Thunder vs. Suns Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3

Oklahoma City’s title defense is off to a great start in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company have won back-to-back games by double digits over the Phoenix Suns, and have moved to the odds-on favorites to win the NBA Finals this season. However, there is one concern going forward for the Thunder, and it’s one that has been looming over the entire 2025-26 season.

Jalen Williams (hamstring) was injured in Game 2 and did not return. He’s now listed as out for Game 3 in Phoenix. The Thunder have been able to survive with Williams in and out of the lineup, going 39-10 in the 49 games that he missed during the regular season.

After OKC easily covered in Game 1, the Suns covered as 17.5-point underdogs in Game 2. Now, they find themselves as 9.5-point home dogs in Game 3, as oddsmakers are still favoring the Thunder to sweep their first-round series for the third year in a row.

Can Devin Booker and company get back into the mix on Saturday afternoon?

It won’t be easy against the No. 1 team in the NBA, as the Thunder have a +12.7 scoring margin when set as road favorites in the 2025-26 season, going 19-18 against the spread in 37 games.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player prop and my prediction for Game 3 on April 25.

Thunder vs. Suns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -9.5 (-110)
Suns +9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Thunder: -470
Suns: +360

Total

214.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Suns How to Watch

Date: Saturday, April 25
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: OKC leads 2-0

Thunder vs. Suns Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out
Isaiah Joe -- doubtful
Jalen Williams -- out

Suns Injury Report

Mark Williams -- out
Grayson Allen -- questionable
Jordan Goodwin -- questionable

Thunder vs. Suns Best NBA Prop Bets

Suns Best NBA Prop Bet

Dillon Brooks OVER 16.5 Points (-126)

In Game 2, I bet on Dillon Brooks to clear this exact prop, and he did it with ease, scoring 30 points on 12-of-23 shooting.

The volume for Brooks in the playoffs is insane, as he’s taken 45 shots in two games, scoring 18 and 30 points in those matchups. He also cleared 16.5 points in the play-in loss to Portland, taking just 10 shots and six free throws on his way to a 20-point showing.

Brooks has a lot of postseason experience, and he clearly has been up to the challenge against the No. 1 defense in the NBA. After averaging 20.2 points per game in the regular season, Brooks is a bit of a steal at this number, especially if he’s going to take 20-plus shots for the third game in a row.

Thunder vs. Suns Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City has outclassed the Suns so far in this series, dominating on the defensive end.

Phoenix has an offensive rating of 99.5 (15th in the NBA through two playoff games) and an effective field goal percentage of just 47.6 percent. That simply isn’t going to cut it against this Thunder team that has shown it can win at margin on the road (+12.7 scoring margin as a road favorite in the regular season).

The Suns were 12-6 against the spread as home underdogs in the regular season, but this spread has moved too much for my liking in Game 3.

Sure, OKC is down Williams, but it has found ways to win all season with the All-Star forward sidelined. For oddsmakers to cut this line by eight points from where it was in Game 2 seems like an overreaction, even though OKC didn’t cover on Wednesday.

The Thunder have multiple 20-plus point wins over the Suns this season (regular season and playoffs), and I expect them to continue to roll in the first round.

Since the start of the 2024 playoffs, OKC has won six of 10 first-round playoff games by 10 or more points. It’s certainly capable of doing that again in Game 3.

Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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