Houston Astros Seek to Continue AL West Dominance After Key Losses

The stranglehold that the Houston Astros have had over the AL West Division has been a strong one. The Astros have won the division crown seven out of the last eight years.

However, the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs and the apparent loss of third-base slugger Alex Bregman, FanGraphs has reflected such in their projections for the division title.

According to FanGraphs, Houston is projected third in the West and with an expected total of 84 wins and a 29.3% chance to win the division. The Texas Rangers are predicted to lead the AL West with 85 wins and a 32.8% chance and the Seattle Mariners with an expected 84 wins and 31.5% chance.

There is still hope for the Astros since the projections are so close and they are projected with a 53.6% chance to make the playoffs.

The reason for the dip in optimism is a result of the foregone conclusion that Bregman will no longer call Space City home.

Coupled with the trade of Tucker, that leaves a significant hole at the top of the lineup. In 2024 the two sluggers combined for an average slash line of .275/.362/.519 and combined for 49 home runs, 124 RBIs in 223 games. The star pair also combined for a 7+ WAR.

Houston did receive a substantial haul from the Cubs for what could be a one-year rental of Tucker. Isaac Paredes is a budding star at third base and offers three years of club control. In 2024, Paredes had a slash line of .238/.346/.393. This was based on 153 games, with 19 home runs and 80 RBIs. There is a good chance that production will increase immensely as Paredes is introduced to the Crawford Boxes.

Additionally, the Astros received potential starter Hayden Wesneski and prospect infielder Cam Smith.

Another answer to combat the departures was the three-year, $60 million deal for Christian Walker. He finished with 26 home runs and 84 RBIs in 130 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2024. Not only will Walker help solidify the offense, but he provides a huge boost to infield defensive metrics.

While the Astros still feature perennial stars in Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, the projected outfield leaves space for one more move from general manager Dana Brown.

Houston will need to rely on its pitching staff to carry it to the playoffs for another year.

The starting rotation is led by ace Framber Valdez, who looks to build on his fantastic season of 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA.

Following his lead is budding star Hunter Brown. After early mechanical and repertoire changes, Brown was dominant, going 11-5 after the changes and posting a 2.51 ERA in 147 innings.

Rounding out the rotation are three more young arms with immense potential, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Wesneski.

The organizational pitching depth does not stop there, as both Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto could get their chances.

Lastly, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia are all on the comeback trail from injuries.

The bullpen is lock solid, anchored by one of the best closers in the Majors, Josh Hader.

After dealing former closer and incumbent setup guy Ryan Pressly to the Cubs, Brown had zero doubt who would fill the role in 2025.

"So (Bryan) Abreu will pitch more in the eighth inning this year, so, he'll probably pitch in games where we are ahead or, you know, probably tied, Brown said.

Other reliable arms like Kaleb Ort, Tanner Scott, and Bryan King can bridge the gap to the starters.

Currently, I have them second in the division behind the Rangers and just in front of the Mariners in a tight three-team race.

The 85-win range seems about right, but as previously stated, there is plenty of time for further additions for the outfield.

Never say never, as Bregman has yet to sign with another club.

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