Men’s Basketball State of the Bubble: Stock Up on Georgia, Stock Down on UCLA

Welcome to State of the Bubble, a weekly column breaking down the March résumés of 16 men’s college basketball teams that find themselves on the cusp of the NCAA tournament.

This column will run each Thursday throughout the rest of the season, utilizing the bubble categories defined by Kevin Sweeney’s weekly bracket watch.

Let’s dive into the outlook of each of the bubble teams heading into the penultimate weekend of February. The games only get bigger from here.

*NCAA NET Rankings updated through games played on Feb. 18.

Last Four Byes

Texas A&M Aggies: 18–8 (8–5 SEC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 43
Quad 1 Record: 3–5
Quad 2 Record: 4–3
Quad 3 Record: 3–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 80–77 vs. Ole Miss (2/18)
Next Game: at Oklahoma (2/21)

The Aggies snapped a four-game losing streak on Wednesday night with a three-point victory against Ole Miss. The recent slide had the Aggies entering bubble territory in what has been an impressive first season under the direction of coach Bucky McMillian.

A&M could not afford a Quad 3 loss against Ole Miss from an optics standpoint, so a narrow escape on their home floor will certainly help morale. Four Quad 1 games and one Quad 2 game remain for a team that already has seven wins in the top two quads to its name.

USC Trojans: 18–8 (7–8 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 52
Quad 1 Record: 1–6
Quad 2 Record: 8–1
Quad 3 Record: 5–1
Quad 4 Record: 3–0
Last Game: Lost 101–65 vs. No. 10 Illinois (2/18)
Next Game: vs. Oregon (2/21)

USC got smoked at home against No. 10 Illinois on Wednesday, a totally non-competitive loss for the Trojans. USC remains in search of a second Quad 1 win, but eight Quad 2 wins and only one loss in the bottom two quadrants are boosting their résumé significantly. A Quad 3 game against Oregon awaits this weekend, followed by three straight Quad 1 tilts and a Quad 2 home game against UCLA await the Trojans to close out the season and strengthen their tournament hopes.

Saint Mary’s Gaels: 24–4 (13–2 WCC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 27
Quad 1 Record: 0–3
Quad 2 Record: 6–1
Quad 3 Record: 10–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Won 72–70 at Seattle (2/18)
Next Game: at Washington State (2/21)

Another road Quad 2 win is on the résumé for Saint Mary’s after a narrow escape on the road at Seattle on Wednesday night. It’s another quality victory for the Gaels in a WCC that doesn’t have many of those types of opportunities. Saint Mary’s still has contests against Santa Clara and Gonzaga left on the schedule, but at this point, beating Washington State this weekend will prove most important to the program’s tournament hopes.

Georgia Bulldogs: 18–8 (6–7 SEC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 39
Quad 1 Record: 4–6
Quad 2 Record: 5–1
Quad 3 Record: 0–1
Quad 4 Record: 9–0
Last Game: Won 86–78 at Kentucky (2/17)
Next Game: vs. Texas (2/21)

Georgia picked up a Quad 1 win against Kentucky earlier this week, Georgia’s fourth such victory. The Bulldogs have nine wins between Q1 and Q2, and only one Q3 loss against Ole Miss in overtime at the beginning of SEC play. Two Quad 1 games, two Quad 2 games and one Quad 3 game against South Carolina remain. Barring a loss to the Gamecocks and a losing record in the four remaining contests, the Bulldogs should be safely in the field.

Last Four In

UCLA Bruins: 17–9 (9–6 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 41
Quad 1 Record: 2–7
Quad 2 Record: 4–2
Quad 3 Record: 4–0
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Lost 82–59 at No. 15 Michigan State (2/17)
Next Game: vs. No. 10 Illinois (2/21)

Mick Cronin is getting tired of living on the bubble. The Bruins were smoked by Michigan State this week in a game that will be remembered more for the antics of Cronin than what happened on the floor. The UCLA coach sent big man Steven Jamerson II to the locker room after a flagrant foul and then spent his postgame press conference ridiculing a reporter for a question about Michigan State’s student section.

Three Q1 games and two Q2 games remain. A winning record across the remaining five in a tough Big Ten should squeak UCLA into the field as an at-large team.

San Diego State Aztecs: 18–7 (12–3 Mountain West)

NCAA NET Ranking: 44
Quad 1 Record: 1–5
Quad 2 Record: 5–1
Quad 3 Record: 5–1
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Lost 73–63 vs. Grand Canyon (2/17)
Next Game: at Colorado State (2/21)

A 10-point home loss to Grand Canyon this week was another blemish on the tournament résumé for San Diego State, which would have improved to 6–1 in Quad 2 with the win. A Quad 2 road game at Colorado State awaits the Aztecs this weekend, followed by three consecutive Quad 1 contests against Utah State, New Mexico and Boise State. Still time left for the Aztecs to secure a bid.

Santa Clara Broncos: 22–6 (13–2 WCC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 Record: 1–4
Quad 2 Record: 6–1
Quad 3 Record: 9–0
Quad 4 Record: 5–1
Last Game: Lost 94–86 vs. No. 12 Gonzaga (2/14)
Next Game: Away at San Francisco (2/21)

Santa Clara would be a near-surefire at-large team if not for a neutral site Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago earlier this season. In a WCC that lacks quality opponents outside Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, the Broncos surely would have benefited from a home win against the Bulldogs last Saturday.

There is a Q1 game remaining against the Gaels on Feb. 25. A win there would all but lock up a tournament bid for the Broncos.

TCU Horned Frogs: 16–10 (6–7 Big 12)

NCAA NET Ranking: 47
Quad 1 Record: 4–7
Quad 2 Record: 2–1
Quad 3 Record: 3–1
Quad 4 Record: 7–1
Last Game: Lost 82–71 at UCF (2/17)
Next Game: vs. West Virginia (2/21)

TCU squandered a road Quad 1 opportunity earlier this week with a loss to UCF, as the Horned Frogs continue to try to offset a Q3 loss to Notre Dame and a Q4 loss to New Orleans. Four Quad 2 games and one Quad 1 game against Texas Tech remain, with the contest against the Red Raiders looking much more winnable after the season-ending injury to Texas Tech All-American JT Toppin.

First Four Out

Missouri Tigers: 18–8 (8–5 SEC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 59
Quad 1 Record: 4–4
Quad 2 Record: 3–4
Quad 3 Record: 3–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 81–80 vs. No. 19 Vanderbilt (2/18)
Next Game: at No. 20 Arkansas

Missouri blew a big lead and nearly lost on a halfcourt shot at the buzzer against No. 19 Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, but instead the Tigers escaped with a fifth Quad 1 win that will go a long way towards securing the program’s NCAA tournament hopes. There’s plenty of chances left to further pad the résumé with four Quad 1 games and one Quad 2 game remaining on the SEC schedule down the stretch, but this looks like a tournament team.

New Mexico Lobos: 20–6 (11–4 Mountain West)

NCAA NET Ranking: 42
Quad 1 Record: 2–4
Quad 2 Record: 6–1
Quad 3 Record: 3–1
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 98–61 vs. Air Force (2/17)
Next Game: at Fresno State (2/21)

New Mexico smoked one of the worst teams in college basketball earlier this week, dispatching Air Force 98–61 in a Quad 4 victory. That game was never going to help New Mexico’s bubble case, but certainly would have all but ended their tournament hopes with a loss. The Lobos résumé would certainly benefit from a 2–1 finish against Nevada (Q1), San Diego State (Q2) and Utah State (Q1). That is contingent on New Mexico also winning both remaining Quad 3 games against Fresno State and Colorado State.

VCU Rams: 21–6 (12–2 Atlantic 10)

NCAA NET Ranking: 45
Quad 1 Record: 0–4
Quad 2 Record: 5–2
Quad 3 Record: 7–0
Quad 4 Record: 9–0
Last Game: Won 89–75 vs. George Washington (2/17)
Next Game: at No. 20 Saint Louis (2/20)

VCU has four games left, one in each quad. The Rams have their biggest remaining résumé-booster on Friday night against Saint Louis in a road Quad 1 contest. It’s an opportunity, but it’ll be hard against the favorite to win the league.

The Rams have games remaining at home against Fordham and George Mason and away at Dayton. The Dayton contest is a Quad 2 game, while Fordham is a Quad 4 tilt and Mason is Quad 3. VCU needs to go at least 3–1 with a split of Saint Louis and Dayton to remain on the bubble. A 4–0 stretch would have everybody taking the Rams’ at-large hopes a bit more seriously.

Of course, VCU could just go win the A-10 tournament and put an end to all of this bubble madness.

Ohio State Buckeyes: 17–9 (9–6 Big Ten)

NCAA NET Ranking: 38
Quad 1 Record: 0–8
Quad 2 Record: 6–1
Quad 3 Record: 5–0
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Won 86–69 vs. No. 24 Wisconsin (2/17)
Next Game: at No. 15 Michigan State (2/22)

Ohio State missed a golden Q1 neutral site opportunity on Saturday against Virginia, a narrow 70–66 loss in a competitive game from start-to-finish. The Buckeyes did bounce back and notch another Q2 win earlier this week at home against Wisconsin. While the Buckeyes’ NET record still features a winless mark in Q1, Ohio State’s tournament hopes are pointing up after the Wisconsin win. Ohio State has the look of a tournament team, but a 4–1 closing stretch in its five remaining games against Q1 and Q2 would do wonders for the program’s March outlook, especially if two of the wins come in remaining Quad 1 opportunities against Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue.

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech Hokies: 17–10 (6–8 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 56
Quad 1 Record: 3–8
Quad 2 Record: 4–1
Quad 3 Record: 3–1
Quad 4 Record: 7–0
Last Game: Lost 67–66 at Miami (2/17)
Next Game: vs. Wake Forest (2/21)

In the last iteration of this column, Virginia Tech had significantly strengthened its NCAA tournament hopes with a 10-point Quad 1 victory on the road at Clemson. Instead of carrying that momentum forward into a weekend home tilt against Florida State, the Hokies were blown out on their home floor by the Seminoles, marking Tech’s first Quad 3 loss of the season in a game in which they allowed the visitors to shoot 62% from the floor. It’s one step forward and two steps back for the Hokies, who blew a late road lead at Miami earlier this week that would have been another Quad 1 win to offset the Florida State loss.

Tech’s tournament hopes are fading fast. Games remain against Wake Forest (Q2) and Boston College (Q3) at home, as well as North Carolina (Q1) and Virginia (Q1) on the road. Anything short of 3–1 with a split win-loss in the Quad 1 games should mark the end of the Hokies’ at-large NCAA tournament hopes.

West Virginia Mountaineers: 16–10 (7–6 Big 12)

NCAA NET Ranking: 54
Quad 1 Record: 4–6
Quad 2 Record: 2–3
Quad 3 Record: 2–1
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Lost 61–56 vs. Utah (2/18)
Next Game: at TCU (2/21)

West Virginia’s tournament hopes took a big hit on Wednesday night, as the Mountaineers lost 61–56 on their home floor against Utah in a Quad 3 game. It marked the first Quad 3 blemish of the season for West Virginia, which finishes the season with three Quad 1 games and two Quad two contests. There’s still an opportunity for the Mountaineers to make a run at an at-large bid, but it’s getting late early … so to speak.

Cal Golden Bears: 18–8 (6–7 ACC)

NCAA NET Ranking: 61
Quad 1 Record: 4–5
Quad 2 Record: 0–3
Quad 3 Record: 5–0
Quad 4 Record: 8–0
Last Game: Won 86–75 at Boston College (2/14)
Next Game: vs. Stanford (2/21)

Cal did what it was supposed to do against one of the worst teams in the ACC, beating Boston College by 11 last weekend on the road in a Quad 3 game. Cal’s tournament résumé hinges on a perfect record in the bottom two Quads and four wins in Quad 1. The Golden Bears have three games remaining in the top two quads, with home games against Stanford (Q2) and SMU (Q2) and a road game at Wake Forest. A 3–0 stretch is not impossible here, but the Golden Bears will need to also beat two Quad 3 foes in Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech.

An undefeated stretch in the final five could land the Golden Bears in the field. If it’s 4–1 or worse, show us the losses and that’ll dictate what is needed in the conference tournament to feel confident in an at-large berth.

Seton Hall Pirates: 18–9 (8–8 Big East)

NCAA NET Ranking: 50
Quad 1 Record: 1–5
Quad 2 Record: 5–2
Quad 3 Record: 6–2
Quad 4 Record: 6–0
Last Game: Lost 69–57 vs. DePaul (2/18)
Next Game: vs. Georgetown (2/21)

A second Quad 3 loss at home this week against an up-and-coming DePaul squad was certainly not what the doctor ordered for a Seton Hall club fighting an uphill battle to make the NCAA tournament. Seton Hall now has two losses in Quad 3, and only one win in Quad 1. Even with the five Quad 2 wins, this is not a résumé of a tournament team right now. Saturday’s home game against Georgetown is a must-win. A loss there will likely end the Pirates’ at-large hopes.