Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Sky vs. Mercury)

Tuesday’s WNBA action is highlighted by the second meeting of the season between the Dallas Wings and New York Liberty – two teams that are 13-8 and hold the No. 4 (Dallas) and No. 5 (New York) seeds in the W this season.

New York actually has the best record in the Eastern Conference, even though it has spent a lot of the season with Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally out of the lineup. Dallas dominated the Liberty in New York earlier this season, and Paige Bueckers and Co. are set as road underdogs in the second game of this season's series.

While that matchup – which will be nationally televised on ESPN – is the biggest one of the night, there is also a clash between the surging Phoenix Mercury and struggling Chicago Sky to consider in the betting market.

Phoenix has won three games in a row after a very slow start to the campaign, and it is favored at home against a Sky team that has been decimated by injuries in 2026.

I have a few things that I’m on the lookout for in these games, including the play of Ionescu, who is turning a corner as of late after a slow start to 2026.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bet for each matchup on Tuesday, July 7.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 51-40 (+2.44 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 226-203-2 (+5.35 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 14.5 Points (-126)
Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-155) vs. Chicago Sky

Sabrina Ionescu OVER 14.5 Points (-126)

Ionescu is averaging just 10.3 points per game in nine regular-season games in 2026, but she’s turned things up as of late, scoring 26 points in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game against Las Vegas and 17 in a win over the Minnesota Lynx.

So, Ionescu turned in arguably her two best games of the season against the top two teams in the league.

I’m intrigued.

The star guard averaged 18.2 points on 15.1 shots per game in the 2025 season, and she’s taken 10 or more shots in five consecutive games for the Liberty. After dealing with ankle and back injuries early in the season, Ionescu played over 35 minutes against the Lynx, a sign that she’s back to her usual role.

Her first game of the season was a disaster against this Wings team – she shot 4-for-15 in a 15-point loss – but I am going to take Ionescu to clear this line on Tuesday.

She’s averaged over 17 points per game in all but one of her completed seasons, and I expect her shot to continue to come around as the season progresses. I think this line is a little too low, especially if Ionescu’s usage continues to rise.

Phoenix Mercury Moneyline (-155) vs. Chicago Sky

Phoenix already has a win over Chicago under its belt this season, winning by eight points at home back on May 15.

The Sky are one of the worst teams in the league this season, posting a minus-3.8 net rating while ranking 11th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. They have just three road wins in the 2026 campaign, and Chicago is just 9-11 against the spread.

Despite a really slow start, Phoenix has a net rating of minus-1.8, and it ranks in the top seven in the league in net, offensive and defensive rating over its last 10 games.

Kahleah Copper has also come on as of late, scoring 20 or more points in six of her last seven games. The star guard has provided a major boost to an offense that is just 11th overall in points per game this season.

The Sky have struggled since Rickea Jackson (knee) was ruled out for the season, and they’ve posted a minus-7.0 net rating on the road. I think Phoenix can extend its winning streak to four on Tuesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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