2026 British Open Predictions: Our Picks to Win and Surprise at Royal Birkdale

Believe it or not, it’s time for the fourth and final major of the 2026 season.

The British Open heads back to Royal Birkdale this week for the first time since 2017. A field of 156 golfers will battle it out all week to join Rory McIlroy, Aaron Rai and Wyndham Clark on the list of this year’s major winners.

Who will win, and who won’t make it to the weekend? Here are predictions from the Sports Illustrated staff ahead of the 2026 British Open:

2026 British Open picks: Winner and final score

Andy Nesbitt: Chris Gotterup, 9-under. The 26-year-old from New Jersey has been one of the hottest golfers on the planet over the past year or so, racking up four wins dating back to the 2025 Scottish Open. He’s more than ready to take the next step, and a hard and fast Royal Birkdale seems like the perfect spot for him to get it done.

Brian Giuffra: Matt Fitzpatrick, 12-under. Fitz’s game has been running hot all year. He has two outright wins and another in the team event with his brother. He played well on the DP World Tour to end last season and was T3 at the Scottish last week. I said I was backing him in that event and this week. I’m not backing away from one of the best ball strikers in the event.

Tom Dierberger: Jordan Spieth, 10-under. There is only one major in which Spieth has never missed the cut. Yep, you guessed it, the British Open. Spieth, who won the British Open the last time it was held at Royal Birkdale in 2017, has only two PGA Tour wins since hoisting the Claret Jug. But he’s performed well at majors this year with two top-20 finishes at the Masters and PGA Championship. The course looks much different this year than it did in 2017, but how much fun would it be to watch Spieth win it again?

BETTING: British Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Justin Rose, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick

2026 British Open picks: Surprise player to miss the cut

Andy Nesbitt: Scottie Scheffler. It would be a HUGE surprise if Scheffler missed the cut because he just went 78 straight events without missing one before doing just that last week at the Scottish Open. Yes, he’s the No. 1 player in the world. And yes, he’s the defending champion this week. But something has felt off about his game this year. I think his driver lets him down, his putter won’t be able to save him and he’ll be heading home on Friday night. If you need me, I’ll be way out on a limb watching a lot of golf this week.

Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry. The former Champion Golfer of the Year missed the cut at the Scottish Open and has five MC this season. One of those was the U.S. Open. He missed the cut the last time the Open was held at Royal Birkdale and also MC at the 2023 Open. This season, his putting and tee game have been spotty. Would I be surprised if he made the cut? No. Do I think he could miss it? 100%.

Tom Dierberger: Aaron Rai. It’s been a dream season for Rai, who won the PGA Championship and finished tied for 11th place at the U.S. Open. But dreams come to an end at some point. Rai has missed the cut twice in his last four tournaments, including last weekend at the Scottish Open.

Quiz: Can you name the last 10 British Open winners? (with hints)

2026 British Open picks: Dark horse player to finish in top 10

Andy Nesbitt: Adam Scott. The 45-year-old Australian is playing in his 101st straight major championship, which is incredible. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2020 and he missed the cut at the British Open last year. But he did finish T22 the last time it was held at Royal Birkdale and the gut says the savvy veteran with one of the sweetest swings in golf can get in contention this week and possibly win the Claret Jug, which he won way back in 2012.

Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley. Different people have different definitions of darkhorse, but I’d put Henley in that range with +5100 odds at DK. Yet, he was T3 at the Masters and T12 in his most recent event, the Travelers. He was also T10 in this event last year and T3 the year before. He made the cut when the Open was here in 2017. Flatter courses where ball control matters more than length are good for Russ. I like him to contend this week.

Tom Dierberger: Min Woo Lee. Lee has been playing in majors since 2021 and has just one top-five finish (the 2023 U.S. Open) to show for it, but his time has come for another. Lee finished second at last week’s Scottish Open, just two strokes behind the winner Tom Kim. Let him cook.

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