Forde Minutes: Major-Conference Tournament Previews and Top Seed Line Questions
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (dancing shoes sold separately at the Morehead State Eagles, Longwood Lancers, Stetson Hatters and Drake Bulldogs):
Rearranging the top seed line
The final weekend of the regular season produced some noteworthy outcomes in showdown games. They left the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee with a couple of questions to consider with its No. 1 seeds:
Question one: Did the Houston Cougars (1) pulverizing the Kansas Jayhawks move them to the No. 1 overall seed ahead of the UConn Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers?
What the Big 12 newbie Cougars did in H-Town on Saturday to the traditional kings of the conference was borderline unfit for younger TV viewers. Houston led 19–2, then 34–9 and 53–24 before coasting home with a 30-point annihilation of the Jayhawks. That further solidified Kelvin Sampson’s team atop the NCAA NET rankings and many of the predictive metrics as well.
How does it resonate with the committee? We’ll see. Committee chair Charles McClelland has a media call Wednesday that might offer some insight before his group hunkers down for the rest of the week.
Purdue had been the overall No. 1 when the early top 16 was released last month. UConn has often appeared to be the most dominant team. But Houston won America’s deepest league by two games and is roaring into Kansas City for the Big 12 tourney. The Cougars’ 13–3 Quad 1 record is two wins better than both UConn and Purdue (11–3).
However, the committee will also have to consider whether that blowout says as much about Kansas (2) as it does about the Cougars. The Jayhawks have been a lousy road team, going 2–7 in league play away from the friendly confines of Allen Fieldhouse. The preseason No. 1 team is sliding to the three-to-four-seed range at this point.
Houston guard Jamal Shead and the Cougars routed Kansas on Saturday.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
Question two: Did the Tennessee Volunteers (3) losing at home to the Kentucky Wildcats leave them susceptible to being bumped in favor of, say, the North Carolina Tar Heels (4)?
The Volunteers had seemingly grabbed the fourth No. 1 seed with a late, seven-game winning streak that included triumphs over tourney teams Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers and South Carolina Gamecocks. But on the same day the Wildcats were beating Tennessee in Knoxville, the Tar Heels went into Duke and finished a season sweep of the Blue Devils.
North Carolina is 7–4 in Quad 1 games and 13–6 in Quads 1 and 2 combined. Tennessee is 7–6 and 13–7, respectively. Also worth noting: The Heels beat the Vols head-to-head in Chapel Hill in late November.
Past committees sometimes seemed to disregard late results in conference tournaments—what happens this upcoming Saturday and Sunday might not matter a whole lot—but this might be an either/or scenario the NCAA keeps in play for a while. The ACC tournament ends Saturday while the SEC extends to Sunday. If either the Heels or Vols flame out early, that could decide things.
The Madness has already begun, don’t miss it
If you’re waiting for the big bracket to come out before embracing the emotions and unpredictability of March, you’re doing it wrong. The fun has already begun in an epic first week of conference tourney action.
Thank you, March gods, for the gift of the Atlantic Sun (5). In the Tuesday night quarterfinals alone, the following happened: The No. 10 seed took down the No. 1 seed; the Lipscomb Bisons and North Alabama Lions exchanged dramatic shots in the final seconds, with UNA beating the buzzer and getting the last laugh; and the Austin Peay Governors rallied to force overtime against the North Florida Ospreys and prevailed in the extra period, leading to coach Corey Gipson jumping atop the scorer’s table in camo pants and combat boots to celebrate.
In the semifinals, Stetson’s Stephan Swenson made two threes in the final 21 seconds to stop the Jacksonville Dolphins’ improbable run. Then the Hatters (6) earned their first NCAA bid by beating Austin Peay in the final.
Put the Sycamores in the bracket or we riot
The angst of the Indiana State Sycamores (7) will be a discussion point all week. After losing a classic Missouri Valley Conference final to Drake, the committee has to make room for a 28–6 team that won a top-10 conference in the regular season and is objectively awesome to watch play basketball.
Coach Josh Schertz rattled off the litany of reasons why his team deserves inclusion after the 84–80 defeat against Drake, in which the Sycamores rallied from 18 down to one up in a span of six minutes. Indiana State is No. 29 in the NCAA NET, which should be safe. The Sycamores’ 20 games played away from home are the most of anyone in the NET top 50, and their 13 true road games are topped only by Princeton’s 14. All five of their Quad 1 games were played away from home. And due to injuries, Indiana State was not at full strength in half of its six losses.
Then there is the simple marketing element of the Big Dance: Does the NCAA really want to exclude a high-scoring, fast-playing team led by Cream Abdul-Jabbar, aka Larry Blurred, aka College Jokić, when it has become a national curiosity? In favor of some drab, mid-pack, high-major team with 14 losses?
Little Dance, Part II
Time to preview the second wave of conference tournaments, which leap into action Tuesday.
(If you missed Little Dance Part I, it’s here.)
Atlantic Coast Conference
When: March 12–16.
Where: Washington, D.C.
Conference rank: Fifth out of 32.
NCAA locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson Tigers. A startlingly small number for this league at this stage of the season.
Bubble teams: Virginia Cavaliers, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Pittsburgh Panthers. Wednesday could be a momentous bubble day in the league, with a Wake-Pitt knockout game potentially on the docket that afternoon. The Virginia Tech Hokies may have a prayer with a deep run.
Top seed: North Carolina. After stunningly missing the tournament last season, Hubert Davis retooled his roster, toughened his team and won the league easily.
Agent of chaos: Pitt (8) has won nine of its last 11 games, chucking (and making) a lot of threes to resurrect its season. The Panthers are riding the hot hand of Blake Hinson, who has made 37 three-pointers in those nine victories.
Best player: Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (9) has elevated his play for his senior season. Caleb Love’s transfer to Arizona was good for both players.
Best coach: Virginia’s Tony Bennett (10) is the only coach left in the league with a national championship ring and has also won this tournament twice. He’s had more than his share of massive March flops, but he’s certainly the most accomplished guy in the conference.
Hot seat: Kenny Payne’s tenure as coach of the Louisville Cardinals will end sometime this week, probably Tuesday. There is some disenchantment with Kevin Keatts at North Carolina State, plus the annual retirement speculation for both Leonard Hamilton at Florida State and Jim Larrañaga at Miami.
Minutes pick: North Carolina.
Big 12
When: March 12–16.
Where: Kansas City.
Conference rank: First out of 32.
NCAA locks: Houston, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, Texas Tech Red Raiders, BYU Cougars, Kansas, Texas Longhorns. The TCU Horned Frogs and Oklahoma Sooners play Wednesday in a game that clinches a bid for the winner and possibly leaves the loser feeling angst. No league will have more teams in the Dance than this one.
Bubble teams: Only the TCU-Oklahoma loser, and even then that team should be O.K. Maybe Kansas State enters the picture with a run to the final, but the Wildcats likely need to win it.
Top seed: Houston. What a first season in the league.
Agent of chaos: Cincinnati Bearcats (11). The No. 11 seed has been in almost every game and won three Big 12 road games. If they dispatch the West Virginia Mountaineers on Tuesday, they draw a vulnerable Kansas in the second round.
Best player: Jamal Shead (12). The Houston point guard is a winner’s winner, and he’s been playing his best ball over the last month.
Best coach: Bill Self (13) has two rings, but this has not been his best work. Houston’s Sampson (two Final Fours) and Scott Drew (one national title) have their teams playing much better right now.
Hot seat: West Virginia interim coach Josh Eilert is a goner. Oklahoma State’s Mike Boynton and Central Florida’s Johnny Dawkins also have been feeling the heat.
Minutes pick: Houston.
Big East
When: March 13–16.
Where: New York City.
Conference rank: Second out of 32.
NCAA locks: UConn, Creighton Bluejays, Marquette Golden Eagles. Not just locks, but high seeds.
Bubble teams: Seton Hall Pirates, St. John’s Red Storm, Villanova Wildcats, Providence Friars. No league tournament should have more bubble drama than this one.
Top seed: UConn (14). The Huskies won the league by four games and have just a single loss since Christmas.
Agent of chaos: St. John’s (15). The Red Storm have won five in a row since Rick Pitino publicly gave up on the season. Now, he’s back in Madison Square Garden with a chance to disrupt and lock down a bid. Disregard the Johnnies at your peril.
Best player: Tristen Newton (16). Last season, UConn fans were nervous about asking an East Carolina transfer to pilot a team with national championship aspirations. This season, Newton is indispensable, leading the team in scoring (15 points per game), rebounding (7.1) and assists (5.8).
Best coach: Pitino has the most rings (unless the NCAA sent a repo man to collect the vacated 2013 one). Danny Hurley has the most recent title—and a great chance to add another.
Hot seat: The DePaul Blue Demons already jettisoned Tony Stubblefield. Everyone else is pretty stable, though there has been speculation about Sean Miller wanting out at Xavier.
Minutes pick: UConn. Find the weakness. In conference play, the Huskies are the best offensive team and the best defensive team, according to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers.
Big Ten
When: March 13–17.
Where: Minneapolis.
Conference rank: Third out of 32.
NCAA locks: Purdue, Illinois Fighting Illini, Northwestern Wildcats, Wisconsin Badgers, probably Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Bubble teams: The Michigan State Spartans are probably O.K., but losing four of their last five might put a little urgency on their Thursday game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Iowa Hawkeyes need to do some work.
Top seed: Purdue (17). Back-to-back champions dominated the league and should take a lot of confidence with them into Minneapolis. It’s next week when the Purdue wellness checks begin.
Agent of chaos: The Indiana Hoosiers (18) have won four straight entering the tourney, their longest Big Ten winning streak since January 2023. A brutal shooting team is doing a better job putting the ball in the basket. Center Kel’el Ware has averaged 22.5 points, 12.3 rebounds and three blocks during the current winning streak.
Best player: Purdue put Zach Edey’s jersey in the Mackey Arena rafters before he’s even done wearing it. That makes him the pretty obvious choice here.
Best coach: Tom Izzo (19) isn’t just the only coach in the league to win a national championship. He’s the only one who’s been to a Final Four. But this season has been a big disappointment to date.
Hot seat: Chris Holtmann already has been fired at Ohio State (his interim replacement, Jake Diebler, is an intriguing 5–1). Juwan Howard, 8–23 in Year 5 at Michigan, might be next to go.
Minutes pick: Purdue.
Mountain West
When: March 13–16.
Where: Las Vegas.
Conference rank: Seventh out of 32.
NCAA locks: San Diego State Aztecs, Nevada Wolf Pack, Boise State Broncos, Utah State Aggies. These are the best of times for the Mountain West. Now they just need to back up the bids and win some games next week.
Bubble teams: Colorado State Rams, New Mexico Lobos. The Rams are on more solid footing than the Lobos, who need to make some things happen this week. The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels have a puncher’s chance.
Top seed: Utah State (20). The school made a great hire in landing Danny Sprinkle from the Montana State Bobcats, and he wisely got big man Great Osobor to follow him.
Agent of chaos: UNLV (21) is 10–2 over its last 12 games, with the only losses to Nevada. The Rebels floated up to a No. 4 seed and get a prime shot at a quality win Thursday against San Diego State.
Best player: Jaedon LeDee is the latest in a long line of San Diego State players to rise when called upon in an expanded role. He leads the league in scoring at 20.5 points per game and is third in rebounds at 8.2.
Best coach: Brian Dutcher just took San Diego State to the national championship game last year, so this is a no-brainer.
Hot seat: Justin Hutson is finishing a second straight 20-loss season at Fresno State and has not earned an NCAA bid in his five previous years.
Minutes pick: Boise State (22). The third-seeded Broncos bounce into Vegas off a road triumph over San Diego State and will likely face a fading New Mexico in the quarterfinals. Boise is a great rebounding team, which can be a major advantage at tournament time as defenses force more missed shots.
Pac-12
When: March 13–16.
Where: Las Vegas.
Conference rank: Sixth out of 32.
NCAA locks: Arizona Wildcats, Washington State Cougars. The Mountain West has been a demonstrably deeper conference than the Pac-12 out West.
Bubble teams: Colorado Buffaloes, Oregon Ducks. The Buffaloes are squarely on the fault line and would feel much better about things with a win in the quarterfinals Thursday. The Ducks need to win multiple games.
Top seed: Arizona (23). The Wildcats have thrown in several randomly weird clunkers but still have been the most consistent and talented team in the league. When locked in, they have dominated.
Agent of chaos: USC Trojans (24). Do they have the talent? Absolutely. Do they have the focus and competitive drive? To be determined. But they have at least won their last three games, including an upset of Arizona on Saturday night. With freshmen guards Isaiah Collier and Bronny James, curiosity is high.
Best player: Keion Brooks Jr., Washington Huskies. The team has been bad enough to get Mike Hopkins fired, but don’t blame Brooks. He’s the Pac-12’s leading scorer and No. 7 rebounder.
Best coach: UCLA’s Mick Cronin and Oregon’s Dana Altman are the only two in the league with Final Four experience. Since Cronin’s appearance is more recent, we’re going with him.
Hot seat: As noted above, Hopkins is out at Washington at the end of the season. Jerod Haase should be out at Stanford, but we’ll see. Bobby Hurley at Arizona State and Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State might have both outlived their usefulness.
Minutes pick: USC. Nothing could bring down the curtain on Pac-12 basketball more appropriately than a 14–17 team winning four straight to take the automatic bid.
SEC
When: March 13–17.
Where: Nashville.
Conference rank: Fourth out of 32.
NCAA locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Florida Gators.
Bubble teams: The Mississippi State Bulldogs are probably in, but beating the LSU Tigers on Thursday would cinch it. The Texas A&M Aggies needs to beat the Ole Miss Rebels on Thursday and probably add another win in the quarterfinals Friday.
Top seed: Tennessee. The Volunteers took steps last offseason to upgrade their offensive firepower while still maintaining their defensive identity. That resulted in their first outright SEC title since 2008.
Agent of chaos: Florida (25). Since Jan. 31, the Gators have beaten Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama. As the No. 6 seed, Florida could face a faltering Alabama in the quarterfinals and Kentucky in the semis.
Best player: Dalton Knecht (26), Tennessee. The most explosive spree scorer in the country has had seven games scoring more than 30 points this season, topped by his career-high 40 on Saturday in the loss to Kentucky. Can he lead the Vols to another title this week in Nashville?
Best coach: John Calipari (27) of Kentucky owns the only championship ring in the league. Auburn’s Bruce Pearl has been to the most recent Final Four.
Hot seat: There has been a lot of grumbling among Vanderbilt Commodores fans about Jerry Stackhouse, whose team hasn’t won more than one in a row since mid-November.
Minutes pick: Tennessee. Kentucky has the firepower and is playing well, but the Vols have the stopping power and an abundance of veterans who have been through SEC tourney battles in the past.
American Athletic Conference
When: March 13–17.
Where: Fort Worth.
Conference rank: Ninth out of 32.
Top seed: South Florida Bulls. They are one of the biggest surprises in the nation, going from four straight losing seasons to 23–6 and 16–2 in their first season under Amir Abdur-Rahim. But they also showed some late vulnerability in an upset loss to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Saturday, extinguishing any hopes of an NCAA at-large bid.
Agent of chaos: Nobody would be surprised if the Memphis Tigers win the whole thing or lose their first game. Or any result in between.
Best player: The Minutes gives a slight edge to Florida Atlantic’s Johnell Davis over Memphis’s David Jones.
Best coach: May took the Florida Atlantic Owls to the Final Four last year, which is an astonishing feat given the history of that program.
Minutes pick: Florida Atlantic (28). The Owls have at times been quite bad defensively and demonstrated awful shot selection, but they’re also big-game players who have now reached that time of year again. Expect to see them play at their highest level in quite a while.
Atlantic 10
When: March 12–17.
Where: Brooklyn.
Conference rank: Eighth out of 32.
Top seed: Richmond Spiders. This was a development nobody saw coming, certainly not after Richmond started the season 5–5. But the Spiders put together winning streaks of eight and six games in league play to capture their first A-10 title.
Agent of chaos: The Duquesne Dukes, seeded sixth, have won four straight and six of their last seven to loom as a possible troublemaker.
Best player: DaRon Holmes II, Dayton Flyers. The 6’9” Holmes can put the Flyers on his back, and at times he’s needed to. He’s scored 20 or more points six times in the last seven games and had five double doubles in that span.
Best coach: Frank Martin of the UMass Minutemen took South Carolina to the 2017 Final Four. Next he will take Mass to the MAC.
Minutes pick: Dayton (29). The third-seeded Flyers have been the league’s best team overall, though uneven scheduling helped mask that. They’re by far the A-10’s most offensively efficient team.
Big West
When: March 13–16.
Where: Henderson, Nevada.
Conference rank: 16th out of 32.
Top seed: The UC Irvine Anteaters won the league by two games and have a KenPom rating that is 50 spots higher than the second-best team in the league (UC San Diego).
Agent of chaos: The fifth-seeded UC Riverside Highlanders have won seven of their last nine, and one of the losses in that stretch was in overtime.
Best player: Fifth-year UC Davis guard Elijah Pepper has scored more than 2,200 points in his career. He’s shooting 92.3% from the foul line and has made 39 of his last 40.
Best coach: Dan Monson at Long Beach State is the guy who actually birthed the Gonzaga dynasty, taking the Zags to the Elite Eight in 1999 before making an unwise career move and going to Minnesota.
Minutes pick: UC Irvine (30).
Conference USA
When: March 12–16.
Where: Huntsville, Ala.
Conference rank: 15th out of 32.
Top seed: Sam Houston Bearkats. In a new league with a new coach, they won it with a closing seven-game winning streak. An upset road win at the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last week decided the top two in the conference.
Agent of chaos: Beware the Liberty Flames lurking in mid-pack as the No. 4 seed. Every player on the team missed at least three games, which might have curtailed development.
Best player: Let the Louisiana Tech duo of Isaiah Crawford (16.5 points, six rebounds) and Daniel Batcho (14.9, 9.8) split the award.
Best coach: Liberty’s Ritchie McKay has taken two teams to the Big Dance in the last four years and won a game there in 2019, upsetting Mississippi State.
Minutes pick: Liberty (31).
Ivy League
When: March 16–17.
Where: New York.
Conference rank: 13th out of 32.
Top seed: Princeton Tigers. Princeton backed up its Sweet 16 run of a year ago with another excellent season, going 23–3 and only being beaten handily once (at the Cornell Big Red in January). The Tigers remain an excellent offensive team that is fun to watch. (In a four-team tourney that is conducted over just two days, the top seed has a short path.)
Agent of chaos: The Brown Bears won their last six games, including road upsets over Cornell and the Yale Bulldogs, to lock down the fourth seed.
Best player: Princeton guard Xaivian Lee went from a role player as a freshman to a star as a sophomore, averaging 17.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists.
Best coach: Any coach who gets an Ivy League team to the Sweet 16 has done very well, and that’s Princeton’s Mitch Henderson.
Minutes pick: Princeton (32).
MAAC
When: March 12–16.
Where: Atlantic City, N.J.
Conference rank: 25th out of 32.
Top seed: Quinnipiac Bobcats. The Q had a bad two weeks, losing four straight from Feb. 10–25, but outside of that has gone undefeated in 2024.
Agent of chaos: The fourth-seeded Rider Broncs were 8–16 on Feb. 10. Now they’re 15–16.
Best player: Fifth-year senior Mervin James of Rider is averaging 19 points and six rebounds, with five games scoring 20 or more in the current seven-game winning streak.
Best coach: None of the current group of coaches has ever won a MAAC title. But first-year Iona Gaels coach Tobin Anderson did author one of the two most shocking first-round upsets in NCAA tournament history last year, when he led the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights past No. 1 seed Purdue.
Minutes pick: Quinnipiac (33).
MAC
When: March 14–16.
Where: Cleveland.
Conference rank: 24th out of 32.
Top seed: Toledo Rockets. Here we go again. This is the fourth straight season the Rockets have won the MAC, but they’ve not won the league tournament and automatic bid in any of the previous three. (Last year, they at least made it to the title game.)
Agent of chaos: Fourth seed Central Michigan Chippewas have played five overtime games since Jan. 30, winning four of them. A team that is addicted to drama could do just about anything this week.
Best player: Akron Zips forward Enrique Freeman is a double double waiting to happen, with a whopping 28 of them this season. That’s the most in the nation.
Best coach: Akron’s John Groce has taken three schools to the NCAA tournament and one (Ohio in 2012) to the Sweet 16.
Minutes pick: Ohio Bobcats (34). The second-seeded team in the tourney has won six straight and 10 of their last 12, most of them handily.
MEAC
When: March 13–16.
Where: Norfolk, Va.
Conference rank: 30th out of 32.
Top seed: Norfolk State Spartans. They’ve lost just twice in the last two months, taking control of the league race by playing the most disruptive defense in the MEAC.
Agent of chaos: North Carolina Central Eagles. They’ve won four of their last five, and veteran coach LeVelle Moton has taken four UNCC teams to the Big Dance.
Best player: Jamarii Thomas of Norfolk State leads the league in scoring at 17.5 points and is second in assists at 3.8 and steals at 2.0. He’s scored an equal number of points at the foul line as from two-point range (174 each).
Best coach: Robert Jones has taken Norfolk to the NCAA tourney two of the last three years, missing out on a third straight trip by a single point last year.
Minutes pick: Norfolk State (35).
SWAC
When: March 13–16.
Where: Birmingham, Ala.
Conference rank: 32nd out of 32.
Top seed: Grambling State Tigers. The Tigers (17–14, 14–4) are trying to lock down the first NCAA bid in school history.
Agent of chaos: Beware the second-seeded Alcorn State Braves, winners of nine straight and seeking their first NCAA bid in 22 years.
Best player: Jackson State Tigers senior Ken Evans Jr. has had three 30-point games this season and averaged 26.3 points in their three-game winning streak to end the regular season.
Best coach: Texas Southern’s Johnny Jones has won the last three SWAC tournaments and taken three different schools to the NCAA tourney.
Minutes pick: Texas Southern (36). You can’t ignore the history of the third-seeded Tigers in this event.
WAC
When: March 13–16.
Where: Las Vegas.
Conference rank: 14th out of 32.
Top seed: Grand Canyon Antelopes. They’ve had a spectacular season, going 27–4 with the four losses by a total of 23 points. Being able to field the same starting lineup every game has helped.
Agent of chaos: The seventh-seeded Abilene Christian Wildcats put it together late, winning seven of their last eight, including an upset of Grand Canyon.
Best player: Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster is 24 years old and on his fourth school, going from junior college to Kansas to DePaul to GCU. At DePaul, he collapsed at halftime of the first game and had to be resuscitated. A second collapse, months later during a pickup game, kept him out of organized basketball for nearly two years before taking the court this year with the Antelopes. He’s averaging 19.4 points and 5.6 rebounds.
Best coach: Grand Canyon’s Bryce Drew has won the league tourney two of the last three years.
Minutes pick: Grand Canyon (37).
Coach who earned his comp car this week
Tad Boyle (38), Colorado. Boyle’s Buffaloes have won six straight to give themselves a chance at an NCAA bid, including a big road win over fellow bubble-dweller Oregon last week. The best coach in school history has now authored 13 winning seasons in 14 years at Colorado.
Coach who should take the bus to work
Jim Larrañaga (39), Miami. From a Final Four last year to this: a nine-game losing streak, a 15–16 overall record, 6–14 in the ACC and a Tuesday Day of Shame Game in the opening round of the ACC tourney against Boston College. It’s been quite a year-over-year tumble.
Buzzer beater
When hungry and thirsty in St. Louis, The Minutes recommends a stop at Maggie O’Brien’s (40) downtown. Order the smoked wings and one of a large variety of beers on tap. You may have to endure soccer being on a lot of the TVs, but they’ll find a spot to put on basketball for you. Check it out and thank The Minutes later.
