Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Oct. 28

The Timberwolves are favored at home on Wednesday night.

Minnesota Timberwolves small forward Jaden McDaniels is a great prop target on Oct. 28. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors are short-handed to open the 2026-27 season, but they picked up their first win on Monday against the Denver Nuggets behind a huge game from rookie forward Yaxel Lendeborg.

So, naturally, Lendeborg is questionable for Wednesday’s clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

He’s one of several Warriors on the injury report, as Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are all still out indefinitely. 

Minnesota has been one of the most exciting teams in the league to open the season, winning three of its first four games while showcasing an exciting uptempo offense led by Anthony Edwards and newcomer LaMelo Ball.

Unfortunately, it’ll be a while before we see that duo in action again. Edwards is set to have surgery on his knee that will sideline him for two months, dealing a massive blow to the Wolves’ NBA Finals odds in the process. 

The Wolves came up short in overtime on Monday against Cleveland, yet they still find themselves as favorites without their star guard on Wednesday night. 

Can Curry and Co. pull off another upset? 

Oddsmakers aren’t buying it, and I have a couple of predictions for this game with the Wolves looking to Ball and others to fill the void with Ant sidelined. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Warriors +4.5 (-115)
• Timberwolves -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Warriors: +142
• Timberwolves: -170

Total

• 227.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Warriors vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 28
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA League Pass, NBC Sports Bay Area, DAZN
• Warriors record: 1-3
• Timberwolves record: 3-1 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Yaxel Lendeborg – questionable
• Moses Moody – out
• Jimmy Butler III – out
• Kristaps Porzingis – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Donte DiVincenzo – out
• Anthony Edwards – out

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jaden McDaniels OVER 22.5 Points and Rebounds (-117)

Earlier today, I shared in our NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I love Jaden McDaniels to step up with Edwards sidelined: 

Anthony Edwards (knee) is out for the next two months, which means the Minnesota Timberwolves have to get more from Jaden McDaniels in the coming weeks.

McDaniels is certainly capable of taking a step forward on offense, and he showed that in the playoffs last season against the Denver Nuggets with Edward sidelined. The two-way wing is averaging 15.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game this season while shooting 59.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3. He may already deserve an expanded role on offense heading into tonight’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are just 28th in defensive rating over their first four games, making this a perfect spot for McDaniels to get going as one of the top options for the Wolves. Plus, he’s been great on the boards, grabbing six or more in each of his four games.

McDaniels is averaging 11.3 rebound chances per game, and now he’s taking on a Warriors team that lacks any real frontcourt presence with Kristaps Porzingis sideined. 

In his last 10 games without Edwards, McDaniels is averaging 18.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He should push those numbers – and potentially more – given his strong start to the 2026-27 season. 

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Minnesota is off to a strong start in the 2026-27 season, but I can’t lay the points with this team with Edwards out. LaMelo Ball isn’t playing a ton of minutes as the Wolves try to keep him healthy, and with Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) still injured, the Wolves have a severe lack of depth at guard. 

Golden State is off to a 1-3 start, so taking the Warriors as just 4.5-point underdogs also isn’t super enticing – especially with Lendeborg listed as questionable. 

So, I’m going to take the UNDER and rely on the Minnesota defense (No. 2 in defensive rating this season) to get the job done. The Warriors are a top-10 team in offensive rating and points per game, yet they’ve scored under 110 points twice. 

The UNDER has hit in three of the Timberwolves’ four games this season (they only went OVER in an overtime matchup vs. Cleveland), and now it’s down its top offensive player.

Even though the Warriors are 28th in the league in defensive rating this season, I’m taking the UNDER on Wednesday night. 

Pick: UNDER 227.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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