Miami's Sheldon McClellan leads college hoops' projected top transfers

3:39 | College Basketball
College Basketball Season Preview: Top transfers
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Friday October 17th, 2014

This week on SI.com, we've been releasing data from a college basketball statistical projection system developed by economist Dan Hanner with assistance from SI's Luke Winn. Part I featured our projected top 100 scorers, top 20 rebounders and top 20 in assists, and it contains a more in-depth description of the statistical model. Part II featured the projected top 50 freshman scorers, and part III was the top 50 breakout scorers. Today, we unveil our forecast of the top 100 transfer scorers according to raw points per game.

The most difficult players to project in college basketball are transfers. Recruiting rankings help us do a decent job of identifying high-impact freshmen, and for returning players, shot volume, efficiency, rebounding rates and assist rates are all correlated fairly highly over time. But transfers between Division I teams often perform quite differently as a result of switching coaches, teammates and offensive systems. We've adjusted their projections for changes in competition level, and plugged them into their new rotations, but don't be surprised if some players on this list significantly out- or under-perform these stats due to changes in environment.

What we're certain of is that there are a lot of important transfers in 2014-15, including players who will have big roles on potentially ranked teams. Dan Hanner ran projections on every transfer with D-I experience from the top 11 conferences -- the football power five plus the Atlantic 10, Big East, AAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West and West Coast -- and it wasn't difficult to find 100 potential rotation players.

Rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. TEam

PPG

Prev. PPG

ORTG

Poss. (%)

1

Sheldon McClellan

Jr.

SF

Miami (Fla.) / Texas

15.1

13.5

114

24

2

Jalen Jones

Sr.

SF

Texas A&M / SMU

13.9

14.0

109

24

3

Matt Carlino

Sr.

PG

Marquette BYU

13.5

13.7

106

23

4

Trevor Lacey

Jr.

SG

N.C. State / Alabama

13.1

11.3

109

23

5

Katin Reinhardt

So.

SG

USC UNLV

12.9

10.1

105

22

6

Julien Lewis

Jr.

SG

Fresno State

12.6

11.2

110

22

7

Jordan Price

So.

SG

La Salle Auburn

12.5

5.4

105

23

8

Bryce Dejean-Jones

Sr.

SG

Iowa State

12.4

13.6

106

23

9

Kyle Wiltjer

Jr.

PF

Gonzaga Kentucky

12.3

10.2

122

22

10

Angel Rodriguez

Jr.

PG

Miami (Fla.) / Kansas Sate

12.2

10.9

112

23

Now at Miami, Sheldon McClellan averaged 12.4 points per game in two seasons at Texas.
David E. Klutho/Sports Illustrated

Sheldon McClellan (1) played his first two seasons at Texas, where he was quietly one of the country's most efficient freshman scorers in 2011-12. The model projects him to regain that form at Miami, which lost its primary shot-taker from last season, Rion Brown, and needs McClellan and new point guard Angel Rodriguez (10) to carry a significant load. Marquette should benefit greatly from Matt Carlino's graduate transfer from BYU; the Golden Eagles got next-to-no offense out of the point-guard spot in '13-14, and will look to Carlino (3) and Deonte Burton to emerge as double-digit scorers.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

11

Antoine Mason

Sr.

SG

Auburn / Niagara

11.9

25.6

110

22

12

Josh Gray

Jr.

PG

LSU Texas Tech

11.8

9.3

102

24

13

Terry Whisnant

Jr.

SG

East Carolina Florida State

11.5

5.2

120

19

14

Stefan Moody

Jr.

PG

Ole Miss Florida Atlantic

11.4

15.7

106

24

15

Kedren Johnson

Jr.

PG

Memphis Vanderbilt

11.3

13.5

106

24

16

Savon Goodman

Jr.

SF

Arizona State

11.3

3.6

102

25

17

Byron Wesley

Sr.

SF

Gonzaga / USC

11.0

17.8

113

22

18

Trey Zeigler

Sr.

SG

TCU

11.0

4.4

107

23

19

Anthony Hickey

Sr.

PG

Oklahoma State

10.8

8.4

101

21

20

Joe Coleman

Jr.

SG

Saint Mary's Minnesota

10.5

8.7

112

21

Antoine Mason (11) was the nation's second-leading scorer -- behind only Doug McDermott -- last season at Niagara, putting up 25.6 points per game. While the model considers Mason a valuable asset for Auburn, it forecasts a steep dropoff in scoring due to him sharing shots with fellow guards K.T. Harrell and Tahj Shamsid-Deen, and facing tougher defenses in the SEC. Byron Wesley (17) was a 17.8 points-per-game scorer at USC, but figures to be more of a role player in a balanced Gonzaga offense that could have four double-digit scorers.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. PPG

ORTG

Poss. (%)

21

Jesse Morgan

Sr.

SG

Temple Massachusetts

10.2

13.4

109

21

22

Cody Doolin

Sr.

PG

UNLV / San Francisco

10.1

13.0

108

19

23

Jabarie Hinds

Jr.

PG

Massachusetts / West Virginia

10.1

7.4

97

24

24

Rodney Purvis

So.

SG

Connecticut North Carolina State

9.9

8.3

106

22

25

Ahmad Starks

Sr.

PG

Illinois Oregon State

9.8

10.4

110

19

26

Aaron Bright

Sr.

PG

Saint Mary's / Stanford

9.8

5.9

107

19

27

Aaron Brown

Jr.

SF

Saint Joseph's

9.7

1.2

103

21

28

Jaylen Bond

Jr.

PF

Temple / Texas

9.6

2.8

111

19%

29

Aaron Cosby

Jr.

SG

Illinois / Seton Hall

9.6

12.6

109

22

30

Keith Hornsby

Jr.

SG

LSU / UNC Asheville

9.2

15.0

109

20

Illinois is adding two quality transfers in Ahmad Starks (25) and Aaron Cosby (29); for a team that had one of the lowest ratios of assisted field goals last season (just 44.0 percent), Starks' point-guard skills should help. Rodney Purvis (24), a former McDonald's All-American who left N.C. State for UConn, should step in and be an effective complementary scorer to Ryan Boatright.

rank

name

class

pos.

New Team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ORTG

poss. (%)

31

Achraf Yacoubou

Jr.

SG

Saint Louis Villanova

9.1

2.9

95

22

32

Stanton Kidd

Sr.

PF

Colorado State Central

9.0

14.5

117

18%

33

Bryn Forbes

Jr.

SG

Michigan State Cleveland State

8.9

15.6

105

21

34

Terence Smith

Sr.

SG

Ole Miss / Tennessee Martin

8.9

14.6

109

20

35

Jonathan Holton

Jr.

SF

West Virginia / Rhode Island

8.9

10.2

100

21%

36

Dantiel Daniels

Jr.

PF

Colorado State / Southern Illinois

8.8

7.7

117

18%

37

Sheldon Jeter

So.

SF

Pittsburgh

8.7

5.5

104

22

38

Cleon Roberts

So.

SG

La Salle / Georgia Southern

8.7

8.7

104

20

39

Ricky Tarrant

Jr.

PG

Alabama / Tulan

8.7

15.7

104

22

40

T.J. Cline

So.

PF

Richmond

8.7

7.9

113

19

Colorado State could have four D-I transfers in its '14-15 rotation, and our model places them all in the top 100: Stanton Kidd (32), Dantiel Daniels (36), Antwan Scott (71) and John Gillon (80). Kidd is a little-known forward from N.C. Central who appears to be a real asset; he was the most efficient scorer (and best rebounder) on a team that went 15-1 in the MEAC two seasons ago. Terence Smith (34) could be a sleeper at Ole Miss; he made 44.7 percent of his threes at Tennessee-Martin last season and rarely turned the ball over.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

41

Julian Royal

Jr.

PF

George Mason Georgia Tech

8.6

1.7

104

22

42

Luke Fischer

So.

C

Marquette / Indiana

8.6

2.8

106

19

43

Remy Abell

Jr.

SG

Xavier

8.5

4.0

116

19

44

Bishop Daniels

Jr.

SG

Rutgers

8.5

5.0

98

19

45

Brandon Perry

Jr.

PF

San Diego

8.4

6.3

108

21

46

Keith Shamburger

Sr.

PG

Missouri Hawaii

8.4

9.3

101

22

47

K.C. Ross-Miller

Sr.

PG

Auburn / New Mexico State

8.4

8.3

112

18

48

Jordan Baker

Jr.

SG

San Jose State Pepperdine

8.3

11.4

101

22

49

Justin Edwards

Jr.

SF

Kansas Sate / Maine

8.3

16.8

107

21

50

Richaud Pack

Sr.

PG

Maryland North Carolina

8.3

17.0

109

20

Justin Edwards (49) and Richaud Pack (50) have moved up to the big-time after former lives as volume scorers on bad, small-conference teams. They could out-perform the model's expectations if they earn enough playing time at Kansas State and Maryland, respectively. Luke Fischer (42) figures to become Marquette's starting center as soon as he's eligible to play in mid-December. The Indiana transfer is 6-11 and the Golden Eagles have no other players taller than 6-7.

[pagebreak]

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

51

Justin Martin

Sr.

SF

SMU / Xavier

8.2

11.7

108

19

52

Robert Upshaw

So.

C

Washington

8.2

4.1

98

22

53

Jon Octeus

Sr.

PG

Purdue

8.2

13.4

107

19

54

Darion Clark

So.

PF

USC / Charlotte

8.1

6.2

99

23

55

Quevyn Winters

Jr.

SF

Washington / Duquesne

8.0

9.6

102

21

56

Darius Leonard

Sr.

PF

Wake Forest Campbell

8.0

10.2

106

19

57

Myke Henry

Jr.

SF

DePaul

7.8

3.2

106

22

58

Anthony Lee

Sr.

PF

Ohio State

7.6

13.6

110

21

59

Stephen Hurt

Jr.

C

Kansas State / Lipscomb

7.6

11.5

107

20

60

Abdel Nader

Jr.

PF

Iowa State / Northern Illinois

7.6

13.1

97

26

Robert Upshaw (52) should be a moderate-level scorer at Washington, but the 7-footer's main value will be as a shot-blocker and rim protector for a team that had one of the Pac-12's worst defenses last season. Nader (60) is one of three transfers -- along with Bryce Dejean-Jones (8) and Jameel McKay -- who'll help Iowa State contend for the Big 12 title.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

61

Christophe Varidel

Sr.

SG

Alabama / Florida Gulf Coast

7.5

6.1

106

20

62

Jamal Aytes

So.

PF

BYU / UNLV

7.5

2.8

103

21

63

Jeremiah Kreisberg

Sr.

PF

Northwestern Yale

7.5

5.6

102

21

64

Devonta Pollard

Jr.

PF

Houston

7.2

3.9

101

21

65

Dominic Woodson

So.

PF

Tennessee / Memphis

7.1

2.5

97

24

66

Mike Shaw

Jr.

PF

Bradley

7.1

0.9

99

22

67

Paul Jesperson

Jr.

SG

Northern Iowa / Virginia

7.1

4.7

102

17

68

Michael Kessens

So.

PF

Alabama / Longwood

7.1

13.7

99

21

69

Charles Mitchell

Jr.

PF

Georgia Tech / Maryland

7.0

6.5

97

22

70

Alex Murphy

Jr.

SF

Florida / Duke

7.0

1.0

103

19

Dominic Woodson (65) was a highly ranked prospect who didn't pan out at Memphis, but if he gets in shape at Tennessee, he could be an asset for a team that desperately needs frontcourt help. Former Duke forward Alex Murphy (70) is eligible in December at Florida, and he could outperform the model's projections if he beats out talented freshman Devin Robinson for minutes on the wing.

Rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

Poss. (%)

71

Antwan Scott

Sr.

PG

Colorado State / Grambling State

7.0

15.7

110

18

72

Robert Sampson

Sr.

PF

Georgia Tech / East Carolina

6.9

9.1

102

20

73

Dimitri Batten

Sr.

SG

Boston College Old Dominion

6.8

11.0

95

24

74

Demarco Cox

Sr.

C

Georgia Tech / Ole Miss

6.8

4.2

102

19

75

Desmond Simmons

Sr.

PF

Saint Mary's / Washington

6.8

5.2

110

18

76

Ryan Bass

Sr.

PG

Dayton Oakland

6.6

9.3

106

21

77

Ibby Djimde

Jr.

PF

Southern Illinois / Illinois

6.6

0.2

96

19%

78

Deuce Bello

Jr.

SF

Missouri / Baylor

6.5

2.4

96

22

79

Ian Chiles

Sr.

PG

Tennessee / IUPUI

6.5

15.8

98

23

80

John Gillon

So.

PG

Colorado State / Ark.-Little Rock

6.4

10.6

115

18

Dimitri Batten (73) is projected to give Olivier Hanlan some scoring assistance at Boston College, but will Batten actually help the Eagles' offense? He was an aggressive but inefficient scorer at Old Dominion last season, making just 28.7 percent of his threes and turning the ball over at a fairly high rate for a shooter. Georgia Tech lost its entire front line from last season, and transfers Robert Sampson (72) and Demarco Cox (74) are its ho-hum replacements.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

81

Chase Fischer

Jr.

SG

BYU / Wake Forest

6.4

4.5

107

22

82

Calvin Godfrey

Sr.

PF

Memphis / Southern

6.4

13.1

104

19

83

Eric Weary

Jr.

SG

Houston / New Mexico State

6.3

1.1

101

19

84

Keaton Miles

Jr.

PF

Arkansas

6.0

2.7

112

17

85

Frank Rogers

Jr.

PF

San Jose State / San Francisco

6.0

1.8

99

18

86

Junior Lomomba

So.

SG

Providence

5.9

5.9

100

23

87

Aaron Brown

Sr.

SF

Boston College / Southern Miss

5.8

9.9

105

19

88

Derrell Robertson

Jr.

PF

San Francisco / DePaul

5.6

1.9

106

17

89

Farad Cobb

Jr.

PG

Cincinnati Chattanooga

5.5

5.7

99

21

90

Jon Horford

Sr.

PF

Florida / Michigan

5.2

3.8

115

18

Jon Horford (90) might have played a bigger senior-year role had he stayed at Michigan, which lost Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary from its front line. As a graduate transfer at Florida, Horford figures to get backup minutes behind Chris Walker and Dorian Finney-Smith and add value to the Gators as a rebounder rather than a scorer.

rank

name

class

pos.

new team / prev. team

ppg

prev. ppg

ortg

poss. (%)

91

Nick Zeisloft

Jr.

SG

Indiana / Illinois State

5.2

6.9

110

15

92

Cavon Baker

Jr.

PG

Houston / Florida

5.0

2.6

101

19

93

Angelo Choi

Jr.

PF

San Diego State Arizona

4.9

1.9

107

20

94

M.J. Rhett

Sr.

PF

Ole Miss / Tennessee St.

4.7

10.9

104

19

95

Moses Ayegba

Sr.

PF

Nebraska Georgetown

4.6

1.9

99

17

96

Dwight Tarwater

Sr.

SF

California Cornell

4.6

7.1

104

18

97

Ricky Kreklow

Sr.

SF

Creighton

4.5

5.5

104

18

98

Montray Clemons

Jr.

PF

San Francisco / DePaul

4.1

1.3

99

21

99

Devin Coleman

Jr.

SG

Temple / Clemson

3.8

5.4

101

21

100

Joe Thomas

Sr.

PF

Miami / Niagara

3.8

3.4

99

16

Most of the players in this bracket figure to be bit players at best, and some may not crack rotations at all. Cal transfer Ricky Kreklow (97) is one who might outperform projections if Creighton opts to use him as an undersized (6-6) four in a spread-out offense -- the role that Ethan Wragge often played for the Bluejays last season.

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