final score of this Final Four clash using the latest odds from FanDuel to help shape the pick.

Texas vs. UCLA Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Texas -1.5 (-110)
UCLA +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Texas: -128
UCLA: +104

Total

133.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Let’s make sense of these odds quickly before I dive into my prediction.

First off, the total jumps out at 133.5 since these are two of the five-best offenses (in terms of offensive efficiency) in the country. That being said, neither team loves to push the pace. Texas ranks 100th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted tempo metric while the Bruins clock in all the way at No. 274.

These teams combined for 141 points in their first meeting, but oddsmakers are expecting a much lower scoring game in the Final Four. I tend to agree, especially since Texas has allowed less than 60 points in every game so far in the NCAA Tournament.

As for the spread, the Longhorns are small favorites, something I wrote about in the opening odds for this game earlier in the week:

Both of these teams have come a long way since their meeting in Las Vegas, but Texas’ dominant showing in the NCAA Tournament is a major reason why it’s favored in this game.

The Longhorns have wins by 42, 42, 22 and 36 points, easily getting past Kentucky and Michigan in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

UCLA had a tough time with Duke in the Elite 8, but it did record a 24-point win over Minnesota in the Sweet 16.

When that’s factored into Texas winning the head-to-head meeting during the regular season, it makes sense that the Longhorns are small favorites on Friday.

Texas vs. UCLA Final Score Prediction

Texas’ defense has been extremely impressive in the NCAA Tournament, as it held No. 2-seeded Michigan to just 41 points in the Elite 8.

The Longhorns have a unique blend of size and speed on their team, and they shut down Betts earlier this season, holding her to just eight points in 37 minutes. That’s going to be tough to duplicate, but UCLA’s No. 1 offense isn’t nearly as effective if Betts isn’t dominating in the paint and forcing double teams.

Meanwhile, Booker may be the best pure scorer in the country, and the Longhorns have survived all season long despite not relying on the 3-ball (363rd in 3-point rate).

UCLA has a great field goal percentage defense, but it may lose the turnover battle (265th in opponent turnover rate) against a Texas team that ranks inside the top 10 in turnover rate and opponent turnover rate this season.

UCLA’s performance against Duke – another strong defensive team – in the Elite 8 was certainly concerning, as I don’t think the Bruins will be able to have a 20-point second-half turnaround against the Longhorns.

I lean with Texas winning this game, and I’d expect a more methodical pace since the Bruins love to get into their half-court sets.

For bettors, the UNDER and Texas to win outright are my early predictions for this Final Four showdown.

Final Score Prediction: Texas 68, UCLA 64

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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