Bowl Projections: Week 13's results shake up postseason picture

2:13 | College Football
Don't expect Ohio State to be left out of College Football Playoff
Tuesday November 29th, 2016

While the College Football Playoff drama may still have to play out this week in conference championship games, Week 13 brought the down-to-wire drama for bowl eligibility, including some massive blows inflicted by rivals.

Arizona stunned Arizona State for just its third win of the season and kept the Sun Devils from going bowling. Vanderbilt, which would have likely made a bowl with five wins due to its high Academic Progress Rate, sealed the deal with an upset of Tennessee.

But the biggest strike of all came in the Egg Bowl. A rivalry that in recent years often had Sugar Bowl and other major postseason implications was reduced to a death match with only one bowl berth available. Mississippi State’s 55–20 victory not only denied Ole Miss a sixth win, but it also bumped the Bulldogs’ win total up to five, enough for their APR to get them into a bowl game.

See, Nick Saban, we don’t only talk about the playoff.

• Coaches who need to improve next season to save their jobs

Before we get to the full projections, a reminder about how the college football bowl selection works. The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

 

New Year's Six bowls

Bowl

Date

Location

Matchup

Pick

Peach (semifinal)

Dec. 31

Atlanta

TBD vs. TBD

Alabama vs. Washington

Fiesta (semifinal)

Dec. 31

Glendale, Ariz.

TBD vs. TBD

Ohio State vs. Clemson

Orange

Dec. 30

Miami

ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND

Louisville vs. Michigan

Cotton

Jan. 2

Arlington, Texas

TBD vs. TBD

Western Michigan vs. Penn State

Rose

Jan. 2

Pasadena, Calif.

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Wisconsin vs. USC

Sugar

Jan. 2

New Orleans

SEC vs. Big 12

Auburn vs. Oklahoma

College Football
Michigan loss opens spot in top four of Power Rankings after Week 13

bowl

date

location

matchup

pick

New Mexico

Dec. 17

Albuquerque, N.M.

C-USA vs. MW

UTSA vs. New Mexico

Las Vegas

Dec. 17

Las Vegas

MW vs. Pac-12

San Diego State vs. Mississippi State*

Camellia

Dec. 17

Montgomery, Ala.

MAC vs. Sun Belt

Miami (OH) vs. Arkansas State

Cure

Dec. 17

Orlando, Fla.

AAC vs. Sun Belt

UCF vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

New Orleans

Dec. 17

New Orleans

Sun Belt vs. C-USA

Appalachian State vs. Middle Tennessee

Miami Beach

Dec. 19

Miami

AAC vs. MAC

Tulsa vs. Central Michigan

Boca Raton

Dec. 20

Boca Raton, Fla.

AAC vs. C-USA

Memphis vs. Louisiana Tech

Poinsettia

Dec. 21

San Diego

BYU vs. MW

BYU vs. Wyoming

Famous Idaho Potato

Dec. 22

Boise, Idaho

MAC vs. MW

Ohio vs. Boise State

Bahamas

Dec. 23

Nassau, Bahamas

C-USA vs. AAC/MAC

Old Dominion vs. Eastern Michigan

Armed Forces

Dec. 23

Fort Worth, Texas

Big 12 vs. Navy

North Texas* vs. Navy

Dollar General

Dec. 23

Mobile, Ala.

MAC vs. Sun Belt

Toledo vs. Troy

Hawaii

Dec. 24

Honolulu

C-USA vs. MW

Southern Miss vs. Hawaii

St. Petersburg

Dec. 26

St. Petersburg, Fla.

ACC vs. AAC

South Alabama* vs. Houston

Quick Lane

Dec. 26

Detroit

ACC vs. Big Ten

Boston College vs. Maryland

Independence

Dec. 26

Shreveport, La.

ACC vs. SEC

NC State vs. Vanderbilt

Heart of Dallas

Dec. 27

Dallas

Big Ten vs. C-USA

Army* vs. Western Kentucky

Military

Dec. 27

Annapolis, Md.

ACC vs. AAC

Wake Forest vs. Temple

Holiday

Dec. 27

San Diego

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Iowa vs. Washington State

Cactus

Dec. 27

Phoenix

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

Kansas State vs. Colorado State*

Pinstripe

Dec. 28

New York

ACC vs. Big Ten

Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Russell Athletic

Dec. 28

Orlando, Fla.

ACC vs. Big 12

Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State

Foster Farms

Dec. 28

Santa Clara, Calif.

Big Ten vs. Pac-12

Indiana vs. Utah

Texas

Dec. 28

Houston

Big 12 vs. SEC

TCU vs. Texas A&M

Birmingham

Dec. 29

Birmingham, Ala.

AAC vs. SEC

South Florida vs. South Carolina

Belk

Dec. 29

Charlotte, N.C.

ACC vs. SEC

North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Alamo

Dec. 29

San Antonio

Big 12 vs. Pac-12

West Virginia vs. Colorado

Arizona

Dec. 30

Tucson, Ariz.

MW vs. Sun Belt

Air Force vs. Idaho

Liberty

Dec. 30

Memphis, Tenn.

Big 12 vs. SEC

Baylor vs. Kentucky

Sun

Dec. 30

El Paso, Texas

ACC vs. Pac-12

Georgia Tech vs. Stanford

Music City

Dec. 30

Nashville, Tenn.

ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC

Minnesota vs. Georgia

TaxSlayer

Dec. 31

Jacksonville, Fla.

ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC

Miami vs. Arkansas

Citrus

Dec. 31

Orlando, Fla.

Big Ten/ACC vs. SEC

Florida State vs. LSU

Outback

Jan. 2

Tampa, Fla.

Big Ten vs. SEC

Nebraska vs. Florida

*Replacement team

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