Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy and Betting Recap
Super Bowl LVIII is now in the rearview mirror, as the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers, 25-22 in overtime. The game wasn’t great statistically (or overall) until the fourth quarter and into overtime (only the second Super Bowl to go to an extra frame), when the Chiefs made big plays to tie and eventually win the contest.
If we eliminate the two pushes and one pick ’em game in the first 57 Super Bowls, favorites are now 28-27 (51%) against the spread. The 49ers were unable to cover the 2-point spread despite holding a 10-point lead in the first quarter. Favorites are now 37-20 straight up in Super Bowls. Depending on where you made your wager, the game went under by half a point (47.5), though it did drop to 46.5 closer to kick on some books. The under has now come up 29 times and the over, 28 times. That omits Super Bowl I, which didn’t have any over/under odds.
Mahomes passed for 333 yards and two TDs in Super Bowl LVIII and he also led the Chiefs with 66 yards rushing.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Mahomes, who was awarded the Super Bowl MVP award for the third time in his career, finished with 25.9 fantasy points. That’s the most points he’s scored in a game since Week 7! Of course, he did need overtime to accomplish it. He was actually held to 17.5 fantasy points in regulation, which is more in line with the norm for him in what was more often a very disappointing season in the stat sheets.
Quarterbacks have now won the Super Bowl MVP 32 times, or 55% of the time.
From a fantasy perspective, Mahomes’s 25.9 points ranks 12th among quarterbacks all time in the Super Bowl. It’s also the most points he’s ever scored in the big game.
The game’s best fantasy line didn’t come from Mahomes, however, but Christian McCaffrey. The fantasy MVP had eight catches, 160 total yards, one score and 28 fantasy points. That ranks 10th all-time in Super Bowls among running backs. He is the third 49ers runner in the top 10, joining Roger Craig, who had 38.5 points in Super Bowl XIX, and Ricky Watters, who had 31.8 points in Super Bowl XXIX.
CMC, who will be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in most 2024 fantasy drafts, scored a touchdown in all but three games this season. He had 26 scores in all.
The next best fantasy performance from a non-quarterback in Super Bowl LVIII came from Jauan Jennings, who shocked the world with a touchdown pass, the first of the game (imagine the payout for that player prop!), and a scoring catch. He finished with 19 points and was a game-winner in daily fantasy league lineups.
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Travis Kelce, who was held to a single catch at halftime, went off in the second half to finish with nine catches, 93 yards and 18.3 points. He has now posted three of the top 12 best fantasy stat lines for a tight end in the Super Bowl. His opposing tight end, George Kittle, didn’t fare nearly as well with a meager 2.4 PPR points.
Kittle joins a long list of big-name fantasy stars who didn’t produce in the stat sheets, including Isiah Pacheco who had six catches but only 13.2 points, Rashee Rice (10.4), Brandon Aiyuk (7.9) and Deebo Samuel (7.1). In fact, both Jennings and Mecole Hardman (14.7) scored more fantasy points than the star trio of receivers.
For those of you who are already looking ahead to the 2024 NFL season, SI Sportsbook has posted the odds for the Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers lead the way at +600, followed by the Chiefs (+850), the Baltimore Ravens (+1000), the Buffalo Bills (+1200), the Cincinnati Bengals (+1500) and the Detroit Lions (+1700).
