The XFL, with its various different rules compared to the NFL, continues to make it difficult for oddsmakers to set appropriate spreads and totals. The sharp information from Vegas, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season. Let's get into Week 4's numbers.
Week 4 Lines
(Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Los Angeles Wildcats (-7) at New York Guardians
When: Saturday, February 29 at 2 p.m. ET
Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks (-12)
When: Saturday, February 29 at 5 p.m. ET
Houston Roughnecks (-1) at Dallas Renegades
When: Sunday, March 1 at 4 p.m. ET
DC Defenders (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Vipers
When: Sunday, March 1 at 7 p.m. ET
The biggest move in the Week 4 lines involves DC, who opened as 1.5-point road underdogs and since flipped to 2.5-point favorites. There has been a significant adjustment on all the unders out in Vegas, as just one game in Week 4 has a posted total over 45 points at the SuperBook.
The XFL offers some immense betting opportunities because books are unsure of their algorithms since they fail to possess any historical data to input into their models. Plus, the new rules cause unpredictable scores you would not traditionally see in NFL or NCAA games.
The league clearly wants more scoring to attract fans, however bettors have now seen eight of the first 12 games go under the posted totals offered by sportsbooks.
There are no traditional PAT kicks in the XFL, as teams are only allowed to go for a one-point conversion (from the 2-yard line), a two-point try (from the 5-yard line) or a three-point attempt (from the 10-yard line). However, teams continue to struggle to convert PATs, converting just 19 of 60 attempts (32%). The Roughnecks became the only team to successfully convert a three-point attempt in Week 3 against Tampa Bay.
Week 4 Sharp Plays:
Houston Roughnecks -1
The sharps have backed the Roughnecks as a small road favorite. Dallas has shown improvement over the past two weeks, but Landry Jones is still showing signs of rust coming off his return from injury. The Roughnecks' three-headed monster of PJ Walker, James Butler and Cam Phillips will be the difference in this one, helping Houston remain the only undefeated team in the XFL. Back the best offensive team at the window with confidence.
DC Defenders +1.5* (Since moved to -2.5)
The sharps feel this was a huge overreaction by the oddsmakers off one bad performance by Cardale Jones against Los Angeles. Tampa Bay has shown virtually nothing on offense through three games, scoring the second fewest points (39) of any club. The sharps see no reason why the Vipers should have opened as home favorites in Week 4.
This is the perfect ‘get-right’ spot for DC, who will be highly motivated off such a bad performance in Week 3. I advised SI Gambling followers on Twitter on Monday night to grab the points immediately.
Don't wait on this one because this line will only continue to soar. Grab the free money at less than a field goal while you still can.
Los Angeles Wildcats -7
The sharps are jumping all over fading a dysfunctional Guardians team for a second straight week. The Guardians are easily the worst team in the league through three weeks. Bet this game now before it steams beyond a full touchdown.
XFL Season Record: 7-0 ATS
The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 36-9-1 ATS (80%) run on all released plays. The sharp information out in Vegas supplied only to Sports Illustrated was perfect going 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, culminating with a winning selection on Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. Since November, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks. Be sure to follow SI Gambling for the wiseguy action from Vegas all year long!
MORE FROM SI: