Patrick Mahomes Among Potential 2026 Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts

Fabiano: Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough among 2026 fantasy football breakout quarterbacks

Quarterback busts can often be hard to find.

It’s not because every player meets his statistical expectations because we obviously know that’s not true. It’s more difficult because in this day and age, there’s really only a handful of quarterbacks who are drafted highly enough to become a true fantasy football bust in traditional one-quarterback leagues (obviously this would be different in Super flex formats).

Let me give you an example.

Last year, Jayden Daniels, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were all examples of busts. They were all among the first 10 players drafted at their position, and each failed in their attempt to meet such expectations. However, was Murray really a bust with an average draft position in the 80s? You could argue that because he didn’t cost a lot in drafts as an eighth- or ninth-round pick, he was very easily replaceable in fantasy lineups. In fact, his backup in Arizona, Jacoby Brissett, went on to post huge numbers and was a league winner.

So, for this list of quarterback busts, I’m going off these parameters: either I’m projecting the player to fail to meet expectations based on his ADP, or he is coming off a massive statistical season that he won’t duplicate. So, let’s call these quarterbacks you should beware of in drafts, or who could fail to meet expectations based on a previous high level of fantasy success.

QUARTERBACK BUSTS

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

I’m on the fence about Daniels. He was one of my favorite breakout players in 2024, and he made good on those expectations. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to seven starts last season, during which he averaged 16.3 points per game. That’s 4.6 fewer points than he had averaged in Year 1. While he’s back at 100%, Daniels’s thin frame and style of play make him more prone to injuries. The Commanders passing attack is also devoid of reliable receivers beyond Terry McLaurin, and that could hurt his level of production as a passer in 2026.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Mahomes was in the midst of a solid statistical season in 2025, averaging more than 20 points per game. That was before he sustained a torn ACL that required surgery, ending his year early. It should also be noted that Mahomes rushed for career highs in yards (422) and touchdowns (5) despite missing the final three games. Coming off a knee injury and with the addition of Kenneth Walker III, it’s hard to expect Mahomes to put up similar rushing totals in 2026. That doesn’t mean he won’t still be a QB1 in fantasy drafts, but he hasn’t been an elite quarterback since 2022. Don’t fall for the name in drafts; Mahomes is no longer a high-end option.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Lawrence is coming off his best season as a pro, averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game to finish fourth in points among quarterbacks. I fear his magical season, however, mostly due to his likelihood of regression as a runner. In 2025, Lawrence rushed for a career-high 359 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s more rushing scores than he had recorded in his previous two years combined! Lawrence isn’t Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, either, so those totals are destined to fall. As a result, I’d avoid him, because rushing regression is imminent.

Matthew Stafford, Rams

Stafford is coming off an MVP season that saw him post better than 4,707 passing yards and a career-high 46 touchdown passes. That was good enough to finish third in fantasy points. His 20.6 points-per-game average was also his best since 2019, and it was nearly seven more than he averaged in 2024. Stafford also avoided injuries and started at least 16 games for the first time since 2021. The Rams defense improved big-time with the additions of elite pass rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Trent McDuffie, too, so Stafford will likely be in fewer negative game scripts. Everything points to the veteran regressing in 2026.

Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals

Brissett might be an odd addition to this list, but hear me out. He’s coming off his best season as a pro based on stats, throwing for 3,366 yards and 23 touchdowns in 12 starts. Brissett was the QB6 from Week 6-18, scoring more points than Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Let’s be honest: That’s not going to happen again (beware the magical year) in 2026. So, I wouldn’t go into fantasy drafts thinking you’re going to steal Brissett in the late rounds. Chances are, he’s going to fall back into being a middling backup fantasy option.

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