Bet the Over on Dalvin Cook’s Rushing Prop

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Despite missing two games in 2019, Vikings running back Dalvin Cook finished with 1,135 rushing yards and scored 13 touchdowns on the ground. However, he failed to play all 16 games for the third time in his short three-year career and missed two games in 2019 due to a shoulder injury. According to Draftkings sportsbook, the Vikings rusher has an Over/Under rushing total of 1,160.5 yards which would be a career-high. 

We asked Sports Illustrated’s fantasy and gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and InsideTheVikings editor Will Ragatz their thoughts on if gamblers should take the over or under. 

Read the full transcript from their conversation:

Bill Enright: In 2019, Dalvin Cook rushed for over 1100 yards in just 14 games but can he get to 1160 yards in 2020. That's the magic number the oddsmakers have his rushing yard player props set at. Let's go to Frank Taddeo, our gambling analyst, and Will Ragatz from InsidetheVikings for some analysis on taking the over or under when it comes to Dalvin Cook, Frankie, Vikings' running back Dalvin Cook, are you taking the over or under, my friend?

Dalvin-Cook

Frank Taddeo: Yeah, I absolutely love the over here, Bill. I don't envision any way he doesn't surpass the number of yards that he had last season and it's not going to take him much. He's only going to need to average 72.5 yards per game over a full 16 game season. We know last year he was only able to participate in 14 games. He missed two full games but even some of those games that he actually did participate in, he wasn't fully healthy and he was banged up. For a team that's so run-heavy, they're going to become even more run-heavy, especially early in the season. We know that Stefon Diggs is up in Buffalo and maybe it's going to take time for Justin Jefferson to assimilate to this offense. So I think they're going to rely on the legs of Dalvin Cook even more. Also, he could probably lead the team in targets or maybe come in second behind Adam Thielen. He'll be right up there but for the rushing yards to me, it's a clear over, Bill. I love it. Jump on the over at any chance that you get.

Dalvin Cook

Bill Enright: Will, let's go over to you. I know Dalvin Cook still the focal point of this Vikings offense. Do you think he can get to the over?

Will Ragatz: Yeah, when you talk about Dalvin Cook's production, it's really all going to come down to "can he stay healthy for a full 16 game season." As a rookie, he had the ACL injury, in 2018 he had a hamstring injury, and then last year he dealt with a couple of upper body injuries that slowed him down. Yet, we know that when this guy is healthy, he's going to put up numbers. His first career game in 2017, he ran for 127 yards. Last year, through the first ten games, when he was fully healthy at his peak, he averaged 99 rushing yards a game, putting him on pace for over 1500. I have the over here. I think he's going to stay healthy this year. I think he's too good of a player to not go over that number if he does stay healthy. And as Frankie said, the Vikings are still going to be run-heavy this year. They lost Stefon Diggs. I think this is a good bet to go over here.

Bill Enright: I like it when we're all in agreement on taking the over. Will and Frank, thank you for your insight. We have plenty more player prop analysis. You can find it by going to our SI.com/gambling.

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