Fantasy football 2014 draft strategies: Tiered player rankings

Author:
Michael Beller
Publish date:
Aug 14, 2014

One thing we know about all fantasy football drafts is that there will be an element of unpredictability. All it takes is one or two rogue picks to send your draft hurtling in a direction that you did not expect. That’s why you have to head into any draft with a few strategies upon which you can rely. This week, we’ll take a look at certain strategies that can help you hoist the fantasy hardware in December. Some will pertain to specific draft slots, while others will apply regardless of where you fall in your draft. Our third installment falls into the latter category, discussing how tiered player rankings can prepare you for the unpredictable actions of others in the later rounds. Our previous installments covered the best course of action for owners with late first-round picks and targeting great offenses over great individual players.

FANTASY FOOTBALL POSITION RANKINGS AND PROJECTIONS:

More often than not, the toughest choices in a fantasy draft come when you’re choosing between two guys who play different positions. It’s relatively easy to decide if you like running back X or running back Y better. These two players will fill the same position on your team, and the nature of their on-field job is the same, making for an easy apples-to-apples comparison. It’s much harder when you need to make a choice between running back A and wide receiver B. Now you’re not simply deciding which player you think is better. You must also determine which player better fits your roster, and the domino effect that each player's selection would have on the rest of your draft. This makes things a whole lot trickier.

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft 1.0: 12-team, standard scoring

Luckily for fantasy owners, there is a way to make even these choices as close to apples-to-apples as possible, and it doesn’t require much of a tweak from your regular draft prep process. Every owner in your league will show up to the draft with a cheat sheet, ranking players at every position, and, likely, a set of overall rankings regardless of position. All you need to do to take your draft prep to the next level and make those position vs. position decisions as painless as possible is divide each position into tiers.

Breaking up your rankings into tiers will help you in multiple ways. First, you won’t be as rattled by curveballs as your leaguemates, especially in the middle rounds. For example, one mid-round player I like a lot this year is Torrey Smith. I think this is the season that both the yards and touchdowns are there for him and that he plays like a top-20 receiver. However, all it takes is one owner in my league to like him even more or to be better situated to grab him for me to miss out on a guy that I’ve been targeting all summer.

Without tiers, I might fall into a trap and force myself into taking the next wideout in my rankings, or I might end up ignoring the position for the time being and going in another direction. With tiers, however, I will have the understanding that there is a group of receivers being taken around Smith in a typical draft, including Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders, with considerable upside. Thanks to tiered rankings, I’ll be able to quickly rebound from getting sniped for a guy I really wanted on my roster.

FANTASY FOOTBALL BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: AFC | NFC

Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: Wide receiver position primer

Second, tiers allow fantasy owners to easily find the best available players, rather than forcing themselves to take a player at a specific position. Again, let’s use missing out on Smith as our example here. He’s coming off the board early in the fifth round in an average 12-team draft, so by this point you will already have the foundation of your roster.

Let’s say that Smith was the last receiver in a tier, and the next one includes Maclin, Sanders, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Sammy Watkins and Reggie Wayne. That gives me six options that I feel are all grouped closely together. Meanwhile, let’s say that Ben Tate and Stevan Ridley are the only players available in my top remaining running back tier before the position drops off to the next group. Rather than having to decide if the wide receiver Cooks is better than the running back Ridley, I can easily see that the best way for me to get a player in each of my top remaining tiers is to go running back first and wait on a receiver. I may not get my ideal choice at receiver, but I’ll get one in the same tier as my top guy while also getting the best running back remaining on my board.

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

Fantasy football 2014 draft preview: AFC busts

Finally, grouping players in tiers forces fantasy owners to focus on value. As has been said many times in this space, once Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are off the board, the next 10 to 12 quarterbacks could conceivably end the season in any order. Realistically, the second tier of quarterbacks could be 10 guys deep. However, Matthew Stafford, the No. 4 quarterback by average draft position, is coming off the board toward the end of the fourth round in a 12-team league. Andrew Luck, the quarterback with the fifth-highest ADP, is typically selected about 10 picks later. At the opposite end, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo, the 11th, 12th and 13th quarterbacks off the board in a typical draft, have ADPs of 90.6, 94.9 and 98.2, respectively. Creating tiers will help you determine if Stafford in the fourth round or Luck in the fifth really makes more sense than Cutler in the eighth Romo in the ninth.

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Stafford’s ADP is on par with guys like Pierre Garcon, Roddy White, Ryan Mathews and Frank Gore. Luck is sharing a draft-day neighborhood with Shane Vereen, DeSean Jackson and T.Y. Hilton. Cutler and Romo, on the other hand, are coming off the board at the same time as depth backs and receivers like Devonta Freeman, Jeremy Hill, Rueben Randle and Dwayne Bowe. Knowing this allows us to make some elementary comparisons. Think about which of the following groups of players would you rather have:

Stafford/Freeman or Cutler/Mathews?
Luck/Bowe or Romo/Jackson?
Stafford/Randle or Cutler/White?
Luck/Hill or Romo/Gore?

I would rather have the second group each and every time, and that’s because Cutler and Romo are just not that far behind Stafford and Luck in terms of expected production, and both could end up ranked better at the end of the season than their higher-priced counterparts. Dividing players into tiers makes that, and a number of other seemingly impossible draft-day conundrums, much easier to figure out.

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Knile Davis - RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Davis is about as important a handcuff as you’ll find in the league. Davis would impact fantasy standings if Jamaal Charles goes down at any point. Davis picked up 81 yards and two TDs on 27 carries when Charles was resting Week 17 last season.

Terrance West - RB, Cleveland Browns

The rookie will need to beat out veteran Ben Tate for touches, but his upside is enormous. Browns running back coach Wilbert Montgomery recently told reporters, ''He has that Ricky Watters, Walter Payton, lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.''

Dri Archer - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s possible that the undersized third-round pick is restricted to kick return duty in his rookie year. It’s also possible that Archer emerges as a dynamic RB/WR who could score anytime he touches the ball.

Lache Seastrunk - RB, Washington Redskins

The Baylor product is behind Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the depth chart and has developed a reputation for having awful hands. He actually dropped 10 balls and only caught nine during his two years in college. That said, Seastrunk’s running ability would make him a fantasy asset if Morris goes down with an injury.

Ka’Deem Carey - RB, Chicago Bears

Carey is an all-around running back who is capable of stepping in and producing for fantasy owners if Matt Forte gets hurt. He’s the type of rookie who would be a hot commodity if he were drafted by a team without an elite running back.

Devonta Freeman - RB, Atlanta Falcons

There is a legitimate chance that Freeman will eventually start over Steven Jackson; the rookie's average draft position will skyrocket with a dominant preseason. The former FSU back should see the field a lot if he can handle pass protection.

Christine Michael - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Michael is an instant stud if Marshawn Lynch goes down. Either way, the Seahawks have hinted at a committee approach and Lynch’s brief holdout may not have helped matters for the veteran running back. Michael has the skill set to provide RB1 numbers if he receives enough carries.

Carlos Hyde - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Anyone who saw Carlos Hyde at Ohio State knew he wouldn’t get buried in San Francisco, even with a crowded backfield. He’s arguably the most talented rookie RB and is one Frank Gore injury away from fantasy stardom.

Tre Mason - RB, St. Louis Rams

Many fantasy owners are high on Zac Stacy entering the season. But ask anyone who drafted Daryl Richardson in 2013 if Jeff Fisher is afraid to make a change at running back. The dynamic rookie Tre Mason is too talented to ride the pine forever and he’d turn into a nice fantasy option if given carries.

Chris Polk - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Even with Darren Sproles in town, Polk would hold a ton of fantasy value if LeSean McCoy were to miss time at any point. Chip Kelly’s offense turns RBs into fantasy stars and Polk is the clear-cut backup to McCoy.

Charles Sims - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The rookie from West Virginia is expected to be an immediate handcuff to Doug Martin for fantasy purposes. Smith should contribute in passing situations early, but could steal carries from Martin as the season progresses.

Markus Wheaton - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Wheaton is expected to inherit a starting gig with Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders gone. The sophomore from Oregon State has big-play ability and could easily emerge as a must-start fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Marqise Lee - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lee is a candidate to lead the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie, but his competition isn’t exactly elite. He should be able to rack up catches and yards with Jacksonville expected to be playing from behind more often than not.

Kenny Stills - WR, New Orleans Saints

Stills has a ton of breakout potential coming off a rookie season in which he posted 641 yards on 32 catches with five TDs. He’s a big-play threat on ever possession and should easily surpass the 46 targets he received last season. He might only need 50 catches to score double-digit TDs.

Kelvin Benjamin - WR, Carolina Panthers

The 6-foot-5, 240-pound, No. 28 overall pick is a perfect red-zone target and he could help the Panthers win games immediately. For fantasy purposes, he’s merely a WR3 or a WR4 until he proves he can be more than just a TD-dependent gamble on a weekly basis.

Tavon Austin - WR, St. Louis Rams

As a rookie in 2013, Austin only caught 40 passes for 418 yards and never really found a true role. He’s admitted that the adjustment from college to the NFL took a toll on him and he continuously dropped passes early in the season. If things click in his second year, Austin has the skillset to be a star.

Justin Hunter - WR, Tennessee Titans

The second-year receiver showed signs of his high ceiling last season with a few big games down the stretch. Hunter has the tools to develop into a WR1 in his prime and should play a prominent role on young Titans’ offense.

Jordan Matthews - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

DeSean Jackson’s departure opens the door for Matthews to step up. The 2014 season could turn into a perfect storm for Matthews to succeed with Jeremy Maclin coming off a torn ACL and Riley Cooper coming off a career season.

Eric Ebron - TE, Detroit Lions

The Lions turned heads when they selected Ebron No. 10 overall in May’s Draft. It might take a season or two for the UNC product to reach his potential, but Ebron is an elite fantasy TE in the making. He’s been compared to Jimmy Graham and has the skillset to live up to his lofty expectations.

Ladarius Green - TE, San Diego Chargers

The 6-6, 237-pound Green is an obvious red-zone target and has the tools to be an impact fantasy option if he receives ample targets. Antonio Gates, the incumbent TE in San Diego, is 34 and slowed significantly down the stretch in 2013. Green caught 17 passes for 376 yards and three TDs last season, highlighted by a three-game stretch in which he caught nine balls for 206 yards and two scores.

Fantasy football 2014 draft strategies: Tiered player rankings

POSITION PRIMERS:
QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST