2026 Cadillac Championship Betting Models, Picks: Doral Offers a New (Old) Challenge

Cameron Young has elevated his game this season. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

For the first time since 2016, we’re heading back to Trump National Doral in Miami on the PGA Tour with the Cadillac Championship this week. A signature event limited to just 72 players in the field (one of which is not Rory McIlroy), the long course that we saw for over 50 years on Tour should be a fun and relatively new test, even with some familiarity. 

The Dick Wilson-designed course immediately becomes one of the longest on the PGA Tour as the par-72 layout checks in at 7,739 yards. It will play firm, which will mitigate some of that distance, but there’s a reason that Doral has a history of being called a bomber’s paradise. That, however, is not the way to truly separate yourself at this place, even if it is part of the equation. 

So let’s dive into this week’s model after cashing Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage (we refuse to acknowledge the Zurich’s existence from a model perspective), and see who comes out as our picks for the 2026 Cadillac Championship.

Key Stats for Doral

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

You’re probably stunned to see strokes-gained approach, right? It’s going to be heavy in the model most weeks, and this is no exception. Though it’s a long course, finding the opportunities to score best starts with the approach play. 

1. Collin Morikawa (+1.169)
2. Adam Scott (0.943)
3. Justin Rose (0.842)
4. J.J. Spaun (0.815)
5. Akshay Bhatia (0.789)

Proximity from 200-225 yards on approach

But again, this is a long, long golf course. So many of the approach shots we’ll see this week are going to be coming from over 200 yards out. That’s why we’re also closely monitoring proximity from that range in the model this week. 

1. Shane Lowry
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Austin Smotherman
4. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
5. Nicolai Hojgaard

Strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds

Now we start to widen the lens, adding both off-the-tee and around-the-green play to the mix with tee-to-green numbers to see who has overall been hitting it well.

1. Cameron Young (+1.705)
2. Collin Morikawa (1.680)
3. Scottie Scheffler (1.563)
4. Patrick Cantlay (1.281)
5. Adam Scott (1.220)

Strokes-gained on long courses

Once again, we’re back to the length of Doral, and specifically the players who have had the most success on the oonger golf courses that we see on tour. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.988)
2. Collin Morikawa (1.307)
3. Jordan Spieth (1.164)
4. Justin Rose (1.150)
5. Adam Scott (1.108)

Cadillac Championship model rankings this week

It’s a ball-striking heavy model this week, but with a little more than just that thrown in the mix. We start with strokes-gained approach and proximity from 200-225 yards at the top (15% each), followed by strokes-gained tee to green, strokes-gained long courses and strokes-gained around the green (10%) each. We then factor in driving distance (9%), bogey avoidance (8%) and strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (8%) before we finish it off with some longer courses to compare with strokes-gained at Doral, Augusta, Bay Hill, Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines (3% each). With all of that, here is how the top 10 shakes out. 

1. Adam Scott
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Justin Rose
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Sudarshan Yellamaraju
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Nicolai Hojgaard
10. Cameron Young

2026 Cadillac Championship picks

Cameron Young +1275 (DraftKings)

Considering that we watched Cameron Young finish T3 at both the Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this season, how do you not like him at a relatively similar type of golf course given that he’s still striking the crap out of the ball. 

Young not only leads the field in strokes-gained tee to green over the last 24 rounds, but he’s been balanced with that as he’s eighth in strokes-gained approach. He’s also third in bogey avoidance, which should all add up to him having a ton of chances to score this week and not put himself out of contention. 

We’ve simply seen that Young has elevated his game this year, and now he’s heading to a spot where he’s a phenomenal fit. I’d feel foolish if he wasn’t on the card given that. 

Jake Knapp +3000 (DraftKings)

I don’t think anyone should be all that shocked that Jake Knapp wasn’t particularly promising at the RBC Heritage given the fit there, but he was 11th at Augusta and T6 at Houston the week prior before that T74 in Hilton Head. And the ball striking has me quite intrigued. 

We know that Knapp is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour, but he’s recently paired that with some top-shelf approach play. He ranks 16th over the last 24 rounds, but has gained in his last three events, including two where he had more than four strokes gained on approach. Combine that with previous success at Torrey Pines and good long approach play as well, the fit makes a lot of sense. 

Injuries are a bit of a concern right now with Knapp, but the upside at this place is too high for me to not have some skin in his game. 

Adam Scott +4200 (DraftKings)

Even though the results haven’t necessarily been consistent for Adam Scott this season, I can’t look away from his fit this week—especially as one of only a handful of golfers in the field who has experience when it comes to Doral. 

Scott has been showing up at the longer courses on tour this year, most notably with a solo fourth at Riviera and a T11 at Bay Hill. Ball-striking has been unreal for him this year, though, ranking fifth in strokes-gained tee to green and second in strokes-gained approach in this field, while still somehow being one of the better drivers in terms of distance in the field as well. His putter has been betraying him, and while that’s a worry, the ball-striking is good enough to warrant some action. 

I don’t want to overrate experience at Doral, and I don’t think I am. It’s what helps put me over the edge for someone who already seems like a great fit. 

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