Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Breanna Stewart, PHX-Mystics, Valkyries-Sparks)

Playoff position is on the line in the WNBA on Sunday, as the regular season continues to wind towards a close.

There are six of the top eight teams in the league in action, including a rematch of this year’s WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final, as the Las Vegas Aces take on the New York Liberty for the final time in the regular season:

Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty
Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks

This is an intriguing four-game slate for many reasons, but the most important is who ends up in the No. 2 spot (Las Vegas of Golden State) and if either of those teams has a real shot at challenging Minnesota for the No. 1 spot in the league.

Plus, Dallas, Washington and New York are all jockeying for position from No. 6 to No. 8 in the standings with hopes of moving even higher. Both the Liberty (three wins in a row) and Mystics (six wins in a row) are trending in the right direction and are favored on Sunday.

Today is a little different in Peter’s Points, as I’ve already previewed all of these games with a player prop and a game prediction. So, I decided to pull my three favorite plays to make up today’s WNBA Best Bets!

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 79-65 (-0.72 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 254-229-2 (+2.18 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Breanna Stewart 8+ Rebounds (-180)
Washington Mystics Moneyline (-125) vs. Phoenix Mercury
Golden State Valkyries -6.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Breanna Stewart 8+ Rebounds (-180)

Let’s start with a prop! In today’s betting preview for the Aces vs. Liberty clash, I explained why I’m buying Breanna Stewart to continue her MVP-caliber 2026 season:

This season, Liberty star Breanna Stewart is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game, and I love this matchup for her on Sunday – especially if Wilson sits.

The Aces are just seventh in the W in rebound percentage and eighth in opponent rebounds per game, and that would likely take a hit if the reigning league MVP is out of the lineup.

Stewie had 11 rebounds the last time these teams played, and she’s picked up eight or more boards in nine of her last 11 matchups (including four in a row). Overall, she’s pulled down eight or more rebounds in 22 of her 31 regular-season appearances in 2026.

I’m expecting her to have a big game as New York aims to win a fourth matchup in a row.

Washington Mystics Moneyline (-125) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Mystics are on a six-game winning streak, and I shared in today’s betting preview why I believe they’re extremely undervalued at home against a Phoenix team that is a long shot to make the playoffs:

A six-game winning streak has helped the Mystics solidify themselves as a true playoff contender this season, and they’ve beaten some good teams (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Golden State and Dallas) during that stretch.

So, I expected them to be favored by more at home against a Phoenix team that has a minus-4.0 net rating this season and is nine games under .500. The Mercury have lost back-to-back games even with Kelsey Plum in the fold, and they’re an extreme long shot to make the playoffs in 2026.

Plus, over their last 10 games, the Mercury have a net rating of minus-7.9, which ranks 12th in the league.

Washington isn’t a great offensive team (14th in offensive rating), but it does rank third in defensive rating this season. Over its last 10 games, Washington is 8-2 with the fifth-best net rating in the WNBA.

The Mystics are 10-6 against the spread at home this season, and they’ve been rolling since the All-Star break.

I’ll gladly bet on them at this price on Sunday afternoon.

Golden State Valkyries -6.5 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Golden State has a chance to take a clear lead over Las Vegas for the No. 2 seed, and I’m buying it to win a fourth game in a row on Aug. 9:

Stylistically, this is a nightmare matchup for the Sparks, who have a lot less offensive firepower since trading away Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline.

Los Angeles is No. 1 in the league in pace and allows the most points per game in the WNBA, relying heavily on its offense to win games. Sure, the Sparks are fifth in the W in points per game, but they were held to just 58 points in their first meeting with Golden State.

The Valkyries are the best defensive team in the WNBA, ranking No. 1 in defensive rating, No. 1 in opponent points per game and tied for first in opponent field goal percentage. On top of that, Golden State loves to slow games down, playing at the slowest pace in the WNBA.

So, if the Valkyries control the Tempo, I can’t see this Los Angeles offense executing at a high enough level to win this game.

The Sparks are just 3-5 against the spread as home underdogs this season, and they were blown out by 20 in the first meeting between these teams. L.A. may be getting more love from the betting market after it upset Minnesota, but I’m not betting on the league’s No. 14 defense against a Golden State squad that has the strongest defensive identity in the WNBA.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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