Forde-Yard Dash: Five-Star QBs Are Struggling, While the Underdogs Are Thriving

Arch Manning and other elite recruits aren’t meeting expectations, while Josh Hoover, Darian Mensah and a collection of unlikely stars are rewriting the quarterback pecking order.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning, the consensus No. 1 recruit in class of 2023, and the Longhorns lost their rivalry game to Oklahoma on Saturday. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the meltdowns will be livestreamed.

First Quarter: Mamas, Don’t Let Your Sons Grow Up to Be Five-Star QBs

Sure, it sounds great—fame, acclaim, bags of cash. But when it comes time to live up to all of that on the college level, it can be rough going. The expectations and pressure that come with being an elite quarterback prospect can be unsparing.

The Dash is not here to make any final judgments—it’s way too early for that, in this season and in life—but five QBs who were declared five-star, top-three national recruits by varying rating sites over the last four years are struggling right now in college. The list:

Arch Manning (1), Texas

Background: Consensus No. 1 recruit in class of 2023 and among the most celebrated recruits in history.

Since then: Manning was brought along patiently at Texas, cocooned amid maximum stability—a football-savvy family; the same head coach and play-caller his entire career; additional skill-position reinforcement brought in via the transfer portal at premium prices.

Currently: Manning is 64th nationally in pass efficiency rating, 54th in total offense. The Longhorns are 79th in total offense.

He’s been pretty good, occasionally outstanding and occasionally disappointing. Seemingly not the stuff of a No. 1 NFL draft pick, which some people continue to say. There was the high of the comeback to beat Ohio State and then the low of the Red River Rivalry upset loss to Oklahoma on Saturday, when Manning threw two game-turning interceptions in the fourth quarter—a pick-six that gave the Sooners the lead, then one that launched the game-winning field goal drive.

Manning has faced some high-level defenses so far. It stands to reason that his statistics will improve when he sees the Florida, Mississippi and Mississippi State defenses the next three weeks. But this season, his second as the starter and fourth in college, was supposed to be a hard launch into stardom. A single loss doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but collectively the Texas offense has been a major disappointment to date. Manning and his coach, Steve Sarkisian, have to shoulder the biggest blame for that.

Dylan Raiola (2), Oregon

Background: No. 1 QB recruit in the class of 2024, according to Rivals and ESPN. 

Since then: Stability has never been a thing for Raiola. He attended three high schools, committed to four colleges and has played for two. He was the Game 1 starter at Nebraska as a freshman and had two different offensive coordinators that season. He and OC Dana Holgorsen were both back at Nebraska last year, when a disappointing sophomore season ended with a broken leg. Thereafter he transferred to Oregon to back up returning star Dante Moore. 

Currently: In his first Ducks start after an injury to Moore, Raiola is coming off the worst game of his career—a 6-for-19 horror show with two interceptions and a lost fumble in an upset home loss to UCLA. He was benched in favor of walk-on Brock Thomas in the second half.

To Raiola’s credit, he showed up to meet the media after the game: “Tough situations happen,” he said. “I’ve got to own it.”

Oregon QB Dylan Raiola was asked why he elected to meet with the media after Oregon's 17-15 loss to UCLA.

Worth your time.#GoDucks https://t.co/WtbPpABN3T pic.twitter.com/gt7df5QYew

— Bri Amaranthus (@BriAmaranthus) October 10, 2026

Raiola was better coming off the bench in relief of Moore against USC, but the Bruins were able to game-plan for him and made his life miserable. It’s unclear whether Moore will be back this week, or who would start in his absence if he’s not. (Thomas was pretty good, completing 11-of-15 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown. But he also fumbled a snap on a fourth-and-1.)

Bryce Underwood (3), Michigan

Background: No. 1 QB recruit in the class of 2025, according to 247 Sports. Underwood was committed to LSU but flipped to Michigan, reportedly with a $3 million annual payday playing a factor. 

Since then: Like Raiola at Nebraska, Underwood was the Game 1 starter. He’s started all 18 games since his arrival, with modest return on investment. 

Currently: The Wolverines are 0–2 in the Big Ten and have scored 20 or more points just once in five games, something that last happened in 1965. Underwood is 89th nationally in pass efficiency and 76th in total offense.

In Underwood’s 1 ½ college seasons, he’s had two head coaches and two offensive coordinators. The new coaching staff arrived via emergency after Christmas, following the firing of Sherrone Moore amid off-field scandal. The fit with head coach Kyle Whittingham and OC Jason Beck has been rocky, but Underwood’s production isn’t much different than it was last year. The Wolverines still have games left against the three highest-ranked teams in the Big Ten—Indiana, UCLA and Ohio State.

Faizon Brandon (4), Tennessee

Background: The No. 3 QB in the class of 2026, according to multiple sites. He was the No. 1 QB for a time in the 247 Sports ratings. 

Since then: Brandon was another Game 1 starter as a freshman and quickly showcased his talent as the Volunteers started 3–0. 

Currently: The Tennessee offense has bogged down in SEC play with Brandon benched or injured, or both. He sustained a shoulder injury in a loss to Texas but returned to the game, then was pulled after a struggling start at Auburn in favor of sophomore George MacIntyre. Brandon is 75th nationally in pass efficiency.

“Faizon ultimately didn’t play his best football,” coach Josh Heupel said after the Auburn game, which the Vols rallied to win. Brandon didn’t play Saturday against Arkansas, another game in which Tennessee had to come from behind. Heupel attributed Brandon’s lack of playing time against the Razorbacks to injury.

Jared Curtis (5), Vanderbilt

Background: The No. 1 QB in the class of 2026, according to ESPN. Curtis was committed to Georgia but flipped to the hometown Commodores last December. 

Since then: Curtis began his freshman season backing up veteran Blaze Berlowitz in the first two games but seeing playing time. He became the starter for Vandy’s first big test, against North Carolina State. Curtis subsequently started against Auburn and Mississippi while missing the Georgia game due to injury.

Vanderbilt is 0–3 in SEC play and has a league-low six touchdown passes to date. Curtis is 95th nationally in pass efficiency, with seven turnovers in five games. His arm talent and athleticism are undeniable, but the start has been slow. 

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A common denominator in every case but Manning’s? Immediate playing time and the pressure that comes with it. Talent doesn’t always equal readiness.

On the flip side, several lower-rated, veteran quarterbacks are having their moment. Five of note: 

Josh Hoover (6), Indiana

High school recruiting rating: No. 42 QB in the class of 2022, according to 247 Sports. 

Stability and continuity are great, but being plugged in as the quarterback of the Hoosiers under Curt Cignetti is better. Following career years from transfers Kurtis Rourke and Fernando Mendoza, Hoover arrived from TCU and made the Mendoza Leap from good to great. He’s second nationally in pass efficiency, as a guy who threw 33 interceptions the previous three seasons has thrown zero this year. Hoover connected with receiver Nick Marsh for a pair of long touchdowns to spark a fourth-quarter rally at Nebraska on Saturday, keeping the Hoosiers undefeated.

Jayden Maiava (7), USC

High school recruiting rating: No. 64 QB in the class of 2022, according to 247 Sports. 

Maiava has an amazing backstory, but his current play has also been captivating. He’s seventh nationally in passing yards per game, coming off a 301-yard performance in a road win at Penn State. After starting his career at UNLV and not even seeing the field as a redshirt, he’s now gone over 10,000 yards passing in his career. 

Noah Fifita (8), Arizona

High school recruiting ranking: No. 40 QB in the class of 2022, according to 247 Sports. 

The four-year starter for the Wildcats is playing his best football at the moment, throwing for at least 230 yards in every game for a 5–1 team. He had touchdown passes of 72 and 42 yards Saturday at West Virginia, despite having an injury-depleted receiving corps.

Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita throws a pass during the first quarter against West Virginia. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Darian Mensah (9), Miami

High school recruiting ranking: No. 112 QB in the class of 2023, according to 247 Sports. 

Mensah is another player who didn’t see the field his first year of college. Since then he’s lit it up at three stops: Tulane, Duke and now Miami, where he leads the nation in pass efficiency for the undefeated Hurricanes. Like Hoover, Mensah has not yet thrown an interception this season.

Ty Dieffenbach (10), UCLA

High school recruiting ranking: No. 46 in the class of 2023, according to 247 Sports. 

Dieffenbach almost literally came out of nowhere to play a key role in the Bruins’ upset win at Oregon on Saturday. He spent two years at Pittsburgh and never saw the field, then transferred to FCS Cal Poly and produced modest stats (1,305 passing yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions). Dieffenbach hadn’t gotten on the field yet this season for UCLA until called upon in relief of starter Nico Iamaleava in Autzen Stadium. The Bruins mostly ran the ball while he was in, but Dieffenbach produced just enough big plays—most notably a touchdown pass that put the Bruins ahead 17–6—to become an unlikely hero. His career FBS passing totals: six attempts, three completions, 43 yards.

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Dash Playoff Bracket 

Each week, The Dash selects and seeds the 12 teams who belong in the College Football Playoff as if today were Selection Sunday. 

The Field 

1. Georgia 
2. Miami 
3. Notre Dame
4. UCLA
5. Indiana
6. Alabama
7. Texas
8. Ohio State
9. Mississippi State
10. Missouri
11. BYU
12. Boise State 

Also considered: Kentucky, Mississippi, Wake Forest, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Utah, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Houston, Arizona, James Madison, New Mexico.

First Round

• No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
• No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Alabama
• No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Texas
• No. 9 Mississippi State at No. 8 Ohio State

Quarterfinals 

• Rose Bowl: No. 4 UCLA vs. winner of No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Indiana
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Notre Dame vs. winner of No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Alabama
• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Miami vs. winner of No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Texas
• Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. winner of No. 9 Mississippi State at No. 8 Ohio State

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