College Basketball Best Bets: Who Has the Edge in Patriot League Championship?
College basketball experts Three Man Weave are back with their two best bets for Wednesday's slate. We're using the current odds from Westgate SuperBook (as of 12 p.m. ET) for these plays.
Fordham vs. George Washington
3MW's Pick: George Washington -3
Championship Week is Redemption Week for 90% of the college basketball landscape. Only twice during the course of the season do teams get to hit the reset button: the beginning of conference play and the start of conference tournaments. Whether your regular season resume reads 25-2 or 2-25, none of it matters any more.
Jamion Christian and George Washington are clinging to that mentality. The Colonials enter today’s conference tournament opener in the midst of five-game losing streak against an opponent that beat them twice in the regular season.
It’s quite jarring that George Washington was swept by the 8-22 Rams, who finished tied for last in the A-10 standings. It only takes a simple box score scan to reveal where the Colonials went haywire in those two regular season meetings: turnovers. George Washington coughed up the rock 28 times against the Rams, an astronomical number for two slow-paced games. Both George Washington and Fordham are ultra-cautious in transition on offense, which manifests in slower, low possession battles. Thus, the value of each and every possession is magnified, precisely why each Colonial turnover has been so costly in the prior two matchups.
George Washington’s main suspect in this turnover pandemic is Armel Potter. A veteran lead ball handler–one who boasts a multi-year track record of sound ball security–doesn’t fit the profile of a turnover culprit, but that’s what Potter has morphed into at times this year. The same Potter who started 16 games last season as the Colonials primary point guard and finished with one of the lowest turnover rates in the A-10, has had uncharacteristic spells of sloppiness this season.
However, Potter deserves a pass for these recent bugaboos. Injuries and roster re-shuffles have halted the development of any sort of rhythm or consistency, a diagnosis applicable to both Potter himself and the entire Colonial roster. Today’s tilt will mark Potter’s eighth game back from a hip injury that caused him to miss three games in early February. Potter only played 31 minutes in a regular season finale blowout to Dayton, a sign that Christian may have been holstering his star guard for the postseason. The same could be said of rebounding menace Arnaldo Toro, who clocked just four minutes off the bench in the regular season finale. It was only 10 days ago when Toro tormented VCU’s frontline to the tune of 10 points and seven rebounds.
Both Potter and Toro’s roller coaster seasons embody why the Colonials are undervalued heading into Championship Week. George Washington has shown flashes of its top gear when firing on all cylinders, including a road win at Duquesne (top-100 KenPom team), a win over Davidson (top-70 KenPom team) and a near upset of Richmond (projected NCAA Tournament team, per bracketmatrix.com). Today’s a perfect placemat for the Colonials to reach those previous highs, given the stakes can’t be any higher. Survive and advance … lose and go home.
Boston vs. Colgate
3MW Pick: Boston +7
Boston and Colgate meet in the Patriot final for the honor of representing their league in the NCAA Tournament. If BU wins, it’ll mark its first Big Dance appearance since Pat Chambers led the Terriers to the promised land in 2011. Colgate is seeking its second straight auto-bid after dominating the league once again in 2019-20. The Terriers are looking at a 16-seed should they emerge victorious, while the Raiders are likely granted a 14- or 15-seed.
These squads have already met twice this season, with the Raiders taking both contests in fairly convincing fashion. Colgate won the first matchup at home by nine, never trailing during the full 40 minutes. Boston struggled to get anything going inside the arc, finishing an uncharacteristic 39% of its 2PFGA. Max Mahoney, BU’s best player, played just 10 minutes and didn’t score. The Raiders poured in 1.23 PPP and scorched the nets from downtown on 12/30 shooting.
In the second game, BU jumped out to a 9-2 lead, but then the Raiders laid the smackdown, taking the game by 16 in the end. BU had it going inside this game, but managed to shoot just 4-of-21 from deep. Meanwhile, the Raiders were hot again, stroking 9-of-18 from outside the arc.
Since that last matchup, BU is 10-4 overall but just 1-8 ATS over its last nine. This game marks the first time the Terriers have been underdogs since February 1. Colgate is 12-3 since playing BU and has covered four of its last five games.
The key for Boston in this matchup is Mahoney, a 6-foot-8, 235-pound senior forward for whom the Raiders simply have no match. Mahoney put up 16 points on 8-of-13 shooting and grabbed 8 rebounds in game two, leading Boston’s much-improved interior performance.
BU will play through Mahoney on the block–the Terriers rank in the 98th percentile nationally in PPP on post-ups (per Synergy) and Mahoney is the catalyst. Conversely, Colgate ranks in just the 18th percentile nationally defending post-ups, per Synergy. The Terriers rank 17th in the country in FGA% at the rim (per Hoop-Math), while Colgate is only so-so at preventing chances near the bucket. Both teams found success on the offensive glass in the first two matchups, but BU is the much better defensive rebounding squad, an edge that could come in handy if Colgate isn’t white hot from deep.
Stopping Colgate’s outside shooting will be the toughest task for Boston. As alluded to above, the Raiders have shot 21-of-48 against the Terriers from three this season (43.8%) and lead the Patriot in 3P% in conference play. BU has good size on the perimeter with Walter Whyte and Javante McCoy and is capable of at least taking away clean looks from the deadly Colgate shooters. Stopping transition will also be key for the Terriers, as the Raiders play at the second-fastest pace in the Patriot. Per Hoop-Math, BU ranks 32nd nationally in limiting transition opportunities.
If Colgate comes out guns blazing, it’ll waltz to a second consecutive NCAA Tournament. But, if Colgate is even average from outside, BU will have not only a fighting chance to stay within the number (a large spread for a championship game), but also to win the game outright.
3MW Record: 36-27-3
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