Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, July 9

The Tampa Bay Rays have opened up a five-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East, and they are favored to extend that lead in Thursday afternoon’s series finale between these squads.

New York took the series opener on Monday night, but it has scored just four runs in two games since, dropping to 2-8 in its last 10 games. New York is 5-15 over its last 20 games, posting some extremely shaky offensive numbers during that stretch.

Aaron Boone’s team is dead last in the league in batting average, OPS and runs scored over the last 15 days, and it has a tough matchup against Drew Rasmussen (2.78 ERA) on Thursday.

Rasmussen has held New York scoreless in two outings this season, and he’s led the Rays to a 9-8 record in 17 appearances. The Yankees are expected to go with an opener in this game, as Paul Blackburn is currently slated to start.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thursday’s series finale.

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Yankees +1.5 (-163)
Rays -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline

Yankees: +129
Rays: -156

Total

7.5 (Over -112/Under -107)

Yankees vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

Yankees: Paul Blackburn (2-1, 2.22 ERA)
Rays: Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA)

Yankees vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 9
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): YES Network, Rays.TV
Yankees record: 50-42
Rays record: 54-36

Yankees vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Drew Rasmussen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-106)

The Yankees only have six hits off of Rasmussen in two games against him this season, and the Rays right-hander has allowed just 70 hits in 97.0 innings of work.

Rasmussen has 10 outings with four or fewer hits allowed, and he should make quick work of a slumping New York lineup that is dead last in batting average over the last 15 days.

Here’s how bad New York’s entire team has been slumping as of late:

Averages over their last 10 games:
1. Cody Bellinger 4-39 (.103)
2. Ben Rice 8-37 (.216)
3. Jasson Dominguez 8-35 (.229)
4. Paul Goldschmidt 0-34 (.000)
5. Anthony Volpe 5-28 (.179)
6. Jose Caballero 6-33 (.182)
7. Austin Wells 1-24 (.042)
8. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 5-28 (.179)
9. Ryan…
— Bronx Hawk (@Yankee_Hawk) July 9, 2026

This is a great matchup for Rasmussen, who enters this start with an impressive 0.897 WHIP in 2026.

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Can the Yankees finally get back on track this afternoon? Oddsmakers have them set as major underdogs, as they’ve struggled against Rasmussen in 2026. I shared my pick for this game in today’s edition of Walk-Off Wagers – SI Betting’s daily MLB best bets column:

The Yankees are just 5-15 in their last 20 games and now five games back of Tampa Bay in the American League.

New York won the series opener against Tampa Bay 5-1, but it has scored just four runs in two games since, dropping to just five games over .500 on the road.

Drew Rasmussen is on the mound for Tampa Bay, and he’s dominated New York this season, tossing 13.0 innings of scoreless ball in two starts. The Rays’ right-hander has 2.78 ERA in 2026, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 17 starts.

New York’s offense is dead last in runs scored, batting average and OPS over the last 10 days while the Rays are in the top-10 in the league in all three of those categories. I think Tampa Bay will cruise to a win with Rasmussen on the hill.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-156 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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