Making Moves | December 3, 2025

I'm using the George Costanza method this weekend. If everything I do is wrong, that means the opposite must be right. We'll get into it on today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. It is Wednesday, December 3rd, and I got picks for this weekend, including an upset pick that may surprise you. All that and more, let's go. Let's take a look at the top headlines in sports betting today, starting with the college football playoff rankings, which the latest edition of them were released last night. Uh, some, uh, notable updates, uh, after this past weekend's college football action. Uh, we do have the. The usual suspects atop the odds list, nothing changed for number one, number 2, or number 3. Ohio State, still the betting favorite to win the national championship plus 185. Indiana plus 380, and then Georgia, it's kind of the third team in that mix at 750. Uh, Texas A&M was the biggest loser from this past weekend. Uh, they fell down to 7 in the rankings. They will still be in the college football playoff, uh, but that loss to Texas this past weekend and rivalry week, uh, has caused them to now, uh, fall out of the top 4. And of course, the top 4 spot comes with, uh, home field advantage in their first game and also a first-round by. So Texas A&M will have to play in the first round of the college football playoff, but they will still. Be, uh, in the mix. Uh, looking at the odds, uh, a team, uh, that will be in it because they don't play this weekend and they're not close enough to being outside the top 12 to fall out is Oklahoma. Uh, disrespectful in the odds. I was kind of surprised to see Oklahoma 65 to 1. This is a team, uh, that I've backed quite often, uh, this season, and a team that I believed in, uh, a team that has already beaten the likes of, uh, Alabama, uh, pretty far off the odds list, like the first, what, 10 teams. Uh, are all somewhat similar odds, but then like you have Ole Miss at 25 to 1, and then a huge drop off, and then just Oklahoma by themselves at 65 to 1 as like the only team that's in a college football playoff spot right now with that long of odds. So, I don't know what's going on with the disrespect for Oklahoma. I think they have just as good of a chance as the likes of like Ole Miss and maybe even Texas A&M or maybe even a Texas Tech to win. So, if you're looking for a long shot bet to win, uh, the college football playoff, the national championship. Uh, consider the Oklahoma Sooners at 65 to 1. I don't understand why oddsmakers in the betting market has no faith in this team, uh, whatsoever. Uh, two conference championship games that you do got to keep an eye on that are gonna have an effect on next week's final rankings, uh, will be. First of all, the SEC championship. Uh, if Georgia wins that game, they will remain a top 4 seed. If Georgia loses that game and Alabama wins, I don't really know how they're gonna do that seeding. Maybe Georgia falls out of the top 4. Could Alabama leapfrog them and get into a top 4 spot with a bye? Uh, so that is gonna be interesting to see how things play out, uh, if Alabama does beat Georgia. And if Georgia does win, there is a slight chance Alabama completely falls out of the playoffs, likely not, uh, but that is something to keep an eye on. Uh, but the biggest, uh, conference championship game, uh, that will have the biggest impact will be the Big 12 championship, because if BYU wins that game and upsets Texas Tech, that is gonna shift everyone back because they will keep Texas Tech in the playoffs based on the rankings last night, and BYU will then leapfrog some teams and get an automatic bid for being the Big 12 champion. That means Notre Dame. Probably would fall out of a college football playoff spot. So the Fighting Irish will be huge Texas Tech fans this weekend for the Big 12 championships. So, those are the two conference championship games to keep an eye on. I talked about the ACC championship game yesterday. I won't get into that again, but, uh, one week away from, uh, finally having the official college football playoff bracket for 2025. We have seen some movement in the NFL lines for week 14 already, only halfway through the week. Uh, the most notable line movement so far has been the Minnesota Vikings who opened up as two-point underdogs to the Washington Commanders. I know this is a game between two teams, uh, who won't be in the playoffs, uh. But it's still important for us better sometimes these games between non-playoff teams are the ones that can present the most value. So the Vikings have shifted from 2-point underdogs all the way up to 1.5 point favorites, uh, at home to the Commanders, likely due to the news that JJ McCarthy is expected to return to action, uh, this weekend. That just goes to show how bad Max Brosmer was this past weekend. The fact that it's a 3.5 point shift based off JJ McCarthy playing, who has also been terrible this season. Uh, so the Vikings will have their second-year quarterback, uh, back, uh, behind center for this weekend's game against the Commanders. We'll see, um, if he can maybe take a step forward in his development. I'm not holding out hope for it. Uh, the total in the game between the Bills and the Bengals has moved up 1.5. It opened at 51.5, up to 53, uh, not due to any injury news, but I think just due to the fact that these are two teams who are kind of all offense, no defense, especially. With Joe Burrow back in the mix, getting the win uh over the Ravens this past weekend. So if you like points, if you like touchdowns, if you like fast-paced action, uh, maybe the Bills and the Bengals game is the one you're gonna wanna tune into. Use one of your primary screens for on Sunday afternoon. Uh, we also have the Cleveland Browns who were 4.5 point favorites this weekend against the Tennessee Titans. That line has moved down 1 point, uh, to 3.5. Uh, yes, the Browns' defense is arguably the best in the NFL, uh, but, uh, in order to cover a big spread and win with margin. You gotta be able to score some points too, so maybe the betting market doesn't quite trust Shade Sanders to be able to lead this team to, uh, a big win against, uh, the lowly, uh, Tennessee Titans. Uh, I will say if you're looking for a bad team to use in Survivor this week, uh, maybe the Browns, uh, are an option. 3.5 point favorites now. Yes, the betting market has moved towards Tennessee a little bit, but it's still gonna stay above that. Magic number of 3. and then another slight movement, the Dolphins have moved from 2.5 point favorites up to 3 point favorites in an AFC East battle against, uh, the New York Jets. Uh, only half a point, but a key half point, as I've talked about before on this show. Uh, that magic number of 3 is the most important number when it comes to betting on football because that, that is the most common, uh, point differential in a game. Three points, obviously because of field goals. Uh, so with the Dolphins moving from 2.5 to 3, that is a pretty significant movement, uh, when it comes to the betting market. So, uh, Dolphins still quietly alive in the playoff race. They're gonna have to win out, uh, but they still have some fight left in them. So let's see if they can win and cover as now 3 point favorites against the New York Jets in week 14. Let's take a look at some other rapid-fire headlines in other sports around the world, starting with some baseball news, some more news from my Toronto Blue Jays who just signed Cody Ponce, another pitcher, uh, after signing, Uh, who did they just signed? Dylan Sea. Uh, last week, they now added Cody Ponce, who, if you don't know, he used to play for the Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2021, uh, but since then, and things did not go that well, he had a 4, uh, 318 ERA one year, uh, with the Pirates, but then the next year in 2021, yeah, 704 ERA in six starts. He ended up going overseas. He played in, uh, the Japan Professional League, uh, and he improved his stuff, and then this past year, he played. Uh, in the KBO, which is the Korean League, uh, and he won MVP, MVP of the KBO. He had a 189 ERA across 29 starts, uh , significantly improved his velocity. Uh, he added, I think it was a splitter that he added. Uh, so completely revamped, uh, some of his toolbox here. Now he's coming back to the majors and the Blue Jays. Uh, have signed him. So maybe he will be in the rotation. Maybe that might bump out Jose Borreos out of the starting rotation. If this Cody Ponce guy ends up being as good as he was in KBO, Jays are gonna have a nasty rotation next year. Uh, and we actually did see the betting market react a little bit. Uh, the Blue Jays have, uh, leapfrogged the Boston Red Sox in the odds to win, uh, the American League. They're up to 7. to 1 to win the American League behind only the Yankees, Mariners, and Astros. Uh, the World Series odds slightly improved as well from 17 to 1 up to 16 to 1. So the betting market at least, uh, respects, uh, this Ponce guy, the KBO MVP. Uh, we'll see, uh, if he can bring his stuff, uh, to, uh, North America, uh , and see if he can continue to improve, uh, in 2026. Big news in the NHL, uh, this Jesper Walstead guy. Uh, who I think they're calling the the Great Wall of Minnesota or something. Uh, rookie goaltender for the Minnesota Wild. He has played in 10 games this season, 4 shutouts already. Another shutout last night as the Wild beat the Edmonton Oilers 1-0. He now has a 174 goals against average, a 944 save percentage. This guy has been unbelievable. Uh, coming from Sweden, uh, of course, he's from Sweden, uh, cause Canada can't develop goaltenders anymore, so there's no way he's Canadian. He's from Sweden . He's been unbelievable in his 1st 10 starts, uh, in the National Hockey League, and the betting market once again has reacted to that as well. Logan Thompson is still the favorite to win the Vesna Trophy as the league's top goaltender. Uh, but if you want to get on this guy, Jasper Walstet, 15 to 1. He is still available at FanDuel. His odds have significantly improved, obviously over the past couple of weeks as he continues to just rack up shutouts. Now, can he keep playing at this pace for the rest of the season? Uh, probably not, but, uh, even if he plays at 80% of the level he's played at through his 1st 10 starts , he's gonna be a Vezna Trophy candidate. So you heard it here first, maybe hop on to Jasper Walstet to win the Vesna Trophy at 15 to 1. The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to win. Uh, they posted their 13th straight win last night when they defeated the Golden State Warriors. They're now up to 21-1. Uh, is their record this NBA season. Unbelievable. Uh, I think I mentioned this last week, uh, but it is worth mentioning as the season goes on, uh, as their odds shortened to break the NBA record for the most wins in a regular season, which would be 74 wins, and they'd have to go. It was 74-8, uh, to break that record, but FanDuel does have the odds at 520. I think last week, I think they're around 8 to 1 last week, uh, to break the NBA wins record. So their odds are starting to shorten. Uh, and to be honest, I like it. I kind of like them at 520. I mean, 21 and 1. They're on pace to do it right now. Uh, so, yeah, uh, I think that's worth a little bit of a sprinkle of plus 520. The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to do nothing but win games. Probably actually, you know what, some, probably some value on them to win the NBA championship as well. Is anyone gonna be able to beat this team in a best of seven series, plus 130, if you want to get on the Thunder now to win, uh, the NBA championship. Uh, last night's college basketball action, uh, the ACC against SEC Challenge, uh, ACC teams had the advantage after day one. they went 6 and 3, last night. One of those wins was Duke, who I was on to win and cover. They're covering. Uh, almost the entire game, uh, Florida did storm back, so Duke did not cover. That was one of my losses last night, but still, Duke did get the one point victory, so that was one of the ACC's wins. Uh, that is interesting to note because last year, uh, the ACC only got 2 wins in this ACC versus SEC challenge. I think they went. Uh, 15 and 2 or 14 and 2 last week, the SEC did. So, ACC bouncing back in a big way, uh, in this challenge, uh, in 2025, uh, in the second half of the games, uh, will take place tonight , and I do have a bet for one of the ACC SEC Challenge games. Uh, but if you want it, you gotta stick around till the end of the show. Gotta bring up Formula One because it, it, it is their final race of the year, uh, and if you don't follow, uh, Formula One, we have had some drama down the final stretch of the season because Max Verstappen continues to win races, and as a result, he has a chance to win. The driver's championship in the final week. It looked like all season, Lando Norris was gonna run away with it. He is still the -330 favorite to win, uh, the driver's championship, uh, heading into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, but Max Verstappen right behind him at 240. Uh, I have the information here right in front of me . For Max Verstappen to win the driver's championship in which would, uh, end up being one of the greatest comebacks for a season-long, uh, championship in F1 history. Verstappen would have to win, and he would need Lando Norris to finish P3, so third or worse. So if Lando Norris finishes 3rd, Max Verstappen wins, uh, Max Verstappen will come from behind after a red hot last few months to win, uh, the driver's championship. For what, 3rd, 4th time in his career? Uh, if I, uh, Verstappen can still winning if he finishes 2nd, but then you need Lando Norris to finish 5th or worse, which is unlikely to happen. Uh, so fun race for you F1 fans to tune into. Uh, this weekend, Verstappen is the favorite to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, a 130 with Lando Norris a 220. Uh, Oscar P Piostri, thank you. I always struggle with the that last name. He actually has a chance to win the driver's championship too, but he would need quite a bit to happen. He's 13 to 1 to win the driver's championship. Uh, he would need to win, and he would need basically both Verstappen and Lao Norris, uh, to finish outside, I believe the top four. So, uh, he is still technically alive heading into the final race of the F1 season. And then finally, uh, keep an eye on Friday because the World Cup group draw will take place on Friday. We'll talk about it next week. Uh, but I believe all the teams are now confirmed, uh, and for who's gonna play in the World Cup, but we will find out who will play who, uh, in the group stage. Obviously big for us North Americans because, uh, we host, uh, the World Cup this year. So, uh, for the Americans, you'll. See, uh, what teams, uh, the United States will play, uh, and, uh, at what stadiums for us Canadians, we get to see, we, I, I assume that Canada's gonna play all their games, uh, at least in the group stage in Canada, so we'll see, uh, what teams they will play against. If you're curious. Uh, the betting favorite to win the World Cup as of right now is Spain, uh, coming in as the favorite. Uh, with, uh, France right behind them, Argentina's in the mix. Uh, yeah, Spain is 440, England 6 to 1, France 7 to 1, Argentina plus 750, Brazil, plus 750. Uh, looks like it's probably gonna be one of those top 5 countries. USA. 65 to 1 to win the World Cup. Where's Canada? Scroll, scroll, scroll. 150 to 1 to win the World Cup. Let's win a game. That's the goal, I think for Canada this year in the World Cup. Let's win a game. 0-3 in the World Cup last time. We made it to the World Cup. That was a big step. We scored a goal in the game, that was fun. Let's win a game this time. Uh, but we will see some changing to the odds, uh, to win the World Cup once we, uh, get the, uh, groups drawn on Friday, cause there is always a group of deaths. So whatever top team is in that group of death, we're gonna see the odds fall off a little bit. So, uh, keep an eye on Friday's news, uh, because that is when we'll find out, uh, the World Cup, uh, group, uh, draws and what, what team will play in what group. Let's take a look at the latest odds to make the NFL playoffs now that we are in the final stretch of the regular season. Just 5 weeks to go, so the playoff picture, uh, becoming a little bit more clear, but in some ways actually a little bit more murky than it was, uh, just a few short weeks ago. So let's start in the AFC. Uh, congratulations to fans of the Patriots and the Broncos. You are such a lock to make the playoffs that, uh, you can't bet on it happening. Odds off the board for the Patriots and the Broncos to make the AFC playoffs. Uh, right now, uh, the Jaguars are sitting at, uh, the 3rd seed, uh, now that they have overtaken the Colts, uh, in the AFC South . Obviously that might not last long. Uh, the Colts play the Jaguars this weekend. If the Colts win, they'll obviously be back in, uh, the lead for the AFC South, but the. The Jaguars, their odds to make the playoffs have improved to -500. Uh, that is great news for Jacksonville, and that win against the Chiefs, uh, could loom large at the end of the season because that gives them, uh, the tiebreaker. Actually, their win against the Chargers too. They have tiebreakers against, uh, teams that they could potentially be competing, uh, with for a wild card spot. The Ravens, who are still technically winning the AFC North, uh, due to a tiebreaker, -200, a little bit of a drop off for the Ravens, uh, with their odds to make the playoffs after that loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh, right now in the 5 spot is the LA Chargers at -150. Big game for them against the Eagles coming up this week on Monday Night Football, and then you have the Colts at -290. And oddly enough, the Bills, who are currently in the final playoff spot, -2200 to make the playoffs, is a betting market, even though they're probably not gonna win the AFC East at this point, the betting market does have faith in them at least making the playoffs, uh, as a wild card team. A Little bit surprising actually to see the odds are that short because they don't have the easiest schedule in the world, the rest of the way to go. They have the Bengals, which is certainly not a gimme with Joe Burrowback, the Patriots next week, who they've already lost to, they have the Eagles. On December 28th, uh, obviously that's not an easy game. You'd think they would beat the Browns and the Jets in the other two games, but, uh, going 2 and 3 would not be good enough for them to make the playoffs, so. Maybe if you want a long shot bet, uh, maybe bet on the Bills to not make the playoffs if they stumble in the final stretch of the season. Uh, and then you have the Texans who have fought, uh, all the way back up to the number 8 spot. They are now -154, uh, to make the NFL playoffs. Uh, they will, uh, they probably need the Jaguars or I guess the Chargers to kind of stumble, uh, for them to take one of those spots. They have the Steelers a + 235 who probably would need to win. The AFC North to get in the playoffs. The Chiefs, for the first time this season, underdogs to make the NFL playoffs plus 122. They cannot afford to lose another game. That makes their game this weekend on Sunday Night Football against the Houston Texans. Probably a loser goes home game. Whoever loses that game can have a tough hill to climb and a near impossible hill to climb if they want to make the NFL playoffs. So, the Chiefs who have made. Uh, the AFC championship, I think 7 straight years now, might not even make the playoffs. The Dolphins, still alive, 11 seed, 80 to 1, they would have to win out, uh, and get some help, but they actually have a kind of easy schedule, uh, to close out the year. So there's a chance they win out, but even if they win out, uh, they might not get in. Uh, and then you have the Bengals, plus 8:20. Joe Burrow's back, uh. Uh, the AFC North, very gettable, only 2 games back from the Ravens and the Steelers in the AFC North. They have another game, uh, against the Ravens, uh, coming up. Uh, so the Bengals still kind of in the mix to win the AFC North with Joe Burrow back, but, uh, I have a feeling it's gonna be the same story that we've seen from the Bengals over the past couple of years where they go on a late run, they need some help in the final week, and they just fall a little bit short. Let's switch over to the NFC. The #1 seed in the conference is the Chicago Bears. What a world. Never thought I would have said that at any point this season, but here we are. Uh, the Rams though are the only team who don't have, uh, odds to make the playoffs on the board. Uh, they've been taken off because they are such a lock to make it to the postseason. Uh, it is funny when you look at the playoff seeding right now in the NFC where, uh, of the teams who are currently sitting inside a playoff spot in the top seven, the Bears have the worst odds, despite them being, uh, the number 1 seed. Uh, so Bears at -355, uh, and they do have a tough schedule to close things out. That is why they have two games against the Packers. They head to Lambeau Field this week. I believe they played the Lions, uh, one more time. Yeah, they close out the season against the Lions. They have a game against the 49ers. Really the only game they'll probably be favored in to close out the year, uh, is in week 15, they host the Browns. They'll likely be favored in that one. so even though the Bears are the current number 1 seed , uh, they are not, uh, locked into a spot just quite yet. Uh, the Eagles minus 3000 at the 3 seed, uh, take quite a bit for them to fall out of a playoff spot, but if you remember two years ago, it's kind of a similar situation. The Eagles were like the top team in the NFC after like the 1st 12 weeks. They still ended up making the playoffs as the final wild card team, uh, but they blew the the. Their lead in the NFC East. They lost that division title, and then they got blown out, I believe it was by the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs. So, uh, eerily similar season this year for the Eagles than it was, uh, two years ago, uh, when they, uh, just barely snuck into the playoffs after being like 10-1 through the 1st 11 weeks. Buccaneers at -700. Nobody wants to win the NFC South, it seems like. Seahawks -2200, Packers -950, 49ers up to -1100. And then you have the Lions who are now at plus money for the first time this season to make the NFL playoffs. They're gonna need some help to close out the year. They're gonna need. Uh, either the Bears to fall off, which is certainly possible. Uh, I mentioned that week 18 game against the Bears and Lions, that could be a winner gets in type of game, uh, or they need the Packers to fall off or the 49ers . Uh, the Cowboys, they're + 265 to make the playoffs, uh, but I think they're around 6 to 1 to win the division. Which is surprising to me because I think their, their easiest path to making the playoffs is to come back and win that NFC East. The Eagles are imploding, the Cowboys are getting hot, they split their season series. Uh, so potentially, uh, maybe sprinkle on the Cowboys around 6 to 1 to win, uh, the NFC East. And then the Panthers is a very similar situation. They will not be a wild card team, but there is still a chance they could catch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and win the NFC South. They do have 2 games against the Buccaneers in their final 5 games of the season, so. Panthers very much alive. They just beat the Rams, the team that was supposed to be the best team in the league. If they can beat the Rams, they can beat the Buccaneers twice and sneak into the playoffs. So that's another bet, maybe consider the Panthers at 390. So the NFC pitcher, as you can see, a lot more clear than the AFC pitcher. Uh, really, it's just that final wild card team, uh, spot, uh, who it's gonna come down to, whether it's the Lions, 49ers, Packers, or Bears. Uh, and then you have a little bit of a close race in both the NFC East and the NFC South. I took to Twitter this week to ask you guys who the best team in the NFL is because it seems, uh, very strange this year that there is no elite team in the league at all or either really either conference. Uh, last week, I think we all would have said the Rams, but then the Rams went on and lost to the Carolina Panthers, who aren't even a playoff team, uh, at the moment. So, uh , it really is up to interpretation who you think the best team is. Now, the Rams are still. The betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, so they still have a strong argument, uh , that they're the best team in the NFL despite losing to the Panthers. But I wanted to know, uh, what you people think. So if you don't already, be sure to follow me on Twitter, Ian Mac Betts, I A I N Mac Betts. Uh, so I posted the question, which team is the best? In the NFL right now. Uh, the three teams I put in the poll were the Rams, Packers, and Patriots. Uh, and then other, uh, which you could reply to, and really to no, uh, big surprise, the Rams were the most popular choice at 44, uh, 44.1%. Patriots second at 34.9%. Or I don't you love to see it. I'd love to see it. I don't higher than I thought it would be. Yeah, but I think, I think I might have messed up, and this is actually what I wanted to ask you about. I was struggling. I knew I got to put the Rams. I knew how to put the Patriots in. I think maybe I messed up putting the Packers in as the third choice. Only 8.1% of people voted the Packers. So maybe if I would have put a different team, like what third team would you put in there right now if it was not the Packers? Because I think you definitely put the Rams, definitely put the Patriots with the, are the Broncos a more logical choice? Denver maybe would have been, but I don't think anyone actually thinks Denver's that good though. Maybe the Bills, but a lot of people don't think the Pats are that good, right? Well, there is, and, and a lot of people don't think the Rams. are that good. There's no dominant team in the NFL. We've been talking about this for weeks, right? Uh, so we did get some replies. So let's see what those replies are, because 12.9% of people did say other. Uh, one guy, and this is why I think I thought maybe I was wrong, JW 22 said Packers, LOL. What are you smoking this morning? Uh, and the reason why I put the Packers in there because they do have the third best Super Bowl odds. So I didn't just come up with the Packers. But to be clear, you don't smoke. I, I don't. I smoke cigars, uh, but so, uh, but I don't know how to smoke a cigar while making this bowl. Uh, uh, 3 replies, uh, 3 other replies. Neil Parker, Dallas Cowboys, uh, Mass F also said Dallas Cowboys. Let's bump the brakes a little bit on the Cowboys. Big 3 wins for the Cowboys. I'm not taking that away from them, but, uh, they're not even in a playoff spot, and they're huge underdogs to make the playoffs. They say they're the best team in the NFL is a stretch, um. Ricky Mickey , Bobby said Pats have had the easiest cakewalk schedule of all time. I agree. I think quite literally they have the easiest schedule of all time, of all time. Very, yeah, easy though, but who has a hard schedule? Uh, the Eagles have had an extremely tough schedule. The Chiefs have actually had a very tough schedule. Um, the Patriots, I will, to defend the Patriots, they've had a very easy schedule, but at the end of the day, the sign of a good team is you beat the teams they're supposed to beat, and they've beat the teams that they're supposed to beat. They also have beat, uh, the Bills. The first time they played them, they beat the Buccaneers who are currently a playoff team, um, so they have Raiders loss is just brutal, but yeah, but it's week one, weird things happen, uh, in week one, yeah, so I, I think my vote would still. I think my vote might be the Seahawks still. Yeah, they, you could have put maybe I could have put the Seahawks in, but the, the Seahawks have an issue where it's Sam Darnold, and Sam Darnold in every big game has, he's yet to show up in big moments yet. Kind of like Lamar. Yeah, yeah, but Lamar has had good playoff performances, but he just hasn't been able to win, whereas Sam Darnold in big games isn't bad. Like when they played the Rams this season, which was a big game, he threw 4 interceptions. Like Lamar's not throwing 4 interceptions in the playoffs, but he's not quite doing enough to get the win. Um, so the Seahawks might be my vote, but I, I think the Rams make a lot of sense of 44.1%. I just don't know about the Patriots. The Patriots' defense has issues. Drake made very good, probably MVP. Is their defense good enough to, to get there though? No. One seed, the number one seed's big. I'm huge, right? That's like home field advantage. That's a, that's a buy. And the other thing is too, it's like there aren't that many good teams. So especially in the AFC, you, let's say you get the one seed and then you are playing who like. You don't want to play the Chiefs. Probably not gonna play the Broncos because the Broncos would be 2 seed. So it's like you're the Bills, I mean it could be the Bills. Yeah, that could be bad, but Jaguars, like, or that AFC, you know, yeah, if it's Jaguars, I'd take the Patriots in that game. If it's Chargers, I'd probably take the Patriots. Like really the only team, such a weird season. Maybe, maybe, maybe the Patriots back. Maybe we get you on the Patriots wagon. Never. Who's your second favorite team? Uh, I used to cheer for the Chargers actually quite a bit growing up, which makes sense because they're kind of the Falcons of the AFC, um, because I was a massive LT fan. I love LaDainian Tomlinson, so I, I, I mean, you ran, you, your running style was so much like LaDainian. That's what people , so that's what people say. They're like, is that LT out there? Oh no, it's not. Oh no, he's white. Oh jeez, yeah, yeah, no, uh, yeah, so Chargers would be, and then I, you know, I think especially now that I'm living in Toronto, I think I do kind of cheer for the Bills and the Lions a little bit because most Toronto people especially love the Lions, right? Gotta love the Lions, but they might not even make it to the playoffs. I mean, if the Lions have a few more wins, they could be on this pole as potentially the best team in the NFL, but now they're on. Uh, the outside looking in, 2 losses to the Packers. So come on, you gotta end up on our poll. If you're not on this poll, who are you in the league? Exactly, right. Uh, maybe I voted for other cause maybe I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. No, just kidding. Uh, a lot of close losses this season though. Next year is our year for the Falcons. Get Kirk Cousins on the books, get a few more extra pieces, get a new head coach. Maybe the Falcons will be on this pole at the start of next year, probably not. Uh, all right, I do still think though, 44.1% of people, I agree, uh, I agree with the folks at home. I do think right now if you had to ask who the best team in the NFL right now, it is the Rams cause they don't really have a weakness. They got very good offense. Matt Stafford, potential MVP, very good defense, a coach who has already won the Super Bowl in the past, you know, a core group of players who has already won the Super Bowl, so. Uh, despite that loss to the Panthers, I do think heading into week 14, we can confidently say the Rams are the best team in the NFL. I went 1 on 1 with my NFL upset picks last week, lost on the Titans to beat the Jaguars, did win on the Texans to take down the Colts this week. For my first pick, I'm gonna do something surprising. Uh, for those of you who've been watching the show, you know that I've been anti-Bears all season. I've been calling the Chicago Bears frauds. Well, now it's time for me to utilize the George Costanza method, cause it has not worked for me. I've lost money betting against the Bears, so, as George Costanza says, if, if everything you do is wrong, that must mean the opposite. Is right. So give me the Chicago Bears to upset the Green Bay Packers in week 14, plus 2:45 on the money line to take down the Packers in a pivotal NFC North showdown. Uh, it's time for me to jump on the bandwagon. Yes, maybe some of their DVOA numbers and net yards per play numbers aren't great. But I do have to recognize the Bears do a few things very well. Uh, for, for one, I mean, they lead the NFL in average turnover margin, which is huge. Uh, if you have a +1.4 turnover margin per game, uh, you're gonna be in position to win, uh, a lot of those games. Also, the Bears have done an extremely good job of running the football. We saw that last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Their offensive line has been significantly better, uh, led by the former Falcons center, Drew Dahman. Uh, we're missing him in Atlanta a little bit. Uh, so I think they're gonna be able to run the ball actually this weekend against the Packers as well, cause the Packers' run defense, uh, has not been great at times this season. They're outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, whereas the Bears' offense is 3rd in offensive rush success rate. So I think that could be the difference maker. Uh, I'm sorry to Bears fans out there, uh, for doubting your team. I will now jump on the bandwagon if you'll have me. I'll take the Chicago Bears, plus 245 on the money line against the Green Bay Packers. Uh, I'm gonna take the Texans for the 2nd time, uh, 2nd week in a row. This Texans team I've been high on all season. Uh, I've actually been right about the Texans, kind of getting hot after a slow start to the year, so let's continue to ride with the Texans after they upset the Colts last week. This week I'll take them to beat the Chiefs, uh, at +152. Uh, there's something to be said for the Chiefs. They just are not, uh, getting that late game variance that they had last year. Uh, whether it's luck or what I actually think it is about the Chiefs, I think it's a little bit of fatigue. That's what they looked, uh, to me, they look tired, uh, which makes sense. When you're, when you have a deep playoff run after deep playoff run after Super Bowl appearance after Super Bowl appearance with the same core of players, that's a lot of extra football that the, that these guys are playing . That's a lot shorter of an offseason. Season that these guys have. Not as much time to rest both physically and mentally. And I think it's catching up to them this season, and that's why they're making mistakes in key moments. They're not able to convert these close games to wins like they were, uh, and like they had in previous seasons. So, uh, now they have to take on what I think is the best defense in the NFL. The Texans ranked 1st in opponent of the EPA, 3rd in opponent success rate, 2nd in defensive DVOA, 4th in opponent yards per play . A tough test for Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs' offense. So I will continue to ride with the Texans, plus 150, + 152 in my second upset, uh, for NFL week 14. I have two upset picks for conference championship weekend, uh, starting with Jacksonville State to take down Kennesaw State in the conference USA championship game. Uh, just a small underdog, but I will take Jacksonville State a +114. I actually think. The wrong team is favored in this one. A lot of the underlying metrics in this game support Jacksonville State. They're 53rd in net adjusted EPA per play, while Kennesaw State is 102nd. Uh, they also outranked them in net success rate, and also the, uh, style of play also favors Jacksonville State. They're both run first team, uh, teams. Actually, Jacksonville State ranks 5th in the country in rush play percentage, but Kennesaw State does a much worse job of defending. Ending the run 88th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.6 yards per rush. Also 111th in opponent rush EPA. So I think Jacksonville State will be able to run the ball successfully. I will take them to pull off. The upset is just small underdogs at + 114. Uh , I'm also gonna take Indiana, the Hoosiiers, to take down Ohio State in the Big 10 championship, which is the game of the week. It's number 1 in the country against number 2 in the country. And I think Ohio State being the, uh, defending national champion, uh, is, uh, causing a little bit of the betting market to favor them more than they should in this game. I think this game is pretty much a coin flip. If you look at some underlying metrics, they're right next to each other in a lot of areas. Uh, net adjusted EPA per play, the 1st and 3rd net success rate, the 1st and. 3rd down conversion rate, for example, 1st and 2nd. Uh, these two teams by almost every metric are the two best teams in the entire country. Uh, so why not take a shot on the underdog, Indiana to pull off the upset. So I'll take the Indiana Hoosiers plus 162 is my second upset pick for conference championship weekend. Let's take a look at the race to make the NBA playoffs now that we're a couple of months into the season, or I guess 1 month and a half months into the season. Uh, the first seed right now in the Eastern Conference is the Detroit Pistons who continue to rack up wins. They are -50000 to make the NBA playoffs. Uh, and already it is kind of crazy in the NBA. We kinda already know the, uh, playoff teams, so we can rip through this pretty quickly cause the Pistons -50000. The Raptors of all the teams in the top seven right now actually have the shortest odds despite them being the #2 seed. Raptors have surprised some people, uh, this season, uh, but big game for them on Thursday night. LeBron's come to town on Thursday night. Uh, the Raptors are -400 right now despite being the number 2 seed. You have. The Heat big favorites, Knicks big favorites, Magic big favorites. Cavaliers -8000 to make the NBA playoffs, despite them being the number 6 seed. You have the Hawks -470, and things kind of seem to get a little bit more interesting when we're talking about which team is gonna get that final 8th seed. Now, of course, in the NBA, uh, nowadays there is that play-in, uh, tournament, uh, to determine the 7 and 8th seed. Uh, what do you think about the play-in tournament? I, I think it's dumb. Not a fan either. I think it's dumb. Uh, but, uh, whoever ends up being the number 8 seed will have to play in the play tournament. It looks like the number 8 seed is gonna come down to, uh, the Celtics, 76ers, Bulls, or Bucks. Uh, the Bucks, uh, pretty disappointing season for them so far, and there's some rumors that Giannistetaquambo is demanding a trade, possibly to Los Angeles, perhaps. Uh, so that would, uh, be a death sentence for the Bucks' playoff chances if they do trade Giannis away. Uh, and then you have the Hornets, 25 to 1. Nets, Pacers, and Wizards, bad news, you've been officially eliminated from the NBA playoffs. A month and a half into the season, FanDuel won't even post any odds for you guys to make the playoffs cause it's, uh, uh, that, uh, small of a likelihood of it happening. So apologies to fans of the Nets, Pacers, uh, and Wizards. Let's take a look at the Western Conference, which is of course led by the Oklahoma City Thunder, who only have 1 loss in the entire season, so their odds taken off the board to make the NBA playoffs. The Lakers minus 50,000, and the Houston Rockets odds taken off the board to make, uh, the NBA playoffs. It looks like in the Western Conference, it is kind of 6 teams above the rest, maybe even 7 teams if you toss in the Warriors there. Uh, but yeah, between the Thunder, Rockets, and Nuggets. You can't even bet on them to make the playoffs because the betting market thinks they're that big of a lock. You have the Lakers, a -50000, Timberwolves a $-3500 Spurs-750, Warriors -800 . So once again, just like the Eastern Conference, it looks like it's a race to see who will be the eighth team in the Western Conference playoffs. Right now, it is, uh, looking like it's between the Suns at +144, the Blazers at +174, and then maybe the Grizzlies at 4 to 1. The Mavericks at 520. Still some faith in the LA Clippers, uh, who are, are all the way down at +172. Uh, the Clippers have, uh, been a disaster this season. They're supposed to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and I don't know if you saw Chris Paul now, they're like just cutting his contract for some reason. I didn't have time to really read into that this morning, but that's weird. They're just like sending him home. Uh, and then there's the whole issue with maybe they're paying Kui under the table through like a sponsor that didn't actually ask him to do anything. Clippers are a disaster right now, but betting market still has them at +172 to make the playoffs, but likely. Based on kind of what I've seen and based on the odds, that 8th seed will come down to as we see the number 7 seed, uh, current number 7 seed, Suns plus 144, or Blazers plus 174. It's gonna be probably one of those teams that sneaks in the Western Conference playoffs, uh, but at the end of the day, that's not really gonna matter, cause the Oklahoma City Thunder, maybe the Lakers, maybe the Rockets, maybe the Nuggets, probably one of those four teams are gonna end up representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals when it's all said and done. 2 and 2 record last night with my picks for a very small loss, so really, uh, not, uh, too bad of a night. Uh, Lightning lost against the Islanders, we went 1 and 1 in the NHL. Lightning lost against the Islanders, which is actually the biggest favorite that I bet on. It would have been nice for them to come through for us, but they, uh, fell to the Islanders 2 to 1. Capitals came through for us last night. That was a nice bet to wake up to, cause I was asleep by that, by the time that game ended. -104 win on the Capitals, and then. Basketball and went 1 and 1. Duke looked all game like, uh, like they're going to cover, ended up only beating, uh, Florida by a single point. But then we did get an NBA player prop. How about that little NBA winner for the people. Shayden Sharp, uh, under 1.5, 3-point field goals made. Uh, he attempted 3. He went 0-3, uh, for the Blazers against the Raptors, so that was a winner as well. But, uh, 2 and 2, with 1 $30 winner, $120 winner that, uh, Uh, ends up being a small loss because of the juice, so a loss of $3.61 last night, but you know what, that's not bad, we can handle that. We're still up, still up big, uh, still up $142.89 on the season. So let's keep things rolling. Tonight, 4 plays tonight, once again, 2 in the NHL, uh, 1 in college basketball, and an NBA player prop. We're gonna go kind of with the same, uh, type of picks that I did last night. So let's start with my Uh, NHL picks, and I didn't want to do this, but I actually do think they're a good bet tonight. Uh, the Canadians minus 102. I knew the bell was coming. Uh, I will take the Habs tonight. I think this might be the first time all season that I've bet on the Montreal Canadiens. Le Apiton, uh, but I like them at -102 here at home against the Winnipeg Jets, cause the Jets, uh, Connor Hellebach go for 3 to 4 weeks, uh, with an injury. Tonight it looks like, not confirmed, but it looks like, uh, Thomas Milic, uh, will get the start for them tonight in between the pipes. Uh, and that's not good news, cause he has a 265 goals against average. He has an 882 save percentage. That's bad news for the Jets when they take on the Canadians who have been the best shooting team in the NHL so far this season. Good shooting team at home against a bad goaltender, to me, that seems like a good enough bet for me. So I'll take the Canadians as very slight underdogs, minus 102 on the money line against the Winnipeg Jets. Uh, I will take the Anaheim Ducks as a pick them, -110 at home to the Utah Mammoth. Uh, I was high on the Mammoth heading into this season. I thought they were a great plus money bet to make the playoffs. They're now pretty big favorites to make the playoffs. Uh, but now I think the betting market has overreacted to them a little bit. I've kind of been monitoring their games. They're, Uh, favored by more than what I think they should be. They're a good team, don't get me wrong. Um, but, uh, they're still around middle of the pack, maybe slightly above average, in a lot of areas like expected goals and high danger scoring chances, uh, right next to where kind of the ducks are. So I think these are two very comparable teams. I think at a neutral site, uh, like if this was a Winter Classic or something, then I would, uh, set. This as a pick them at -110 aside, but it's the Ducks who are the home team tonight. So I think that home ice advantage, uh, is enough to make the Ducks worth a bet at -110. So I'll take the Ducks at home to the Mammoth at -110. Moving on to college basketball, we have an SEC against ACC battle, uh, in the second of, uh, the two days between the SEC and the ACC championship. I will take Clemson, the Tigers, plus 10.5 minus 110 against the Alabama Crimson. Tied. I've talked about the, uh, Alabama a few times already this college basketball season. They are a 3-point shooting team. If you can defend the perimeter, you can at the very least hang tight with Alabama, and Clemson has done a great job of defending the perimeter this season. They are top 10 in opponent. Three-point field goal percentage keeping teams are shooting just 26.6% from beyond the arc. Uh, Clemson has also done a very good job of protecting the ball, very low in turnovers. Fourth, an effective possession, uh, possession ratio, whereas Alabama ranks 96th. So, Crimson Tide, definitely a more skilled team, talented team, uh, but Clemson, the more disciplined team, uh, who can also defend the perimeter. So, I think Alabama's gonna win, uh, but 10.5, I think is too many points to lay on the Crimson Tide tonight. So I'll take Clemson, plus 10.5 at minus 110. And let's see if we can hit an NBA player prop for the 2nd straight night. Uh , it is the Houston Rockets, who are taking on the Sacramento Kings, uh, and this game is a matchup between, The best rebounding team in the NBA and the worst rebounding team in the NBA. So I'm gonna take, uh, the Rockets' top rebounder, Steven Adams, over 8.5 rebounds a + 104. Now, he's a little bit of an interesting case because he's leading the team in rebounds per game, but he's only playing an average of 21.6 minutes per game. But it seems like whenever. He's on the floor, he grabs boards. Uh, actually, in his last game on Sunday against the Jazz, only played 17 minutes, still managed to get 12 rebounds, uh, which is crazy . So, uh, yes, he is not a starter for them, but he plays enough, uh, that I think he can go over this rebounding total at 8.5, especially with it a plus money. And on top of all that, He might see some increased minutes tonight because uh the, uh, Houston Rockets are a significant favorite, so it could be a blowout against the bad Sacramento Kings. If it's a blowout, their bench players will be on the on the court more, which could lead to more minutes for Stephen Adams, which could lead to more opportunities to grab some more rebounds. So I'll take Stephen Adams over 8.5 rebounds at +104. Let's take a look at the safe. I think we're sticking with the $100 there it is. It would be funny if one day I opened it up and it's a $5 bill, but I don't know how I'd bet if I did that, but uh, all right, $100 to bet on tonight. Uh, I think I'm just gonna stick with the same method. Hockey has been very good to me all season. I'll do the same thing I did last night, 30-30, 20/20. I think I'm up like 14 units betting on uh the NHL this season. Very good. Uh, so I will take the $30 on the Canadian to beat the Jets, $30 on the Ducks to beat the Mammoth, and we'll go 20/20 for the two basketball plays. $20 on Clemson plus uh $10.5.20 dollars on Steven Adams over 8.5 rebounds. Uh, those are my best bets for tonight. This has been Play It Safe, presented by FanDuel. Stick around as I desperately try to hit a four-leg parlay and take the next step on the parlay peak. All right, it's time for me to give you my parlay of the day as we try to take finally the next step on the parlay peak. I've been stuck at the four-leg section of the parlay peak for too long. Let's win it so I can move on to the five-leg portion of the parlay peak. I'm running out of time. I'm supposed to complete this by the end of 2025. I only have what, 4 weeks left to complete the parlay. Peak, so we need that 4-leg parlay. Last night we fell short because my Maple Leafs somehow beat the Florida Panthers. I don't know what's going on. 2 straight wins, I think, for the Maple Leafs. Oh, what a world. Uh, not good enough for me to go to a Leafs game yet. I will not support the Leafs while they're playing this bad. It's a disaster. Uh, and of course they win the night that I need the Panthers to win. Uh, all right, 4-leg parlay today. I'm gonna try. Little bit, something a little bit different. I'm gonna go, uh, all player props for tonight. That's my strategy to change things up a little bit. Uh, uh, yes, correct, Castanza, because once again , if everything you do is wrong, the opposite must be right. Uh, so I've not done a player prop parlay, so that's what I'm gonna do tonight. Uh, 2 in the NHL and then 2 in the NBA. We're gonna start with. This means I need to write names. Not good. Uh, Ovechkin. Oh, I'm gonna just do OVV. Yeah, there we go. I can just do OV, uh, one plus points. Uh, the, uh, Capitals are taking on the San Jose Sharks. Uh, I could consider taking the Capitals. Capitals to win, but the second game of a back to back on a West Coast trip could be a little dangerous. So Ovechkin to get at least 1 point, a goal or assist, uh, minus 194 . Uh, then we have, uh, going back to the Ducks game, uh, I'm gonna take Connor Gautier. Three shots, 3 plus shots. The Ducks are actually top 3 in the uh in the NHL in shots per game, so I think they can get up enough shots for Gautier to go over that number against the Utah Mammoth. Uh, that is that, -192. Then we're gonna switch over to the NBA. We're gonna take, uh, the pride of Kitchener. Uh, Ontario, Jamal Murray, uh, Jay Murray, we're gonna get him 20+ points for the Denver Nuggets tonight, 20+ points. Uh, that comes in at -245, then we'll go Josh Hart of the New York Knicks. We need him to get 8 rebounds, 8 plus rebounds. And that comes in at -215, so a 4-leg player parlay, 2 in the NHL, 2 in the NBA. I like this quite a bit. Uh , odds a little bit shorter than normal, but I'm OK with that. At the end of the day. Every leg is uh uh longer than -250, plus, plus 375 for tonight is the four-leg parlay of the day, player prop parlay. If everything you do is wrong, the opposite must be right. Thank you for tuning in to today's episode of Making Moves with Mac presented by FanDuel. Best of luck to all of your bets tonight, and I will see you all tomorrow.