Microsoft is predicting the NFL season using statistics and fan sentiment

Microsoft is turning its considerable computing power towards a very important topic: Predicting each game of the 2014 NFL season.

Author:
Extra Mustard
Publish date:
Sep 4, 2014

Microsoft is turning its considerable computing power towards a very important topic: Predicting each game of the 2014 NFL season.

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The company's Bing search engine correctly predicted all but the third place game of the World Cup's knockout rounds, and will be using a similar model for the other football this fall. However, they will be adding an interesting twist, incorporating fan sentiment into the prognostications, according to the company's Walter Sun.

In addition to this prior model, we identify fans on Web and Social sites and track their sentiment to understand the aggregate wisdom of this expressive crowd. This introduces data which statistics alone cannot capture, providing real-time adjustments which surprisingly can capture injury news and other substantive factors in win probabilities.

Madden 15 Week 1 predictions

Fans with Windows phones will have the odds for each of the season's games sent straight to their phones, reports Max Nisen of Quartz.

GALLERY: 2014 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS VOL. 3

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers Vol. 3

Dan Herron - RB, Indianapolis Colts

Herron is a name for fantasy owners to stash away, as he probably won’t get drafted in standard leagues. However, if Trent Richardson continues to struggle, then eventually Herron will get a chance for significant carries. Ahmad Bradshaw can’t carry the load by himself.

Lance Dunbar - RB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys expect Dunbar to play a large roll in the passing game despite the presence of DeMarco Murray. His skillset would translate to a nice fantasy player if Murray gets injured at any point. Dunbar is a nice bench option in standard leagues.

Isaiah Crowell - RB, Cleveland Browns

Ben Tate isn’t exactly a sure thing in his first season as a starter and rookie Terrance West has failed to impress. Crowell could step in and emerge as fantasy option if Tate gets injured or underperforms. Crowell, an undrafted free agent, was a five-star recruit before off-the field issues derailed his college career.

Ronnie Hillman - RB, Denver Broncos

Last year Knowshon Moreno proved that any running back playing with Peyton Manning has RB1 potential. If Montee Ball struggles at any point, Hillman is the next man up.

Roy Helu - RB, Washington Redskins

The Redskins have a new coaching regime and we’re not 100 percent sure how the workload will be distributed. Helu is talented enough to steal touches from Alfred Morris if Jay Gruden decides to switch things up.

James White - RB, New England Patriots

Bill Belichick likes to scare fantasy owners with a rotation of running backs. Ask anyone who has ever owned Stevan Ridley how frustrating this could be. White is talented enough to make an impact at some point if Belichick decides to give him a shot.

Matt Asiata - RB, Minnesota Vikings

Obviously, Asiata isn’t going to help a fantasy owner unless Adrian Peterson gets injured. But if he gets a chance at regular carries, the Utah product is capable of producing in Norv Turner’s offense.

Mike Williams - WR, Buffalo Bills

Williams always seems to be an afterthought and this season is no different. He’s a red-zone threat who earned a starting gig with a nice preseason. It’s too bad E.J. Manuel is the guy throwing him passes, because he’s severely underrated as a fantasy asset.

Allen Hurns - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

The undrafted free agent out of Miami had a terrific preseason and showed nice chemistry with rookie QB Blake Bortles. With limited talent on the Jacksonville depth chart, Hurns has a legitimate chance to make help fantasy owners happy.

Cody Latimer - WR, Denver Broncos

A new toy for Peyton Manning will always has value and Latimer is talented enough to emerge in his rookie campaign. The rookie from Indiana will be a hot waiver-wire addition if he scores a TD on opening weekend.

John Brown - WR, Arizona Cardinals

The third-round rookie from Pittsburg State has caught the attention of Bruce Arians and is expected to be a significant part of the offense. His style mirrors T.Y. Hilton, who shined as a rookie under Arians.

Kenny Britt - WR, St. Louis Rams

Britt appeared to be the league’s next dominant receiver before injuries derailed his career. He’s apparently healthy and could lead the Rams in targets if he manages to stay on the field.

Eric Decker - WR, New York Jets

The veteran receiver is being overlooked, and for good reason, because he’s no longer catching passes from Peyton Manning. However, Decker will get a ton of targets for the Jets and is a nice value at his current average draft position.

Danny Amendola - WR, New England Patriots

The fragile receiver entered last season as a trendy fantasy option in the high-powered Patriots offense. This season, he’s an afterthought and could easily step up.

Harry Douglas - WR, Atlanta Falcons

Douglas showed last season that he can produce WR3 Fantasy number after Julio Jones went down with an injury. Douglas returns to being Matt Ryan’s third option with Jones and Roddy White back at full strength, but he could see ample targets with Tony Gonzalez retired.

Stedman Bailey - WR, St. Louis Rams

Bailey is suspended for the Ram’s first four games because of a failed PED test. However, he has a legitimate shot of emerging as the best receiver on the team as the season progresses.

Ryan Tannehill - QB, Miami Dolphins

Tannehill enters 2014 with a new offense under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and should improve from a fantasy standpoint. He has the tools and weapons to be a steady bye-week replacement if things break right for the third-year starter.

Carson Palmer - QB, Arizona Cardinals

Looking for a QB to plug in during bye weeks? Palmer could be your man in his second season of Bruce Arian’s high-powered vertical attack.

Derek Carr - QB, Oakland Raiders

Don’t rely on Carr in the early weeks of the season, but he’s a player to keep an eye on in deeper formats. The Raiders should be trailing in a lot of games and they have an offense that could lead to cheap production for the rookie QB.

Tim Wright - TE, New England Patriots

The Patriots acquired Wright during the preseason and it appears he could eventually play an Aaron Hernandez-like role. Tom Brady has proven that he loves throwing to his tight ends in the red zone. Wright caught 54 balls as a rookie in Tampa Bay last season and the sky is the limit… if he learns the Patriots’ offense.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The second-round rookie from Washington is 6-foot-6 and scored 21 TDs over 38 games in college. With Tim Wright out of town, Seferian-Jenkins could emerge as a fantasy weapon if he’s the athletic freak people think he is.

- Brendan Maloy