Forde-Yard Dash: Three Major Problems That Could Derail These Power Teams

Ohio State, Oregon and Oklahoma all found spectacular new ways to lose, raising serious questions about each program’s expectations and path forward.

Ohio State safety Jaylen McClain reacts to a missed interception in the Buckeyes’ loss to Texas. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the urge to throw goalposts in bodies of water remains strangely strong.

First Quarter: ‘O’ No

The three most prominent ‘O’ programs in the sport—Ohio State, Oregon and Oklahoma—all failed spectacularly on the same Saturday. The Buckeyes blew a 20-point lead for the first time in 15 years, at Texas. The Ducks became the first FBS opponent Oklahoma State has beaten in two years. In losing to Michigan, the Sooners were about as effective going airborne as a pre–Wright brothers airplane.

The last time all three tasted defeat on the same day was more recently than you might think: Nov. 26, 2022, when Ohio State lost to Michigan, Oregon was beaten by Oregon State and Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech. But it doesn’t happen often.

The postmortem on all three losses isn’t pretty, but The Dash is willing to stoke the fires of outrage and go there.

Ohio State (1)

What happened: Leading 23–3, the Buckeyes malfunctioned in every phase of the game. Ryan Day wins a lot of games, but when he loses it is often borderline inexplicable. Michigan 2024 is the most glaring example of an Ohio State meltdown on his watch, but Saturday night nearly matched it.

On offense, new coordinator Arthur Smith (2) saw his first big test unravel in the final four possessions. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed two of his final eight passes, with three incompletions while targeting superstar Jeremiah Smith (3). (Something simple to get the ball in Smith’s hands, like a bubble screen or a hitch, might have been enough to move the chains one time and stave off the Buckeyes’ slow-motion collapse.) Sayin’s two completions were an off-script, cross-field throw to a tight end and a five-yarder in the final seconds when Ohio State needed 35. There was no functional second option at wide receiver after Smith, with senior Brandon Inniss targeted just twice on the night, making one catch. Touted freshman Chris Henry Jr., was a non-presence in Austin.

On defense, the Buckeyes wilted late in the Texas heat. Arch Manning made several superb plays, particularly on a pair of fourth downs, for his finest moment as a collegian. But the Ohio State pass rush also disappeared, failing to record a sack in the final 36 minutes of the game, as Manning luxuriated in a pressure-free pocket in the fourth quarter. The Buckeyes’ excellent secondary gave up just enough open targets for Manning to exploit over the course of three long touchdown drives. And the run defense gave up some key yardage to Hollywood Smothers.

On special teams, kicker Connor Hawkins’s miss from 45 yards in the fourth quarter opened the door for Texas to score the winning touchdown. Hawkins had been reliable earlier in the night, making his first three field goal attempts, but those kicks also underscored that Ohio State left points on the field by not finishing drives.

Oregon (4)

What happened: The Ducks somehow failed to do what Tulsa and 20 other FBS opponents have done since Sept. 7, 2024, which is beat Oklahoma State. And it was hardly a fluke, as the Cowboys dominated the game statistically. Dan Lanning’s rookie coordinators (5)—Chris Hampton on defense and Drew Mehringer on offense—are failing to maximize the talent at their disposal. 

Hampton’s unit scored on a long pick-six against the Pokes, but also gave up 554 yards. That’s the most against an Oregon defense since Lanning’s first game as head coach, when the opponent was reigning national champion Georgia to open the 2022 season. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker dropped back 43 times and was not sacked once.

Offensively, Oregon has run the ball 55 times with just one of those carries going for more than 20 yards—the Ducks had 30 rushes for only 90 yards against Oklahoma State. They’ve also struggled on third down (a 34.6% conversion rate, 15th in the Big Ten) and bad on fourth down (0 for 6). For a team led by the potential No. 1 NFL pick in QB Dante Moore (6), much more is expected.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks inexplicably lost to Oklahoma State in Week 2. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma (7)

What happened: The Sooners’ frequent offensive struggles were glaring at Michigan, with quarterback John Mateer (8) devolving from a presumed strength to a liability. 

If you thought Sayin’s numbers were bad down the stretch, check out Mateer’s: He completed one of his final eight passes for three yards, and threw an interception that handed the game to the Wolverines in the fourth quarter. His struggles the latter half of last season were written off as the byproduct of a thumb injury, but that’s not a viable excuse now. Ripping overmatched UTEP in the opener isn’t the same as taking on Michigan, and Mateer’s 51.5% accuracy against the Wolverines was not going to get it done. 

The larger Oklahoma question remains its zealous support of head coach Brent Venables (9). For reasons that remain hard to fathom, he received his second contract extension in four seasons in August. He’s now being paid $10 million while winning 61.1% of his games—a sub–Gary Gibbs rate, and far below a Stoops-Switzer-Wilkinson-Riley-Fairbanks rate. 

There are five ranked teams remaining on Oklahoma’s schedule, including four in the top 10. But there is no way Venables will pay the price if this season goes south; he’s too expensive.

There is plenty of time for these three programs to get past this very bad Saturday, with plenty more opportunities for quality wins. But it’s never too early for a crisis, and they all have one.

Dash Playoff Bracket 

How The Dash would select and seed the College Football Playoff if today was Selection Sunday. Same rules apply as last week: If a team hasn’t played a power-conference opponent yet, it’s not getting ranked. Looking at you, Big Ten (10), where Indiana, USC, Penn State, Nebraska and Washington have nonconference slates consisting solely of Group of 6 conference teams.

1. Texas (2–0) 
2. Ohio State (1–1) 
3. LSU (2–0) 
4. Miami (2–0) 
5. Notre Dame (2–0) 
6. Texas A&M (2–0) 
7. Mississippi (2–0) 
8. Louisville (1–1) 
9. Mississippi State (2–0) 
10. Utah (2–0) 
11. Tulsa (2–0) 
12. Western Michigan (1–1, but really 2–0)

Also considered: Missouri, Alabama, UCLA, Duke, Tennessee, Colorado, SMU, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Auburn, Virginia, BYU, Cincinnati, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Michigan, Massachusetts.

First Round 

• No. 12 Western Michigan at No. 5 Notre Dame
• No. 11 Tulsa at No. 6 Texas A&M
• No. 10 Utah at No. 7 Mississippi
• No. 9 Mississippi State at No. 8 Louisville 

Quarterfinals 

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Miami vs. winner of No. 12 Western Michigan vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
• Peach Bowl: No. 3 LSU vs. winner of No. 11 Tulsa vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 10 Utah vs. No. 7 Mississippi
• Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Texas vs. winner of No. 9 Mississippi State vs. No. 8 Louisville 

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