Wings vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Monday, Sept. 21

Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings have been one of the hottest teams in the WNBA, winning six games in a row to put them into a three-way tie in the standings with the New York Liberty and Washington Mystics at 26-16.

Dallas holds the No. 8 seed in the WNBA heading into Monday’s matchup with the Phoenix Mercury, who have been eliminated from playoff contention. Dallas won Saturday’s clash at home with the Mercury by five points, and it’s favored by 5.5 points on the road on Monday night.

The Wings likely need to win out to move up in the standings, and if the season ended today, they’d face the Minnesota Lynx in the first round of the playoffs.

Dallas is a top-seven team in net rating, and it’s already 2-0 against the Mercury this season.

Kelsey Plum remains out for Phoenix, which has nothing to play for with two games left in the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference battle on Monday night.

Wings vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Wings -5.5 (-112)
Mercury +5.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Wings: -218
Mercury: +180

Total

172.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Wings vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Monday, Sept. 21
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): USA Network, KFAA-TV, Merc+, Arizona Family of Sports Network
Wings record: 26-16
Mercury record: 15-27

Wings vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Wings Injury Report

Alanna Smith – out
Azzi Fudd – out

Mercury Injury Report

Kahleah Copper – probable
Kelsey Plum – out
Kara Dunn – probable

Wings vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

Paige Bueckers 18+ Points (-177)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Bueckers should have another big scoring game against Phoenix:

This season, Wings star Paige Bueckers is averaging 20.6 points per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3.

Bueckers has scored at least 18 points in 28 of her 40 games, including two huge games against Phoenix. The former UConn star had 31 points the first time these teams met, and she dropped 26 points in a win on Saturday night, shooting 10-for-19 from the field and 5-for-9 from 3.

The Mercury have nothing to play for since they’ve been eliminated from the postseason, and Bueckers should be able to get whatever she wants against a team that is 10th in the W in defensive rating this season.

Bueckers’ actual prop is set at 19.5 and heavily juiced to the UNDER, and I don’t mind laying this price since Bueckers has scored 18 or more points in 70 percent of her games this season.

With Azzi Fudd and Alanna Smith out, there is even more pressure on the star guard to deliver as a scorer with the Wings looking to climb out of the No. 8 spot in the standings.

Wings vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

The Wings picked up a five-point win at home over the Mercury on Friday, combining for 169 points in that matchup.

While that would have fallen short of the total for Monday’s game, there are a couple of interesting trends to follow with these teams this season. The OVER has hit in 13 of the Mercury’s 20 home games to date, and 10 of the Wings’ 19 road games in 2026.

Phoenix still is expected to have Kahleah Copper (probable) in the lineup tonight, and both teams reached 80 points in Saturday’s contest in Dallas.

The Wings (13th in pace) do love to slow games down, but they are allowing 91.0 points per game on the road this season, up six points from their season average.

With Dallas still sitting in the top six in the league in offensive rating, I think it’s possible both teams reach 90 points on Monday night.

Pick: OVER 172.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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